Sunday, October 31, 2010

Miller up by 7 in new poll; Murkowski throws GOP under the bus (or not)

Public Policy Polling isn't the most reliable of pollsters, but they're definitely a step or two up from the local polling outfits in Anchorage that we've been hearing from lately. PPP's latest survey taken in Alaska has Joe Miller at 37 percent, with what's-her-name and the Democrat tied at 30 percent:
It appears that Murkowski will lose this race. There are 2 main reasons for that. The first is that she retained little goodwill from Republicans after deciding to make an independent bid. Only 27% of GOP voters are planning to vote for her on Tuesday, down from 31% from a PPP poll earlier in October. The second reason Murkowski's headed for a loss is that she failed to dominate with independents. She is slightly ahead with them, getting 34% to 32% for McAdams and 31% for Miller. But they're not providing her with a strong base of support the way Democrats are for McAdams and Republicans for Miller.

In a cycle that has seen a lot of strange races, this one may well be the strangest. It would be premature to write off anyone at this point but Miller does look to be the favorite headed into the final stretch.
A PDF document of the poll's internals is here.

Also, remember how just nine days ago Sen. Meghan McCain Lisa Murkowski said that if elected, she would caucus with the GOP?
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) confirmed Friday that she will caucus with the Republicans should she win her write-in bid for a second full term on Nov. 2.

“That’s something that Sen. Murkowski has not made secret. Sen. Murkowski has been a Republican her entire life,” her campaign spokesman Steve Wackowski said, confirming a story published earlier by the Associated Press. “There was never intention for her not to be a Republican.”
But now, it seems, Lisa's Republicanism may have reached it's expiration date, according to this tweet from CNN's Dana Bash:
"Woah. Lisa murkowski just made really clear to our drew griffin in alaska republicans can't count on her to be w them."
Not that we didn't expect this, it's just that we didn't expect it before the election.

Update: What follows flip? Why, flop, of course. Who's running her campaign, Mitt Romney?

- JP

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