Sarah Palin: Sprint to the Finish with More Good Candidates

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Via Facebook, Gov. Palin has made some more endorsements:

Sprint to the Finish with More Good Candidates

With just eight days left before Election Day, it’s time to sprint through the finish line. Here are more commonsense conservative candidates who are determined to get our country back on track.


Dick Muri for Washington’s 9th Congressional District

I met Dick Muri recently and am proud to endorse his campaign for Congress. Dick is a proven leader. He’s a devoted member of his community and a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who first earned his navigator wings in 1976. Dick will be an fresh, independent voice in Congress, unlike his opponent who votes with Speaker Pelosi and other Democrat leaders over 96% of the time. Please join me in supporting Dick Muri by visiting his website at www.dickmuri.com and following him on Facebook and Twitter.


Rob Steele for Michigan's 15th Congressional District

Dr. Rob Steele is challenging the longest-serving member of the House, and he needs your help. Dr. Steele is right on the issues – he’s committed to reduced spending, lower taxes, and commonsense Constitutional principles; and he’s right for Michigan – an NRA-member and avid sportsman, father, and community leader. After 55 years, it’s time for new leadership for Michigan. Please visit Dr. Steele’s website at www.robsteeleforcongress.com and follow him on Facebook and Twitter.


Ilario Pantano for North Carolina’s 7th Congressional District

Ilario Pantano is another dedicated patriot running for Congress this year. Ilario first swore an oath to defend the Constitution as a 17-year-old Marine. Today, he needs your help to bring common sense back to Washington. The Republicans have carried this congressional district in the last three presidential elections (including ’08), but the current representative votes with Pelosi and the Democrats 90% of the time. We can win this seat and send a decorated Marine to Congress who will be a strong voice for veterans and active-duty military. Please visit Ilario Pantano’s website at www.pantanoforcongress.net and follow him on Facebook and Twitter.


Chuck Wilkerson for California’s 30th Congressional District

I’m proud to endorse another Marine, Chuck Wilkerson in California. Chuck is making his first run for public office, and he’s doing it for all the right reasons. He’ll fight to keep taxes low and control spending, and he’ll be another strong voice for veterans. His opponent is the 35-year incumbent and cap-and-tax crusader Henry Waxman. Please visit Chuck Wilkerson’s website at www.chuckwilkerson4congress.com and follow him on Facebook and Twitter.


November 2nd is just around the corner. Let’s get behind these good candidates.

- Sarah Palin

More House Numbers

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At The Campaign Spot, NRO's Jim Geraghty has been reviewing the polls of House races released since September 23, where 39 Democrats, mostly incumbents, are trailing their GOP challengers. Geraghty did not count those races where the GOP challenger is only a few points down or within the margin of error, and polls have been conducted in some districts. Coincidentally, 39 seats are exactly the number the GOP needs to win to take control of the House.

Of the 39, 18 are in districts where Gov. Palin has made endorsements. Those 18 races are:

AL-02: Public Opinion Strategies puts Martha Roby ahead by 2.

AZ-01: The Hill puts Paul Gosar ahead by 7.

CO-04: The Hill puts Cory Gardner ahead by 3.

FL-02: A National Research poll puts Steve Southerland ahead by 16.

FL-08: A Sunshine State News Poll had Daniel Webster ahead by 7 over Lunacratic Rep. Alan Grayson.

IL-11: The Hill puts Adam Kinzinger ahead by 18; a poll released by Democrat Debbie Halvorson puts him up by only 5.

MI-01: The Hill puts Dan Benishek ahead by 3.

ND-AL: Rasmussen had Rick Berg ahead by 3

NM-02: The Hill puts Steve Pearce ahead by 4.

NY-25: A McLaughlin & Associates poll puts Ann Marie Buerkle ahead by 1.

OH-15: The Hill puts Steve Stivers ahead by 9.

OH-16: The Hill puts Jim Renacci ahead by 3.

PA-03: Mercyhurst College puts Mike Kelly ahead by 7; The Hill puts him ahead by 13.

PA-10: The Times Leader puts Tom Marino ahead by 6.

TX-17: An OnMessage, Inc. poll for Bill Flores shows him ahead by 19; a poll for Democrat Chet Edwards shows Flores ahead by 4.

TX-27: An OnMessage Inc. poll for Blake Farenthold puts him up by 8.

VA-5: Survey USA puts Robert Hurt up by 11; The Hill puts him ahead by 1.

WI-7: The Hill puts Sean Duffy up by 9.

For the numbers in all 39 districts, go here.

- JP

Sabato's Crystal Ball sees more House changes

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For the first time this year, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball is moving Democratic-held seats into the Likely Republican category. In seven open seat races, the Democrats are withdrawing resources to concentrate on other districts where they believe they have a better chance of winning. As a result, Sabato has moved those races from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. The seven include four districts in which Gov. Palin has endorsed the GOP candidate: AR-2, IN-8, KS-3, and TN-6.

