Varadarajan: 'The Palin Primaries are now behind us. Make way for the Palin Midterms.'

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The Palin Primaries are behind us, and the GOP establishment, as is its habit, is itching to set sail for the center to try to attract more votes. But Hoover Institution fellow Tunku Varadarajan advises in a Daily Beast op-ed that the GOP should continue to chart a course to starboard:

These have been the Palin Primaries, a fact rammed home deliciously by Alaska’s Republican voters in their “refudiation,” as of this writing, of Lisa Murkowski. What a potent, irrepressible woman Palin is...

The question facing the Republicans is how best to deploy Palin’s energy for November—in effect, how best to channel the vim of the Tea Party. Midterm elections, as a rule, are base-versus-base battles: Both parties will spare no quarter or trick to get their faithful to turn out. For this task, Palin is as close to an indispensable figure as the Republicans have.

[...]

Palin and the Tea Party now command a right to dictate terms, and having been sidelined once already (in 2008, with disastrous consequences for the party), she is unlikely to be so easily governed again. After all, she secured for John McCain his Senate primary in Arizona, by endorsing him over the more Tea Party-friendly J.D. Hayworth. After that, and after Alaska in particular, she has acquired a quite daunting aura.

[...]

But what about “independents” — won’t Palin make the GOP much less attractive to them? I put the question to John Zogby, the pollster, who told me: “It is important to be reminded just who the ‘independents’ are. Almost half of them describe themselves as politically moderate and lean heavily toward President Obama and the Democrats.” So this group, it would seem, would spurn the GOP in November, with or without a Palin thrust.

“Of the remaining 52 percent,” Zogby continued, “two in three describe themselves as politically ‘conservative’ but weary of Republicans on issues like spending, civil liberties, and the war in Iraq during the Bush and Republican congressional years. So a conservative message can win their support except they don’t trust the Republicans.”

That would, of course, be the Republican Establishment; and here, precisely, is where Palin can make a difference: I am prepared to wager that many of these “conservative independents” have some inclination toward the Tea Party and its small-government message. So staying “on message” — especially on the need for fiscal conservatism — is more likely to win their vote than a Republican lurch to the center. And since any such lurch will have the inevitable effect of driving the base to distraction, I see the GOP embracing a version of the Palin-Tea Party message.

Read the full Varadarajan opinion piece here.

- JP

Study: Tea Partiers Prefer Palin for President

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The Daily Caller's Alex Pappas reports that a new survey of the Tea Party movement released today reveals that Sarah Palin is the overwhelming choice of conservative grassroots activists for president in 2012:

Among the “229 Tea Party supporters” surveyed by the Sam Adams Alliance, Palin brought in 23 percent when up against 19 other candidates, according to the report. It is the first of three studies commissioned by the free-market non-profit group to analyze Tea Party activists before November’s midterm elections.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney followed with 9.2 percent, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie took in 8.7 percent and Newt Gingrich garnered 7.7 percent of Tea Party activists’ support.

Although activists tend to support GOP candidates for president, the report found that some — who largely identified as Republicans before they joined up as Tea Partiers — have dropped their party affiliation with the GOP as they became more involved in the movement.

Among new activists polled, 74 percent originally identified themselves as Republican, with 20 percent saying they are independents. But since claiming to join the movement, there’s been a near 30-point drop in affiliation among Tea Partiers with the Republican Party, according to the group, with many activists switching to independent, Tea Party or Libertarian party labels.

Read the full Daily Caller article here.

- JP

When Polls Collide

Andrew Malcolm, the dean of political bloggers, at Top of the Ticket:

Obama's new Gallup Poll job approval number is 47%. Last month it was 53%.

Regular Ticket readers will recall how in this space in late November we pointed out that Obama's closely watched job approval slide was coinciding with Palin's little-noticed rise in favorability. And it appeared they might cross somewhere in the 40s.

Well, ex-Sen. Obama, meet ex-Gov. Palin.

The new CNN/Opinion Research Poll shows Palin now at 46% favorable, just one point below her fellow basketball fan.

[...]

Palin critics -- and, by golly, there still are some, believe it or not -- say that she's a polarizing political figure.

And they're dead-on correct: 46% like her (including eight of 10 Republicans), 46% don't (including seven of 10 Democrats) and only 8% are undecided (no doubt including many who've been living underground since John McCain unveiled his VP GOP running mate in Dayton, Ohio, some 15 months ago).

