Grown-ups? What grown-ups? (Updated: Lawyers for Lisa)

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Stacy McCain has pronounced Sen. Lisa Murkowski electorally dead, at least for the current cycle. Stacy's case for her political demise:

Is there any plausible reason to believe absentee voters would be so much more pro-Murkowski than the Election Day voters who went for Miller by 51%?

Answer: No.

The absentee-ballot scenario being demonstrably implausible, we then turn our attention to the prospect of Murkowski dragging out the process in a futile recount effort. Would responsible Republican officials — the grown-ups in the party — countenance such a spoilsport tantrum by the loser of a primary?

Answer: No.

OK, so we proceed to Final Jeopardy: Would Murkowski, who was bequeathed her Senate seat through appointment by her father, former Gov. Frank Murkowski, be a viable third-party candidate?

Answer: No.

All possibilities for the viable continuance of Murkowski’s candidacy are far-fetched conjecture.

We see two potential problems with The Other McCain's arguments. First, he says the "grown-ups in the party" would never go along with a Murkowski demand for a recount. But we're not convinced that the Alaska GOP is under the control of responsible adults. Allow us to introduce People's Exhibits A and B, your honor. Randy Ruedrich, who has his own axes to grind for both Sarah Palin and Joe Miller, is still the chairman of the state Republican Party, and the Murkowski family still has a lot of friends in low, but powerful, places up there.

And though Lisa Murkowski may not be a viable third-party candidate, that won't necessarily stop her from channeling Dede Scozzafava with a cruel twist in the general election just to get some payback. The Murkowskis still seethe over Sarah Palin's defeat of Papa Frank in 2006, and Lisa mas made no secret of her deep-seated bitterness toward Sarahcuda in recent days. The Murkowski hatred of her bleeds over onto every Palin political ally in the 49th State. There are four "third-parties" registered in Alaska which could be potential vehicles for the state's Senior Senator to get her name on the general election ballot and play the spoiler:

Alaskan Independence Party
Alaska Green Party
Alaska Libertarian Party
Veterans Party of Alaska

Murkowski is likely too much of a RINO for the AIP and not leftist enough to please the Greens, but even the Veterans Party is a possibility. She has a strong voting record on military and veterans issues. Though she not in sync with the party's platform, Hot Air's Allahpundit seems taken by the notion that Murkowski might go the LP route, and he's not the only one talking about the idea.

If Murkowski loses the primary, there is a possibility that she might able to run on the Libertarian ticket in the November general election. But that would require the Libertarian Senate candidate, David Haase, to agree to step aside, and for the Alaska Libertarian Party to agree to put Murkowski on the ballot.

Alaska Libertarian Party chairman Scott Kohlaas said he was open to the idea and that party leaders were discussing it. "There's a chance," Kohlhaas said on Wednesday.

Haase didn't rule out the idea, saying he'd certainly listen if Murkowski wanted to step into his place.

The Senator has only said that it's too soon to talk about a third-party run, which means that she hasn't ruled it out. Lisa Murkowski remains defiant. She could surprise us and bow out with the pretense of doing so gracefully, but so far she has shown no signs that this would be her course of action.

Updates...

Sen. Murkowski has asked the NRSC for help, and it has dispatched a lawyer to Alaska "to help provide guidance" to the stubborn incumbent. We know the GOP's establishment types tend to stick together, but this is mind-numbingly stupid on the NRSC's part. This is exactly the sort of contested primary situation Sen. Cornyn swore that the NRSC would stay out of. What, the Murkowskis can't afford their own lawyer? Sad to hear they've fallen on such hard times. It must be Bush's fault. Also, Forget that stuff about Lisa-Lisa bowing out, gracefully or otherwise.

Allahpundit discovers that the LP is the only third-party option for Murkowski.

But Stacy McCain reveals that the LP candidate who would have to step aside to allow Murkowski to run on his party's ticket is a "huge Sarah Palin fan."

Rush Limbaugh's comments from Thursday's show:

"The ruling class in the Murkowski vote, they're going to find some missing ballots. I don't care whether it's Republicans or Democrats, they're going to find 'em. There are already rumors of found ballots. This is before they get to the absentees. I'm telling you the truth, Murkowski is refusing to go away quietly. She's allowing her campaign to float the idea of a third-party bid or a write-in candidacy if she ends up losing this. There you go. A third-party bid is gonna give that seat to a Democrat, currently held by a Republican. There you go. You might say, 'Well, doesn't she care about the party?' What do you think? She first and foremost cares about herself. Is she going to have an election here where there's 1600 votes she might lose by? Found ballots, election fraud, what else is she gonna do? You can't build a bridge to nowhere if you're not in the Senate. Not that she had anything to do with it. I'm just speaking euphemistically. So, yeah, she's toying with the idea of a third-party. And if she goes third party where do you think the Republican Party will go, with her or with the Tea Party candidate? You think the GOP will go with the Tea Party? In Alaska, you think the Tea Party candidate would have the support of the Republican Party? We'll see. I don't know. The fact that I even have to ask the question is interesting to me."

Erick Erickson weighed in Friday morning:

"I have confirmed through multiple sources that Lisa Murkowski has already approached the Alaska Libertarian Party. In exchange for putting her on the Libertarian ticket in November, Murkowski will hand the Libertarians a sizable chunk of her +$1 million war chest. The Libertarian Party Chairman, Scot Kohlhaas, is denying direct talks with Murkowski, and says it probably won’t happen, but I can confirm conversations are still happening regarding this."

Ace's take:

"Lisa Murkowski is attempting to run as a representative of a different party. She is not then a Republican. Helping her is thus contrary to the NRSC's mission. She can either attempt to capture the Republican Party's nomination through recounts and such, and swear in a written document to not pursue another party's nomination, or she can stop using the services and influence of the NRSC. She cannot do both."

The plot is now officially thick as a brick...

- JP