Murkowski making small gains in ballot count, but it may not be enough to win

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Pat Forgey reports at the Juneau Empire that in the Tuesday count of almost 6,100 absentee ballots in batches, Sen. Lisa Murkowski has cut into Joe Miller’s lead, as his 1,668 margin has been cut to 1,294. Murkowski has been awarded 53.1 percent of the new votes, compared to Miller’s 46.9 percent. But she still may not garner enough votes to win the GOP primary:

At that rate, there may not be enough outstanding ballots to carry Murkowski to victory, even if the trend holds. It is not clear what ballots have yet to be counted, but in one batch counted Tuesday, Murkowski won 59.5 percent. Similar batches could close the gap substantially, if they exist. Of course, a run of Miller votes in a similar grouping could tip the scales further towards his nomination.

Also yet to be counted are about 9,000 questioned ballots. Those are typically from voters casting ballots at the wrong polling place, and there has been little speculation whether those ballots will differ from the statewide totals in any meaningful way.

Stacy McCain, live blogging from Anchorage, says most of the ballots counted today were from Anchorage, a Murkowski stronghold, and the early votes and questioned ballots from the Wasilla-Palmer area. The absentee ballots from the Mat-Su Valley, considered to be a Miller bastion, will not be counted until Wednesday:

So today’s totals, with Lisa Murkowski gaining slightly, do not reflect the final outcome in those districts...

“We’re thinking it will be a good day at the end of the day,” Joe Miller campaign spokesman Randy DeSoto says in reaction to preliminary absentee ballot count from Anchorage.

- JP