Thursday, July 16, 2009

Teaching Nate Silver

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight tried to phone one in by contrasting SarahPac's fundraising total with Mitt Romney's (which was double Governor Palin's) and Kay Bailey Hutchinson's (which was nine times as much). Apples and oranges, as William Teach points out at Right Wing News:
"But, Palin isn't actually running for Federal office, hasn't announced she is running for Federal office, and obviously isn't running for Governor of Alaska. Furthermore, SarahPAC is not about raising cash for a federal run."
And Teach didn't even mention several other things:

1. SarahPAC wasn't up and running until the end of January, so its totals came in five months, not six, as did those of Romney and Hutchison.

2. The governor's PAC took in no money for an additional month and a half as donors were encouraged to contribute to her legal defense fund instead of her PAC. So we're actually talking about three and a half months compared to six.

3. Romney and Hutchison were fundraising full time during the period, while Gov. Palin was mostly up in Alaska dealing with bogus, politically-motivated ethics complaints.

4. As Meghan Stapleton told Politico, "Just to put it in perspective, we did it with one event and one e-mail from the governor back in February."

Teach gives Silver credit, however, for admitting that SarahPAC took in a higher percentage of her total in small donations than any of the 2008 presidential candidates except Ron Paul.

- JP

2 comments:

  1. I have to admit, I was disappointed by the $733,000. I had pictured her raising about $6 million. But, after more research regarding PAC's I've since found out that the $733,000 is very respectable, and given the fact that about 60 percent was from small donations, it is quite remarkable. Romney's PAC has raised more, but from far fewer people since his average donor gave about $1,000.

    To the $733,000 you can add the more than $200,000 donated since her resignation speech, and the money raised by Alaska Fund Trust, her legal defense fund. That would probably put her right up there with the amount raised by Romney.

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  2. More:

    Note the big $ players and particularly the players who gave more to each side than the maximum Sarahpac allows.

    http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/texassouthwest/legislature/stories/DN-govmoney_16tex.ART.State.Edition1.4bc51b9.html

    Ned Holmes of Houston, a Perry appointee to the Texas Transportation Commission, gave $77,000 to Hutchison, campaign finance reports released Wednesday show.

    Robert Rowling of Dallas, who gave $100,000 to Hutchison, was on the University of Texas Board of Regents, and Charles Tate of Houston, also a $100,000 giver to Hutchison, used to be on Perry's Council for Science and Biotechnology.

    The candidates' reports also indicate that some Republican families are choosing different sides as Texas' two biggest political titans prepare to face off in the March GOP primary for governor.

    Rob Mosbacher of Houston, an unsuccessful candidate for lieutenant governor in 1990, gave $10,000 to Hutchison, but his stepmother, Mica Mosbacher, was Perry's largest donor, giving him $225,000.

    Oil man Sid Bass and his wife, Mercedes, gave $2,600 to Hutchison, while brother Lee and his wife, Ramona, are on the Perry financial team to raise money for his re-election.

    Investor Louis Beecherl of Dallas has given $100,000 to Hutchison. His wife, Julie, is listed as a member of the Perry campaign's financial team.

    In the reports that show donations from January through June, Hutchison raised a total of $6.7 million while Perry brought in $4.2 million.

    The governor, who is precluded from raising money during a legislative session, had only nine days to gather money.

    The report shows that $2.65 million of his total, 63 percent, came from 41 donors who wrote checks of $25,000 or more.

    Mark Miner, a spokesman for Perry, pointed out that many of the governor's supporters also had once been donors to Hutchison's senatorial campaigns, but are now picking Perry in the head-to-head race.

    "Governor Perry is very pleased with the financial support he has received, especially considering the limited amount of time he was able to raise funds," Miner said.

    Said Hutchison's spokesman, Hans Klingler: "We are proud to have over 6,500 donors from across the state including some who formerly supported our opponent. Plainly they all believe Kay Bailey Hutchison is the leader who will bring results not politics."

    As the race heats up, some prominent Republicans have yet to choose between the two. Houston Texans owner Robert McNair gave $25,000 to both Perry and Hutchison.

    Oil and gas businessman Dan Duncan also gave $50,000 to each, and rancher Richard Wallrath gave $10,000 to Hutchison and $12,500 to Perry.

    Yes, Silver is a spinster.

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