Adam Brickley on Sarahtarianism

Adam Brickley has posted an op-ed at Race 4 2012 titled Sarahtarianism, a word he's coined to refer to the classic, "pre-McCain" Palin political personna. That Sarah Palin, says Brickley, was much more libertarian than the social conservative political definition that the media applied to the former governor.

Brickley's arguments are as follows:

"1. The Huckabee Myth:  Sarah Palin is not, and has never been, competing for the same votes as Mike Huckabee."

Huckabee is something of a compassionate conservative/social conservative (think George W. Bush after a neoconectomy), while Palin is more focused on fiscal and energy security issues. 

"2. Palinistas = Fredheads"

Fred Thompson has indeed aligned himself closely with Palin, and his wife and talk show partner Jeri Thompson is a spokesperson for Team Sarah. Thompson and Palin both subscribe to the modern federalist view of a limited federal government with an emphasis on the rights and responsibilities of states and individuals.

"3. The Rudy Factor"

Rudy Giuliani has befriended and supported Sarah Palin, not Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney. Rudy and Sarah, who were both mayors and corruption fighters, have a kind of kinship that Hizzonor shares with no other major GOP contender for 2012. Brickley says that a Giuliani endorsement of Sarah Palin would likely give her a lock on the libertarian wing of the GOP. Combine the libertarians with the Frederalists, and you have a force to be reckoned with. 

"4. New Hampshire, Baby!"

Brickley doesn't agree with the conventional wisdom which holds that Sarah Palin will concede New Hampshire to Mitt Romney so she can concentrate on winning Iowa. He argues that New hampshire folks have much in common with Alaskans, and those are voters that Palin understands best and knows how to win over. He also believes that she stands a good chance of capturing the votes of Granite Staters who voted for McCain. Finally, Brickley cites Mitt’s "potential for last-minute implosion" as reasons for Sarah to invest in a strong New Hampshire effort, as a win or strong second-place finish there would give her great momentum.

While we agree wholeheartedly with Brickley's first three points we're not so sure about the fourth one. We recall this Hotline item from May:

Sources familiar with Romney's activities say the Republican, whose 2008 presidential campaign fizzled, intends to make his primary residence at the family vacation home in Wolfeboro, NH, which is also a favorite vacation spot of Romney's children and grandchildren.

[...]

Romney has already established a beachhead in the Granite State; in March, his Free and Strong America PAC registered with the NH Secretary of State's office. The PAC made a $1,000 contribution to former GOP congressman Jeb Bradley, who won a special election for a state Senate seat that includes Wolfeboro on April 21. Bradley did not endorse in the 2008 GOP presidential primary.

Meanwhile, Romney supporters from the 2008 New Hampshire primary--which he narrowly lost to eventual GOP nominee, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)--continue to stay in touch with each other. His state campaign manager, Jim Merrill, keeps up a busy e-mail communication with Romney supporters in the state and occasionally meets with them. "We stay in close contact," said Merrill, who added that he performs this task "on my own" and not in coordination with Romney's PAC.

"No doubt in my mind that they are doing the necessary maintenance to keep their network in New Hampshire together," noted veteran Granite State GOP operative Mike Dennehy, who was a senior adviser to McCain's 2008 campaign.

Establishing residency in NH could raise expectations for Romney's performance in the state's 2012 primary, but the state is also flush with important contests in the upcoming 2010 midterm elections, where Romney could lend a hand.

It's not that we don't think former Governor Palin could make a credible showing in New Hampshire -- she did appear at well-attended and enthusiastic 2008 campaign events in Dover, Laconia and Salem -- but Romney has a very big head start on her there. She has yet to build a New Hampshire organization (or in any state other than Alaska, for that matter), but if she's interested in making a run, now is the time for Sarah Palin to organize in the key states.

- JP