Matt Latimer: 5 Reasons Palin Will Run

"Do Palinistas believe they have a case to make? You betcha."
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Matt Latimer, who wrote speeches for George W. Bush and Donald Rumsfeld, details 5 reasons why Gov. Palin will run, and why that would be a positive for the GOP:

Sarah Palin remains a rank-and-file favorite. Her second book is yet another hit. She has nearly two million more Facebook fans than establishment favorite Mitt Romney, two million more than even former President George W. Bush, and incidentally nearly 300 times as many as Bush's mother. Supporters have made the reform-minded unknown from the Deep North into an instant millionaire many times over—and they just might make her the GOP nominee. Do Palinistas believe they have a case to make? You betcha. Here are their five top reasons why her nomination might turn out to be a good thing for the Republican Party:

1. Goodbye Karl Rove. No place rewards failure more than Washington D.C.

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The very same people who lost the House and Senate to the Democrats in 2006, who helped President Bush stagger out of office in 2008 less popular than Nixon, and who brought the GOP to historic lows in popular approval—lows that exist to this day—are still trying to call the shots.... If it does anything, a Palin nomination would likely shake loose their grip on the party apparatus, allowing new people to emerge in 2012 and beyond. A little fresh air could be a good thing for the grand old party, even an Arctic blast from Alaska.

2. She's Earned It. Palin... inspired and energized millions of voters... Since 2008, Palin has campaigned across the country for the party, raising money and campaigning for dozens of candidates... The party has a history of rewarding many of its top candidates from the prior election; why, supporters ask, is Palin any different?

3. She's More Astute than People Think... Critics take note: This same political novice unseated a sitting Alaska governor in a crowded GOP primary and then defeated another former governor in the general election. That aint nothin'. Despite a notable lack of familiarity with issues in the 2008 campaign, by 2012 she will have had four years to study up, and is putting together a formidable policy team to do just that... The fact is that none of Palin's many critics have the money, support, and microphone that she has, all of which she has used to become a media phenomenon. She even has used critics' low expectations to her advantage. Nearly everyone expected Palin to crawl off the debate stage after her encounter with Joe Biden in 2008, yet by the end of the forum even some in the media thought she had won. Palin haters: This so-called "dummy" is underestimated at your peril.

4... Palin benefits from the yawning frustration with a GOP hierarchy that Tea Partiers and party conservatives believe has lost its principles, commitment to fiscal and personal responsibility, and sense of direction. "Robbing" their favorite of the 2012 nomination, at least without seeming to have given her a fair chance, may be something the party deeply regrets, especially if her millions of alienated, and fed up, followers stay home. Besides, Palin followers argue, would the party really be that much better off with a field of helplessly bland, middle-aged white males with the excitement of a ShamWOW! infomercial.

5... Many supporters of the Tea Party—some 71 percent of the GOP, according to polls—are not the lunatics, birthers, or racists who gain most of the media's attention. A good number are simply political novices wanting to advance ideas and make a difference. A group like that could use the Palin candidacy to learn how the political nominating process works, to better understand how to craft a coherent message that can be embraced by more people, and to become more seasoned political operatives.

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- JP