But here's the fascinating, little-noticed catch:

The very same polarization now holds true for Obama, the fresh fellow from the old Chicago Democratic machine who was supposed to bring hope and change to a nation tired of divisive politics and the harsh partisan tone of Washington.

Fully 83% of Democrats approve of him, but only 14% of Republicans do.

Among independents, who provided the crucial winning boost for the Democratic ticket in November 2008, Obama's support has melted to 42% today, in large part over immense spending and deficit concerns.

In a poll conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp. in mid-November, Sarah Palin's favorable rating among independent voters, was at 49 percent, seven points higher than the president's numbers are now with the same demographic. Palin was even viewed more favorably by Democrats (20 percent) than Obama is by Republicans (14 percent). 

Numbers from surveys conducted by different polling firms aren't directly comparable, but still, the deterioration in how Obama is viewed by independents at the same time Sarah Palin's appeal to these critical voters is on the rise must have The One's handlers afraid... very afraid.

While the Obama team at The Neverending Campaign^TM burn the late night oil enviro-friendly neon lights at the White House, you can read Andrew's full post here.

- JP

Bill O'Reilly: Hammering Sarah

Bill O'Reilly has written a very good op-ed for Townhall.com on the media's war against Sarah Palin. Here are few excerpts:

It is worth noting that the left has not been able to knock Palin out despite trying very hard. A study by the Culture and Media Institute looked at a two-week period during last year's presidential campaign. During that time, the nightly network newscasts ran 18 negative stories about candidate Palin for every positive story.

[...]

Feminist Naomi Wolf and crazy-left Washington Post columnist Eugene Robinson put forth the latest propaganda. Independently, they dubbed Palin the new Evita. What are the odds of Wolf and Robinson, who operate worlds apart, both referencing Argentine Eva Peron at pretty much the same time? Coincidence? Sure.

[...]

My theory is that liberal America fears Palin. Even though a CBS News poll has her approval rating at just 23 percent, a whopping 37 percent of respondents say they are still undecided about the former governor. That means millions of Americans are potential converts to her populist cause. Bad news for the left if the country turns against the Obama administration.

It's great to see O'Reilly develop a "theory" which many of us who support The Arctic Fox have recognized as fact for well over a year. But let's not be too hard on BOR. He has a large audience in the millions with many independents among them. If he can persuade these independents to take a second look at the 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate, that's a good thing -- a very good thing.

- JP

Continetti: Palin can make a comeback

Matthew Continetti, author of the just-released The Persecution of Sarah Palin, opines in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that former Governor Sarah Palin can make a political comeback if she follows the example of Ronald Reagan and returns to her 2006 playbook:

In Alaska, Ms. Palin didn't run as a culture warrior. She focused on issues with overwhelming public support: ethics reform, a revised oil tax, and more competition and transparency in the effort to build a natural gas pipeline. She took the conservative vote for granted and focused on winning independents and even some Democrats.

The 2006 Palin model looks a lot like the approach that Virginia's next governor, Republican Bob McDonnell, used to win his election last week. It means applying conservative principles to problems like the economy, health care, and out-of-control federal spending. It means addressing voter concern that big government and big business are in cahoots, heaping expensive burdens on small businesses and individual entrepreneurs.

During her book tour, Ms. Palin is sure to mention that the Obama administration's opposition to offshore drilling and domestic nuclear power, and its support for an onerous cap-and-trade scheme, will raise energy prices across the board. But she also might spend less time discussing campaign intrigue and Alaska trivia, and more time outlining how to spur job creation through tax reform.

She might mention, too, that the Democrats' health-care plan would hike taxes, raise the cost of doing business, and lead to rationing down the line. She might point out that, on top of health care, the stimulus and bailouts, President Obama's 2010 budget will further bury the United States in debt. Every time the media try to shift the conversation to personal gossip or past mistakes, Ms. Palin should pull it right back to how the Obama agenda will hurt the middle class.

As Continetti points out, the 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate's numbers aren't that great among independents, but but turning them around is doable.  Independents are turning away from Obama and the overreaching Democrats in droves.  Sarah Palin needs to send these voters a reassuring message of common sense Reagan conservatism.  They will respond positively.

