Friday, July 24, 2009

How to cook a political poll

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Cool Myspace Generators


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"Palin Favorability Rating Dips As She Nears Exit, Poll Finds"

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Sample composition:

Democrat........ 33%
Republican...... 22%
Independent..... 41%
Other.................. 4%

Washington Post-ABC News Poll, July 15 - 18, 2009

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The top 23 polling organizations ranked by accuracy:

1. Rasmussen (Tie)
1. Pew Research (Tie)
2. YouGov/Polimetrix
3. Harris Interactive
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance)
5. Diageo/Hotline (Tie)
5. ARG (Tie)
6. CNN (Tie)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (Tie)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000
8. AP/Yahoo/KN
9. Democracy Corps (D)
10. FOX
11. Economist/YouGov
12. IBD/TIPP
13. NBC/WSJ
14. ABC/Post
15. Marist College
16. CBS
17. Gallup
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby
19. CBS/Times
20. Newsweek

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- JP

6 comments:

  1. I knew there was something off about this poll. Last week's Rassmus poll had her favorability much higher yet this WaPo one has her dropping 13 pts in one week. That and it has Obama's favorabilities high but the new Rassmus poll has his overall approval rating below 50% among likely voters nationwide.

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  2. I had noticed the party makeup, and also the "adults" rather than "registered voters."

    But, what really struck me was the story and headline designed to make Sarah look bad instead of a headline and story on the real key number in the poll. That is the decline in approval and increase in disapproval of the President. Approval down 6 plus disapproval up 6 for a swing of 12. The President - yes the one in power - drops 12 points in a month and the WaPp headline is about Sarah, a governor of Alaska who is resigning and unlikely to be President before 2013. Is Sarah more important than Obama? Is Sarah's approval now with no expectation of a campaign for years more important than the drop in support for the sitting President who draws his power in large part from the impact of polls on pols?

    Wow.

    So, why the hit on Sarah:

    1. To hurt Sarah because... well, just because, or out of fear of her power?

    or

    2. To hide the decline of support for Obama by ignoring him and assuming that Sarah will be noticed and Obama ignored?

    or

    3. Both 1 and 2.

    I say 3.

    But, all of this is amazing. For the WaPo, Sarah seems to be more important than the drop in approval and power and effectiveness of President Obama.

    Wow.

    ( This link is to a page that, at the moment, shows only a poll headline about Sarah, not Obama. If there is another story about his drop, I missed it. The page will change. http://www.washingtonpost.com/?nid=top_news&reload=true)

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  3. Great post. I suspect a conspiracy between the Wa Po and AP's Rachel D'Oro to make the Gov look bad on the weekend of her resignation.

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  4. Josh,
    Great post. All polls are slanted to the left. To many polls released recently have shown that Sarah has gained ground in overall favorables and among indies. PPP poll showed Obama beating Palin 51-43. Which means Palin has narrowed the gap by 10 pts since april. Rasmussen showed her losing only 48-42. The MSM doesn't want to show Palin rising as Obama plummets.

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  5. D'Oro needs to spend time picking lint from her belly button! At least that would be worthwhile work, quite unlike wallowing in the murkey depths she has enjoyed lately.

    WaPo and Huff-N-Puff hold hands while they skip down the parade route, vainly looking for their many (?) *cough* supporters.

    There are a lot of houses needing to be cleaned or gutted and rebuilt.

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