It's a rare day indeed when we find ourselves in full agreement with Rick Moran on any topic, but in an American Thinker Blog post Sunday, he echoed some of the same points we have been making for weeks:
By sheer force of her personality and charisma, Palin is slowly changing the narrative about her that arose during and after the 2008 campaign. Her personal numbers have been climbing since her book "Going Rogue" came out, and it appears to me that the more the American people see of her, the more they like her.That Sarah Palin is running for president is clear. What is not so clear is in which election cycle or cycles she will make her charge toward the White House. Will it be 2012, 2016 or 2020 -- or some combination of the three?
Mark Ambinder thinks that she sounded like a candidate for 2012. I'm not so sure. She's awfully far behind in terms of building a campaign staff, fund raising, and lining up support in key states. This is not to say she can't catch up. But I think realistically, she has to make a decision before November and between now and then, she can do some stuff that are candidate-like, but leaves her options open. That would seem to be the smart move given how far away 2012 really is.
However, the longer she waits to commit to running, the tougher it will be. Romney, Huckabee, and Pawlenty have been running almost before the cheers for Obama died down following the 2008 election. There will come a point where Palin will be squeezed because her rivals will have snapped up the best political pros, the top fund raisers, and the most important endorsements. That point arrives earlier every election. It will be interesting to see how she plays the game.
- JP
I'm 99% certain that Sarah will run in 2012. The old saying goes "strike while the iron is hot". Pawlenty has no traction, and Romney is seen as a GOP insider and a Johnny come lately conservative. This is the reason why Palin at the top of the list regardless of whether the insiders of the GOP, the media and liberals in general like it or not. Palin has done way to many things that a person would do in laying a presidential run then to chance having another republican beat Obama and having to wait 4 to 8 years down the road to run.
ReplyDeleteI'm torn. While I think she will run in '12 and probably should, I really believe she would have a better chance to become POTUS in 2016. I am still not convinced that Obama, for all his screw-ups, will lose in '12. I'm kind of in the John Ziegler school on this. The media will rally 'round Obama. He's too big or perhaps too symbolic to fail. It could be that the voters will be content to leave Obama as President for a second term while giving the Republicans majorties in the House and Senate. This, I think is the most likely scenario.
ReplyDeleteBut on balance I think she should run in '12. If she gets the nomination, that's great, then she goes up against Obama and takes her chances. But I would hate to see her get the nomination and lose. Better perhaps for her future if she finishes a very close second to Romney. Romney then loses to Obama, and that would really clear the field for Sarah in the '16 primaries and the general. Repubs will be telling themselves - we really picked the worng person in '12; gotta give give her a chance. Plus by then the country will be feeling the same about Obama as they did with Bush 2 in the latter part of his second term. Therefore - Sarah Palin POTUS 2016!
"johnfromcanada", interesting commentary, but too many of us are not willing to wait that long as well as unwilling to give the leftist wackos like Obama any more time in our government. Us Tea Party folk don't give one damn what the lamestream media have to say about ANYTHING! And, our "movement" is bigger than Obama and his "telepromptors". ALL the Statists have to go ASAP! Sarah in 2012? You betcha!!!
ReplyDeleteYou don't need the best campaign operatives or the top fundraisers to win. You need the support of the people, and more important, their undying loyalty to the cause. The wheat will be separated from the chaff in the upcoming months. We are already seeing it happen as we speak.
ReplyDeleteI'm intrigued by Moran's comment that you have to have a campaign apparatus in place three years out. My times have changed. Of course Mitt Romney has been running for President since November 2008 (and some would say even still after he dropped out, at least his staff still was).
ReplyDelete"johnincanada" summed up my thoughts completely. I really view 2012 as a parallel to 1976 not 1980 within the Republican party, with Sarah as Reagan and Romney as Ford. I think she will run as a "movement conservative" leader knowing that the establishment Republicans are still strong enough to gang up on her and deny her the nomination, finishing second to Romney. I think she also knows it is likely Obama will be reelected - especially if the Republicans retake the House and Senate in 2010. People dislike Obama's policies but they still like him personally - and unless that changes he will be reelected.
ReplyDeleteMike Huckabee expressed these same sentiments in a recent interview and I'm now convinced Huckabee will not run in 2012. He has done no funraising this year (his PAC only raised $800,000 to SarahPac's $2.1 million). All the others like Pawlenty, Thune, Pence etc. will run to establish name recognition for 2016 and possibly be picked as a VP candidate. The race will essentially be between Sarah and Romney.
Given that she knows she can't win, and is really positioning herself for 2016, she will run a very unconventional campaign (but very conventional for Sarah). A grassroots, living off the land campaign, low budget, accepting only small donations from people not corporations. Her campaign will be about changing the very face of conservatism and the Republican party. Again, the goal is not to win but to be in a position to take over and reform the Party after Romney loses to Obama.
If she runs this type of campaign, she can start very late, have no need for a whole bunch of consultants and campaign machinery, and doesn't have to raise a lot of money. She already has instant name recognition and acceptance with the base, and will immediately move into second place as soon as she enters the campaign. Because she is so loved by the base, she is unlike any other candidate and the usual rules Moran talks about do not apply to Sarah.
I think she also realizes she is probably not yet ready to assume the Presidency in 2012, and would still like to spend more time with her very young family - especially Trig - and the Presidency would not permit this. She knows that the first 5 years of a child's life are very important and she would not have the time she wants to bond with Trig if she were to become President in 2012. This is why she has Trig travel with her so much. Also, perceptions take a while to change, and she may still not be able to get her favorables up enough by 2012.
Of course the danger in running for second place is that you could end up winning even if you don't want to!!
While Rusty and I generally agree, there are a couple of things I'm not sure about in his posting.
ReplyDeleteIf she runs (and I think she will), it will not be to intentionally finish second. She will run to win. I believe she thinks she can win and she will give it her all. She always does. But if she finishes a strong second to Romney and the party establishment, she is well set up well for another run (especially if Romney loses to Obama, which is likely, I think).
I also don't think she has any doubts about her readiness to be President. That doesn't come across to me at all.