Mark Whittington: Sarah Palin's Path to Victory in 2012

"Voters will have to decide whether they want four more years of the same"
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Mark Whittington sees a possible path to the presidency for Ssrah Palin. It starts in the GOP primaries, where the Yahoo! contributor says Gov. Palin has an excellent chance of winning the Republican nomination. she would have to position herself as "the anti-Romney candidate," which should be easy, and then she would have to knock him out, a much more difficult task, considering Romney's bags of money, established organization, and a huge cheerleading section filled with most members of the GOP establishment:

But, the conventional wisdom replies, winning the Republican nomination is worthless if one cannot beat Obama in the general election. That premise, though, is based on polls taken before the campaign even begins in earnest.

The scenario Palin is doubtless looking at is her presumed ability to get people to take a second look at her by performing well against mostly men the conventional wisdom finds more acceptable. The very act of beating Romney, Pawlenty, et al will make her stronger and thus more acceptable to the electorate.

Fast forward to August 2012, as Palin, the nominee, gives a barn burning speech to a delirious crowd at the Republican National Convention. Most forecasters predict a sluggish economy at best over a year hence. That
factor will be to the detriment of President Obama. Voters will have to decide whether they want four more years of the same or take a chance on someone new, albeit someone they have been told is a ditz.

Palin would count on delivering the knockout blow during the debates. Because of the unrelenting smear campaign against her, she will enter the debates with Obama with the lowest expectations in history. But her performance against Joe Biden in 2008 demonstrates that she can more than hold her own. If Palin goes toe to toe with Obama successfully, especially if she has a "there you go again moment," her path to victory will be open and clear.

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From your keyboard, Mark, to the providence of the Almighty.

- JP