At The Campaign Spot, NRO's Jim Geraghty has been reviewing the polls of House races released since September 23, where 39 Democrats, mostly incumbents, are trailing their GOP challengers. Geraghty did not count those races where the GOP challenger is only a few points down or within the margin of error, and polls have been conducted in some districts. Coincidentally, 39 seats are exactly the number the GOP needs to win to take control of the House.
Of the 39, 18 are in districts where Gov. Palin has made endorsements. Those 18 races are:
AL-02: Public Opinion Strategies puts Martha Roby ahead by 2.For the numbers in all 39 districts, go here.
AZ-01: The Hill puts Paul Gosar ahead by 7.
CO-04: The Hill puts Cory Gardner ahead by 3.
FL-02: A National Research poll puts Steve Southerland ahead by 16.
FL-08: A Sunshine State News Poll had Daniel Webster ahead by 7 over Lunacratic Rep. Alan Grayson.
IL-11: The Hill puts Adam Kinzinger ahead by 18; a poll released by Democrat Debbie Halvorson puts him up by only 5.
MI-01: The Hill puts Dan Benishek ahead by 3.
ND-AL: Rasmussen had Rick Berg ahead by 3
NM-02: The Hill puts Steve Pearce ahead by 4.
NY-25: A McLaughlin & Associates poll puts Ann Marie Buerkle ahead by 1.
OH-15: The Hill puts Steve Stivers ahead by 9.
OH-16: The Hill puts Jim Renacci ahead by 3.
PA-03: Mercyhurst College puts Mike Kelly ahead by 7; The Hill puts him ahead by 13.
PA-10: The Times Leader puts Tom Marino ahead by 6.
TX-17: An OnMessage, Inc. poll for Bill Flores shows him ahead by 19; a poll for Democrat Chet Edwards shows Flores ahead by 4.
TX-27: An OnMessage Inc. poll for Blake Farenthold puts him up by 8.
VA-5: Survey USA puts Robert Hurt up by 11; The Hill puts him ahead by 1.
WI-7: The Hill puts Sean Duffy up by 9.
- JP
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