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According to a Gallup Poll conducted Dec. 11-13, Sarah Palin's favorable ratings have risen four points in the last month, while her unfavorables have declined by three points. That's a seven-point turnaround -- but Palin's numbers improved only "slightly" -- Gallup says.
In October, the former governor's unfavorables were 50 percent. They have improved to 47 percent in December. her favorables were 40 percent in October, and they have risen to a December level of 44 percent.
Gallup's findings are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 American adults -- not registered voters -- aged 18 and older. The poll has a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.
In a poll conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp. in mid-November, Sarah Palin's favorable rating overall was 47 percent, compared to 42 pewrcent who had an unfavorable view of her. That was a substantial improvement over her Opinion Dynamics numbers from July,when only 38 percent viewed her favorably, and 51% said they had an unfavorable opinion of her. Among independent voters, Sarah Palin's favorable rating was 49 percent, with only 38 percent viewing her unfavorably.
Like the Gallip Poll, Opinion Dynamics' survey was conducted by telephone, but it surveyed only registered voters, while Gallup polled adults over the age of 18. The Opinion Dynamics poll has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
- JP
Opinion Dynamics poll numbers "Among independent voters, Sarah Palin's favorable rating was 49 percent, with only 38 percent viewing her unfavorably"
ReplyDeleteIf those are the current numbers among independent voters, the worst nightmare by liberals maybe coming true. It's the independents that can swing an election one way or another. Her favorable numbers among indies stand at +11! Sarah has managed to repair the damage that the media inflicted into her from day one. By Sarah being herself, people who thought negative of her thanks to the taint of the reporting by the media now are starting to see her in a different and a more favorable light. I know Democrat strategists and pollsters are not happy with this news.
Conservative Brother - You are absolutely correct. The only numbers that matter is how Sarah does with LIKELY Independent voters.
ReplyDeleteThese ALL ADULT polls - like Gallup - are useless. In politics the only sample that counts is LIKELY VOTERS. Here are the facts:
Total Adult US population in 2008 (18 years of age or over): 230 million - out of a total population of 304 million.
Total Registered Voters in 2008: 169 million or 73.5% of the Adult population of 230 million.
Total Actual Presidential Voters in 2008 (likely voters): 131 million or only 57.0% of the Adult population of 230 million.
So, 43% of the population offering an opinion on Sarah in the Gallup poll won't even end up voting in 2012. Moreover, most of these are VERY low information people who don't follow politics, have little or no knowledge of civics, and get all of their information from entertainment TV and tabloid publications. This is why Obama does well in these broad polls but declines as the sample becomes more narrow with registered or likely voters. For Sarah - and most Republicans - the opposite is true as the narrower the sample is the better she does. So who cares about the Gallup poll!!
The Opinion Dynamics poll - I believe - was of Registered Voters but even in this sample nearly 23% will again not vote in 2012. The only polling firm currently using likely voters is Rasmussen.
But even with likely voters the only numbers to focus on are the independents. Because Democrats dislike her so much, she will always have much worse overall favorables than other candidates like Huckabee and Romney. However, strong favorables with Democrats are meaningless since they will still not vote for a Republican even if they find that person favorable. McCain had great favorables with Democrats but it didn't do him any good as few crossed over to vote for him.
Sarah's favorables with Republicans are also meaningless. The elites may dislike her, but if she gets the nomination they will still vote for her over another disasterous four years of Obama. She will get 92% of the Republican vote like every other Republican candidate got in the past. The base hated McCain but he still ended up with 92% of the Republican vote.
In this day and age there is very little cross over voting for President among registered Democrats and Republicans. Elections are now won and lost with Independents alone.
Therefore, the only numbers that matter for Sarah is how she does with LIKELY INDEPENDENT VOTERS. And more importantly, how she does with these voters in about 12 swing states. Come early 2012 I'm sure her PAC will be polling these voters extensively, and if she is doing well with them, she will run. If not, she will not run. In this regard the Opinion Dynamics Poll findings are very encouraging.
Great points Rusty. I think another reason why her favorables among independent voters is improving is due to Sarah speaking out against Obama's unfavorable policies and stances. She is positioning herself as the contrast to Obama. When Sarah mentioned the infamous words of "death panels", it resonated with people.The people who hate her thought she was dumb as a flake for saying it, but the people who exercise common sense knew that death panels and rationed care go hand and hand. What else can Palin's haters do to stop now? They've fired all the ammo they had at her, yet she is just getting stronger and more popular by the day.
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