Wednesday, October 13, 2010

The DC: Palin 2012 presidential odds same as Obama's in 2006

The Daily Caller's Christopher Harrell observes the that latest betting odds for the 2012 presidential election show President Barack Obama as the favorite. But if the opening odds for the 2008 presidential election are any guide, 2012 could be the year Sarah Palin is elected president:
President Obama was given 10/1 odds of becoming the next president by numbers in early December 2006, identical odds to what Sportsbook now gives Palin for being elected the 45th President of the United States in 2012.

Two other major betting sites, and 1800-Sports, a betting information site, have Palin at 10/1 odds of becoming the next president of the United States, while Bodog has Palin at 12/1.

“Political betting like politics itself is all about momentum and once a candidate starts to gain support, bettors start to follow,” said Richard Gardner, Bodog Sportsbook Manager, in a statement to The Daily Caller. “This can be a very good indicator of opinion, people betting on politics tend to be quite shrewd rather than blindly loyal as they can be in sports.”


In the 2008 presidential election, BETUS and 1800-Sports gave President Obama 7/2 odds of being nominated by the Democratic Party, the same odds Palin is currently given to be nominated by the Republican Party in 2012, according to Sportsbook.

In December 2006, President Obama’s odds of being elected president in 2008 were behind then-Sen. Hillary Clinton, Virginia Democratic Sen. Mark R. Warner, former Vice President Al Gore, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, according to BETUS and 1800-Sports.

As it became clear that Obama was going to mount a presidential campaign, and as his support rose during the campaign, President Obama’s betting odds continually updated to reflect his increased chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Mitt Romney is, for now at least, the favorite to capture the GOP nomination, according to, but right behind him in second place is Gov. Palin. South Dakota Sen. John Thune and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty have been given odds of 7/1 and 9/1, respectively, by, says TheDC.

- JP

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