When Polls Collide

Andrew Malcolm, the dean of political bloggers, at Top of the Ticket:

Obama's new Gallup Poll job approval number is 47%. Last month it was 53%.

Regular Ticket readers will recall how in this space in late November we pointed out that Obama's closely watched job approval slide was coinciding with Palin's little-noticed rise in favorability. And it appeared they might cross somewhere in the 40s.

Well, ex-Sen. Obama, meet ex-Gov. Palin.

The new CNN/Opinion Research Poll shows Palin now at 46% favorable, just one point below her fellow basketball fan.

[...]

Palin critics -- and, by golly, there still are some, believe it or not -- say that she's a polarizing political figure.

And they're dead-on correct: 46% like her (including eight of 10 Republicans), 46% don't (including seven of 10 Democrats) and only 8% are undecided (no doubt including many who've been living underground since John McCain unveiled his VP GOP running mate in Dayton, Ohio, some 15 months ago).

But here's the fascinating, little-noticed catch:

The very same polarization now holds true for Obama, the fresh fellow from the old Chicago Democratic machine who was supposed to bring hope and change to a nation tired of divisive politics and the harsh partisan tone of Washington.

Fully 83% of Democrats approve of him, but only 14% of Republicans do.

Among independents, who provided the crucial winning boost for the Democratic ticket in November 2008, Obama's support has melted to 42% today, in large part over immense spending and deficit concerns.

In a poll conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp. in mid-November, Sarah Palin's favorable rating among independent voters, was at 49 percent, seven points higher than the president's numbers are now with the same demographic. Palin was even viewed more favorably by Democrats (20 percent) than Obama is by Republicans (14 percent). 

Numbers from surveys conducted by different polling firms aren't directly comparable, but still, the deterioration in how Obama is viewed by independents at the same time Sarah Palin's appeal to these critical voters is on the rise must have The One's handlers afraid... very afraid.

While the Obama team at The Neverending Campaign^TM burn the late night oil enviro-friendly neon lights at the White House, you can read Andrew's full post here.

- JP