Continetti appeared on Fox News thursday night on Hannity:



- JP

Independents Abandoning The Dems: A Case Study

We've commented often on the "boomerang" effect of how the radical Leftists are scaring independents away from the Democrats in droves. The hatred and venom the Left never ceases to display for Sarah Palin and any others it perceives as threats to their false gods, including Obama The Almighty, has gone beyond the point of diminishing returns. Even some liberals are being turned off by the radical leftist attacks, as Senneth chronicles in this post on The New Agenda blog:

I have been one of those loyal Democrats most of my life, a left wing liberal, who supported Hillary’s bid for the presidency with joy and fervor. I was dismayed and furious over the treatment Hillary received at the hands of the mainstream media, the Obama campaign, the Democratic National Committee, progressive talk radio, and some of the more prominent Democrats. I actually couldn’t believe what I was seeing. Cognitive dissonance displayed and experienced.

Soon the attacks moved to Governor Palin and her family, not her political positions or ideology, mind you, but her children, her family. It was truly an epiphany for me and lots of other people who, like me, became PUMAs and then Independents, leaving the Democratic Party in droves.

The most troubling of all these attacks for me, at any rate, were those from women – feminists – whom I’d respected for years. Women who had been leaders in the women’s movement and whose voices carried weight. I’ve been a women’s rights activist for years, a leader in my local community and state and the comments and attacks coming from these women leaders were not just troubling, they caused me to rethink my deeply- held beliefs and raised some questions for me as well.

[...]

This brings me to the point of this whole opinion piece: If we, as women, conspire and are complicit in helping other woman fail through attacks, ridicule, and judgmental behavior, how will we – all of us who are women – ever get ahead?

Read this thoughtful op-ed in full here.

Meanwhile, keep pouring on the vitriol against Sarah Palin, leftists. The more you attack this woman, the more thoughtful independents are turning their backs on you in disgust.

- JP

Why independents are tuning out the Left

Independents and some blue-collar moderates are running away from the Democrat Party and the radical Leftists who control it in droves. What is turning them off? Liberals, instead of engaging in substantive debate or constructive criticism, can only insult conservatives, and that's not what independents want to hear.

Here's an example:

I really enjoy a good discussion no matter what the subject and it’s always fun to play devil’s advocate should the opportunity arise. I suppose this is why I listen to people like Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh and others on the extreme Right. I just wish there were folks like that on the Left which is why I had high hopes for Joy Behar on CNN. When I switched to Behar’s show the topic under discussion was Sarah Palin, which was no big surprise, she seems to be a favorite for discussions on the Left. I was so disappointed when the conversation was exactly what I have come to expect from the Left, just a bunch of insults. I really wish they would twist facts and statistics like their counterparts on the Right to make things more interesting. I heard comments like, “Sarah Palin is just promoting her book which is strange since she has never read a book”, and, “… George Bush who never read a book…”, which is just what I have come to expect from the Left. I was never a fan of George Bush and I’m always happy to debate his presidency and policies. From what I understand of the past President he was actually very well read, perhaps not the greatest speaker, but well read nonetheless which makes these kind of comments just insults and lies. Come on Joy, you can do better, I’m sure of it. Joy Behar really should try and learn more [than] Hannity and Limbaugh, if she did, people like me might actually watch her show once in a while.

While we're not sure where that blogger stands on the political spectrum, we can extrapolate that he or she is not a conservative, since the author considers a rather mainstream conservative such as Hannity (who is a big fan of moderate Rudy Giuliani) to be on the "extreme right." We can therefore reasonably assume that he or she is a moderate or an intellectually honest liberal.

What is telling here is that the Alinskyite tactic of ridicule is a big turn-off for the writer. Just how many others share this person's thinking remains to be seen, but we believe the number is growing rapidly. People are interested in hearing why one side believes its solutions to the problems that they face in this country will work better than what the opposition proposes, not childish insults.

Here is a golden opportunity for Sarah Palin to gain ground with independents and blue-collar moderate Democrats. As the Left continues to insult her -- and you know that they will because they didn't learn this lesson in Ronald Reagan's day -- she will ride above the smears and present an optimistic vision for America which can be realized through the application of common-sense conservative principles.

Please, leftists, don't change a thing that you're doing. You are turning out to be our best recruiters. Thank you for your contribution to our cause.

Update: Richard Cohen proves our point with his insults and lack of substance.

- JP

Leftist radicals are driving voters toward Sarah Palin

Aaron Goldstein has posted some thoughts on the "Splitsville" smears at the Intellectual Conservative Blog that we believe are worth sharing:

If one genuinely disagrees with Palin's point of view or policies then fine. No one is under any obligation to cast a ballot for her should she seek public office again. But why bring her spouse and children into it? Because the more this is done towards Sarah Palin the more this will solidify her existing support.

Such behavior will also draw people to her who might not otherwise agree with everything she says or does. These people will be drawn to her side because they a) are not satisfied with the progress of the Obama Administration b) want something more from Obama supporters than rumor, innuendo and unfair personal attacks and c) like just enough of what Palin has to say to give her a chance.

