Time for one from the heart

Matt Lewis, in a Politics Daily contribution, says Republicans historically tend to follow one of two models when selecting a presidential nominee to challenge an incumbent Democrat. It's either the first person in line (i.e., the one whose turn it is) or "one from the heart" (i.e., a passionate conservative). Since the GOP has only nominated two conservatives -- Goldwater and Reagan -- in the modern era, Republicans more often than not go with the first person in line. How's that worked out for them? So-so:

That's how the Grand Old Party opted for Richard Nixon, John McCain, Bob Dole -- and even George H.W. Bush.

[...]

Today, the perfunctory, "next in line" theory suggests that the most likely GOP nominee will be former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. While Romney dropped-out of the 2008 campaign earlier than Mike Huckabee, most conservatives concede that Romney finished in second place – and that is certainly the view held by the McCainiacs. So, by the logic that led to the nominations of McCain and Dole, it's Romney's turn. Even if rank-and-file conservatives find him less than perfect concede that he's paid his dues.

While this model has produced wins and losses, the wins have given us two statist GOP presidents, one of whom couldn't manage to get reelected.  The other way to go is to nominate the candidate who ignites passion and stirs the heart:

"That's how the GOP chose conservative firebrand Barry Goldwater as its standard-bearer in 1964, a decision that guaranteed a landslide victory for Democrats.

[...]

But what about the other model? Who is this year's Goldwater – and, just maybe, our Reagan? Who is the person movement conservatives really want? It sure ain't Mike Huckabee. And it might be Sarah Palin.

Lewis reminds us that Palin is the only potential GOP candidate for the White House who has star power, one of many things she shares with Ronald Reagan. Barry Goldwater had it too. While Goldwater lost in a landslide, Reagan won in an electoral college landslide and was reelected in another:

Moreover, as all conservatives know, the great Goldwater defeat of 1964 set the table – although it took awhile – for the Reagan Revolution. (Ronald Reagan, of course, is sui generis: He fits both models: The old guy who has waited his turn and the true blue conservative that the GOP "base" really wanted.)

We don't have Reagan waiting to run in 2012, and so it's a time, as The Gipper would say, for choosing. After years of holding our noses and defending Republican establishment types, conservatives might find it fun to take a big chance on an unapologetic conservative.

The question is, can Mitt Romney turn out the base? With John McCain at the top of the ticket, too many conservatives didn't even bother to show at the polls in 2008. And while Romney isn't as hated by the base as is McCain, he doesn't exactly inspire them, either. He has taken too many positions on too many issues, and while Mitt likes to tout RomneyCare as one of his crowning achievements, it tends to make conservatives view the man from Bain Capital as just another statist.

So is it time for the guy whose turn it is? Or, after a string of less than satisfying moderates, is it a conservative's turn for the first time in over 30 years? Many conservatives feel that it's long past time for one from the heart.

- JP