Smith: Palin would base campaign in Maricopa County (Updated)

"Alaska is an extremely difficult base for national politics"
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Based on what he hears from "a source with no name," Ben Smith writes that the Palin team, despite all the media buzz that it is not laying the groundwork for a 2012 presidential run, has been brainstorming how a campaign would be organized if she decides to run:

One early decision, a source says: It would be based in Scottsdale, Arizona, where Bristol Palin recently bought a house in nearby Maricopa.

One lesson of Palin's sometimes-difficult time in the spotlight has been that Alaska is an extremely difficult base for national politics. From a distant political culture to a daunting time difference, Palin hasn't been terribly well served by the fact that her state is little-known to reporters in the lower 48, and that email inquiries arrive at 3:00 a.m. needing answers by 5:00 a.m.

And Arizona carries its own significance: Basing a campaign there would be a provocative rejection of any lingering political cost from those who connect her harsh rhetoric and Gabrielle Giffords' shooting -- a traditional refusal to retreat. It's also the core of the politically contested, fast-growing new West.

Smith says Palin aides haven't respond to his inquiry about the rumored plans.

Updates...

Comment from Katrina Trinko at NRO's The Corner:

If accurate, this is another interesting hint that the Palin camp, despite having made no public overtures in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire, is still very seriously considering a run.

Smith's rumor is the seed from which even more bizarre rumors spring, as The Arizona Republic's Dan Nowicki blogs:

On Tuesday, state Rep. Steve Farley, D-Tucson, forwarded a rumor that Palin was contemplating coming to Arizona to run for retiring Republican U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl’s open seat in 2012.

But if a Democrat says something, it's always a pretty good bet that it's a lie. From Henry D'Andrea at Politicons we learn:

SarahPAC treasurer Tim Crawford emails, “There has been no decision about where a campaign would be based.”

Crawford's denial hasn't quelled the buzz:

Political analyst Jamie Molera cited several reasons to give the rumor credit.

"I don't think its something where she threw a dart on the board and said, 'Arizona's going to be the place we're going to start from'. I think they've done polling data, I think they've talked to a number of individuals within and outside of the party structure, and I think she made a calculated decision that Arizona is going to be a good place top launch her national platform," Molera said.

Molera said the large population of tea party members in the state and Palin's overwhelming popularity within the group may also help explain choosing Arizona.

- JP