This final reason is why Sarah Palin is a force with whom to be reckoned.

According to a Pew Research poll released June 24, Sarah Palin's favorability ratings have increased by 6 points among independents and 7 points with Democrats since November. She is steadily improving her standing with the two demographic groups that were most problematic for her in the 2008 election.

We believe that Goldstein's point is well taken. Voters among these two groups who previously opposed Palin based on first impressions are growing weary of the vicious attacks on her character and her family, and many of them are giving her a second look. The politics of personal destruction has a very short half-life. We could never convince the more radical elements of the Left that they are driving voters toward Palin, but then why should we even try?

- JP

Sarah Palin still the choice of GOP moderates

Via Tom Jensen at the PPP blog:

For the second month in a row we found Sarah Palin as the most popular of the leading 2012 GOP hopefuls among moderate Republicans. 64% have a positive opinion of her compared to 57% for Newt Gingrich, 53% for Mike Huckabee, and 45% for Mitt Romney.

Gov. Palin has arguably been the choice of conservative Republicans since the 2008 election in early November. Now she is winning over the GOP's more moderate voters. And according to a Pew Research poll released June 24, her favorability ratings have increased by 6 points among independents and 7 points with Democrats.

There's no question that Sarah Palin is broadening her appeal.

- JP

MA GOP Committewoman: Don't count Palin out

Linda Rapoza, a Republican state committeewoman in Massachusetts, says in an op-ed in the New Bedford Standard-Times not to count out Sarah Palin:

As a proud conservative woman who has no problem standing up for what she believes, even if it means being hounded by liberals and isolated by her own party, she's managed to succeed beyond the wildest dreams of most women in politics. Curiously, she's received no accolades for her achievements as governor, and certainly no respect for her efforts as a wife and mother of five.

[...]

Unapologetically pro-life, Palin's been chastised for giving birth to a handicapped child, and then accused of not having given birth to him at all! Despite her efforts to inform an aggressive media that she was fair game, but her children were not, cowardly clap-trappers chose the easier targets: the children. When a well-rehearsed "joke" about statutory rape starring her daughter went bad, all the supporters of hate-crime legislation rallied to the defense of the joker and criticized her for taking offense. You don't experience that level of criticism because you're ineffective.

Rapoza points to two trends that seem to be occuring simultaneously:

For the first time in decades, more people identify themselves as pro-life than pro-choice. Coincidently, a recent Gallup Poll revealed that by a 2-to-1 margin, more people claim to be "conservative" than "liberal" in their political views.

Gov. Palin's own poll numbers have show a recent modest gain in approval with independents and Democrats. Timing is everything. Sarah Palin is breaking the chains that bind her to Alaska, and she will be seeing a lot more of the lower 48 in the coming months. If she can manage to forge a coalition of conservatives and independents as she raises money and campaigns for conservative candidates, those doors she's fond of talking about will be opening for her.

- JP

Sarahcuda sends a message to the GOP establishment

Gov. Sarah Palin told the Washington Times that after she resigns from office, she intends to use her time campaigning for conservatives of all stripes:

"I will go around the country on behalf of candidates who believe in the right things, regardless of their party label or affiliation. People are so tired of the partisan stuff — even my own son is not a Republican."

So what is the Republican Party's 2008 vice presidential candidate trying to accomplish here? Unlike David Frum, we're not a mind readers and can only speculate. It is doubtful that Democrats, even the Blue Dog variety, will ask her to campaign for them.

What we think she's doing is twofold:
1. She's going after off blue-collar Democrat voters
2. She's sending a not-so-subtle message to the Republican party establishment. It goes something like this:

"If you continue to favor Vichy Republicans (like Crist) at the expense of conservatives (like Rubio), you will have lost the base. Continue to ignore the grassroots at your own peril. They are already angry with you, and if you do not show them some love, you will have lost them, possibly forever."

But that's our opinion.

As for the rest of the article, it's standard drive-by media fare. Most Palin supporters will get as far as the fish wrapper's use of the phrase "the polarizing Alaskan" and stop reading right there.

The drive by media, even the supposed more "conservative" outlets such as The Washington Times and Fox News, doesn't get it, except for a few lonely voices in the midst of their wilderness - like Glenn Beck. The center-right media elite are as divorced from the grassroots as is the GOP hierarchy.

- JP

Update: Reaction from Tammy Bruce here, Dan Riehl here.