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In a new Gallup Poll just released, former governor Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin lead a field of prospective GOP presidential candidates among a sample of 490 Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Romney was named by 14% and Palin by 11 percent. The poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent puts the two in a statistical tie for the lead.
Others named include 2008 GOP presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, who somewhat surprisingly, finished ahead of former Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Speaker Newt Gingrich. Scott Brown, who was recently sworn is as the junior U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, also was named more ofter than Huckabee and Gingrich.
Rep. Ron Paul, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, former Senator Fred Thompson and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal also were name by at least 1 percent of the respondents. The survey asked respondents, without providing them with a list of name to choose from,whom they would most like to see as the GOP's 2012 presidential candidate.
Primary Election Matchup
Romney 14
Palin 11
McCain 7
Brown 4
Huckabee 3
Gingrich 3
Paul 2
Pawlenty 1
McDonnell 1
Thompson 1
Jindal 1
Gallup also found that a generic GOP candidate would run virtually even with President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 matchup, with 42% choosing the president and 42 percent the generic Republican. The poll's 3.2 percent margin of error means such a proposed contest would be a tossup. 942 registered voters were surveyed from Feb. 1 to Feb. 3.
The full Gallup report is here.
- JP
This is why sometimes polls aren't worth the time of day
ReplyDeleteGallup "Whereas conservative (15%) and moderate or liberal (14%) Republicans are about equally likely to mention Romney as their preferred nominee, Palin is much more likely to be mentioned by conservatives (14%) than by moderates and liberals (3%). Conservatives generally outnumber moderates and liberals by about 2 to 1 within the Republican Party."
It was reported months ago that more people identify themselves as being conservative rather then liberal, the gallup poll said that much. If more conservatives mention Palin then Romney who is preferred by moderates, how is it possible in Gallup's poll that Sarah is three points being Romney as the front runner?
Since it is likely to come down to Romney vs Palin, the crucial point is how would those who have not voted for them split their vote.
ReplyDeleteFrom this perspective, Palin's campaigning for McCain and Ron Paul's son are smart choices.