Sabato is also moving two more seats from Toss-Up to Leans Republican status. One of the two is in a district where Gov. Palin made an early endorsement:

The open seat contest in WI-7, where Democrat David Obey had served for over 40 years before announcing his retirement, also seems like an increasingly likely prospect for a GOP takeover. A recent nonpartisan poll from The Hill newspaper had former Real World cast member and current Republican nominee Sean Duffy leading Democratic legislator Julie Lassa by a 44%-35% margin with voters disapproving of Obama by roughly the same margin, despite the district’s usual Democratic tilt in presidential election years. Lassa’s own polling had earlier shown her trailing only slightly, while NRCC polling had suggested a double-digit lead. However large the lead, all sides now seem to acknowledge it belongs to the GOP.

The Crystal Ball's list Toss-Up races is getting longer, as nine races featuring Democratic incumbents have been moved from Leans Democratic to Toss-Up. Gov. Palin has endorsed in four of those races:

* AZ-8 is a race that Democrats insist is salvageable, as incumbent Gabrielle Giffords has received some support from conservative sources and faces a political newcomer with Tea Party ties in Jesse Kelly. Kelly’s huge fundraising haul and energized supporters, however, show that he is not to be taken lightly. This will be a closely contested race on slightly Republican turf, and given Gifford’s slim wins in heavily Democratic years, this may be her toughest challenge yet.

[...]

* The CO-3 race demonstrates a trend we are seeing across the country as a rematch of a recent race may now go the GOP’s way given the different dynamics of this year. In 2006, Democrat John Salazar easily defeated Republican Scott Tipton, winning 61% of the vote. Now Tipton has the backing of the Tea Party—which did not even exist during his round one defeat—and an endorsement from Sarah Palin—who was still campaigning for the Alaska governorship at the time. In this very different landscape, Salazar is unlikely to repeat his large margin of victory and may end up with no victory at all.

* The PA-10 contest remains deadlocked even as GOP nominee Tom Marino is facing questions over his questionable ties and subsequent resignation as a U.S. Attorney. As the press explores the record, the DCCC is already running ads targeting Marino while the NRCC tries to focus attention on Democratic Rep. Chris Carney and his stimulus and bank bailout votes he cast alongside Nancy Pelosi. Voters will have to decide for themselves whose ties are more objectionable.

* The Republican-leaning district of TX-23 saw a 17% swing towards Democrats between the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. With the rare mid-decade redistricting in Texas and a big boost in turnout among Democrats in 2008, the true nature of the district is far from clear. Republicans, however, feel like they will have a leg up this year with very different turnout and a mood swing from voters. Republican nominee Quico Canseco has released two internal polls showing him with the lead, but that is the only polling available so far. Democratic Rep. Ciro Rodriguez has already been booted from Congress once—from the 28th District following a heated post-redistricting race—and there are no assurances that he will not suffer the same fate again.

Finally, Sabato's analysts add four new Democratic-held seats to their competitive races chart, moving them from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic. Among the four is one district where Gov. Palin has made an endorsement:

* Raul Grijalva in AZ-7 is the trendiest dark horse GOP pick-up opportunity this week. Grijalva is a liberal Democrat, chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, who represents a district that went 57% for both Obama and Kerry during their respective presidential runs. How is he endangered? One word: boycott. Following the Arizona legislature’s adoption of a controversial immigration measure in April, Grijalva signed onto the call for a national boycott of Arizona. It was a popular move among liberals, but not among Arizonans, hampered as all states have been by the tough economic times. His Republican opponent, Ruth McClung, has garnered a Sarah Palin endorsement, sure to bring national attention but also a degree of skepticism from the district’s less conservative voters. If Democrats lose here, it will be a truly needless fumble.

Sabato now projects that the GOP will pick up 47 seats in the U.S. House. Things are going from bad to worse for the Dems.

- JP

Patriot PAC launches Operation Black Storm

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From Booker Rising, we learn that Patriot PAC has initiated Operation Black Storm, an effort to promote Black conservative Congressional candidates:

The candidates endorsed? "Star Parker - CA-37, Ryan Frazier - CO-7, Allen West - FL-22, Isaac Hayes - IL-2, Marvin Scott - IN-7, Robert Broadus - MD-4, Charles Lollar - MD-5, Bill Marcy - MS-2, Michael Faulkner - NY-15, Bill Randall - NC-13, Tim Scott - SC-3, Charlotte Bergman - TN-9, Stephen Broden - TX-9, Chuck Smith - VA-3, and Vince Danet - US Virgin Islands are Operation Black Storm candidates, several of whom have received endorsements from conservative grassroots favorites Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Alan Keyes."

Of those 15 conservative candidates of color, Gov. Palin has endorsed Parker, West, Lollar, Marcy, Scott and Broden.

- JP