Perry continues to lead in Texas race for governor

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The race for governor in Texas has not changed significantly since the GOP's 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin campaigned in Cypress for incumbent Rick Perry in February, according to a new poll conducted for the Houston Chronicle and four other state newspapers. Former Houston mayor Bill White, a Democrat, has been unable to gain any traction against Republican Perry largely because voters remain dissatisfied with President Obama and believe that Perry has helped save the Texas economy, according to political analysts:

Perry leads with 46 percent support to 39 percent for White, with Libertarian candidate Kathie Glass trailing at 4 percent among likely voters; 11 percent were undecided.

Green Party candidate Deb Shafto had less than 1 percent support.

"It's not an insurmountable lead," said pollster Micheline Blum, but "he certainly looks like he's headed for another term. … Perry has probably both the votes and the enthusiasm behind him."

Despite White and his allies spending millions of dollars on television ads attacking Perry this summer, Blum said the race has remained essentially unchanged since February.

Blum said voters seem to have made up their minds early, and she sees little volatility in the race. Blum said the voters who are undecided probably will not cast a ballot Nov. 2.

The enthusiasm of Republican voters is dramatic. Among registered voters who answered the survey, Republicans held an advantage of 9 percentage points — roughly typical of the vote in recent elections.

Among those who said they are likely to vote, the Republican advantage jumped to 18 percentage points over Democrats.

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Perry and White are in almost a dead heat in Houston and San Antonio. Perry is drubbing White in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, with a lead of more than 30 percentage points in those cities. White holds a 7-point lead in Austin.

The two are even in urban areas, but Perry has an almost 11-percentage-point lead in non-urban areas.

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Perry holds a 3-percentage-point lead over White among men and a 10-point advantage among women. Blum said that may reflect women viewing Perry as the candidate most likely to bring about economic security.

The telephone survey was conducted Sept. 15-22 using a random sample of both registered and likely voters, by Blum & Weprin for the Houston Chronicle, the San Antonio Express-News, the Austin American-Statesman and The Dallas Morning News.

- JP