A new SurveyUSA poll conducted for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV shows Republican Rand Paul increasing his lead over Democrat Jack Conway in the Kentucky U.S. Senate Race. Paul, who was endorsed six months ago by Sarah Palin, now has a fifteen point advantage over Conway, 55 percent to 40 percent:
The margin of error for the poll is 4.2 points, which was conducted between Aug. 30 and Sept. 1, is 4.2 points. Other polls taken in mid- and late-August put Paul ahead by between five and 10 percentage points, according to polling data compiled by realclearpolitics.com.Complete poll results are here.
Doug Heye, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, on Sunday said the poll results shouldn’t come as a surprise. “The Obama agenda is unpopular in Kentucky and candidates who have publicly supported [Obama’s health-care overhaul], like Jack Conway, are seeing their numbers drop like a rock,” he said.
Neither campaign could be reached for comment on Sunday.
- JP
Josh - What these recent polls are picking up - and which most commentators have not yet picked up - is that there is a fundamental realignment taking place in the electorate - much as what took place in 1980 under Ronald Reagan - and that is - white men are abandoning the Democratic party in unprecedented numbers.
ReplyDeleteUsing Survey USA polls only (to ensure the same methodology is being employed) here are the gender gaps in their last two weeks of polling.
Rand Paul (R) (Kentucky - Senate)
Men +34 Women -3
Bill Hunt (R) (Virginia - 05)
Men +29 Women +24
Jamie Herrera (R) (Washingto - 03)
Men +22 Women +6
Meg Whitman (R) (Cal. - Gov.)
Men +14 Women -1
Carly Fiorina (R) (Cal. - Sen.)
Men +13 Women -9
John Koster (R) (Washington - 02)
Men +11 Women -4
In 1980, white men abandoned the Democratic Party and stayed with the Republican Party until 1992 when they started to drift back under Clinton. Bush got a few of them back - but Obama in 2008 recaptured a lot of white male voters. However, if these polls are any indication, white males are deserting the Democrats and Obama in droves again, just like under Reagan.
These poll results also show young voters, and pretty much all voters under 50, are voting Republican. Democrats are returning to their very narrow base of minorities, women and older voters.
Clearly, the male voters and under 50 voters are returning to Republicans because of the economy and lack of jobs - just like 1980. However women voters and older voters are sticking to Democrats because of their fear of how reduced government entitlements will affect their children and Social Security.
Democrats in order to build a firewall around their base will campaign on protecting children and Social Security and Republicans need to counter this by emphasizing the debt burden Democrats are putting on children and how more debt could lead to the collapse of Social Security. Also, how Obamacare will result in a deterioration of health services for children and seniors.If they do this they could win more women and seniors over to them and completely destroy the Democrats this year.
Also, note how female Republican candidates like Meg Whitman and Jamie Herrera are doing well with women - much better than their male counterparts. Republican women - running against Democratic males - are going to have a real advantage in this election cycle by being able to run even with women while enjoying a huge male gender gap. Carly Fiorina, on the other hand, is not doing well with women as she is running against a Democratic woman. Democratic women running against Republican males will have the best chance of surviving this election cycle.
If Sarah can help Republicans with the women's vote, they will decimate the Democrats in 2010. Her message should be focused on how Obama's economic policies are destroying the future of America's children and families: and how Obamacare is harming families, especially children and seniors. This could then position her well for 2012.