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Contrary to how some have reported, the SRLC straw poll is, to paraphrase Joe Biden, no big effin' deal. Consider that only half of those attending the conference even bothered to vote in the poll. Consider further that the winners of these straw polls rarely end up winning the GOP presidential nomination. Bill Frist (remember him?) won the last SRLC straw poll four years ago.
Nevertheless, some potential candidates make considerable investments in winning the poll. Evangelicals for Romney and the Ron Paul forces gave away free tickets, books and other goodies. SarahPAC spent a mere pittance by comparison, choosing only to put a bag of caribou jerky on each delegate's chair. In terms of bang for the buck, SarahPAC seems to have gotten more than its money's worth, as she finished third in the first choice vote and second in the second choice honors, finishing just 9 votes out of first place.
Much analysis of the straw poll will follow in the next few days, and then it will fade into insignificance. This far out from 2012, presidential polls don't mean much, whether they be made of straw or science. The race for the White House has barely even begun, and it's a marathon, not a sprint. The starter still has his pistol in the air. Shoot, (Oops, we said "shoot") the race doesn't even get interesting until the Iowa caucuses, and that's some 20 months away.
So just for Schlitz and grins, here are the SRLC 2010 Straw Poll Results, courtesy of Wilson Research Strategies:
1. If the primary election for president were held today, for whom would you vote? Please check the box by the candidate of your choice.
Mitt Romney 24% (439 votes)
Ron Paul 24% (438 votes)
Sarah Palin 18% (330 votes)
Newt Gingrich 18% (321 votes)
Mike Huckabee 4%
Tim Pawlenty 3%
Mike Pence 3%
Rick Santorum 2%
Gary Johnson 1%
2. Who would be your second choice in the Republican Primary Election for president?
Newt Gingrich 19% (339 votes)
Sarah Palin 18% (332 votes)
Mitt Romney 13% (242 votes)
Mike Huckabee 10% (178 votes)
Mike Pence 8%
Rick Santorum 7%
Gary Johnson 6%
Tim Pawlenty 6%
Ron Paul 5%
- JP
Leaving out details that depend on who spent how much, etc., there are two significant facts. One is that, realistically, the race has consolidated (as expected) to Romney, Gingrich and Palin. The second is that Palin has the momentum, as measured, e.g., by the (enormous) difference in her standing (in the party) now and what it was the day she resigned. (The other two have hardly moved).
ReplyDeleteWell written Josh. But the one interesting thing about this poll is that they had people list their "second" choices. This is important in assessing a candidate's strength in a multi candidate primary, as a winning candidate needs to be able to pick up the supporters of other candidates who eventually drop out of the race, in order to eventually win the nomination. This is why Huckabee will never get the nomination. While he may have substantial support as a first choice, he has little support as a second choice.
ReplyDeleteIf you add up the first choice and second choice votes you get the following results:
1) Romney 681
2) Palin 662
3) Gingrich 660
Pretty much a three way tie with no one else even close to them. The fact Ron Paul only got 5% second choice votes shows how "astro-turfed" his first choice vote was. And if one assumes Romney did more astro-turfing than Sarah in this straw poll, she is clearly the more favored candidate.
I have always maintained that if Sarah decides to run it will quickly narrow down to a Romney- Palin race because of her ability to attract a wide range of second choice votes from Libertarians, SoCons, fiscal cons, Tea Pariers neo cons etc.. However, if Huckabee runs, he will draw enough first choice voters to allow Romney to win the plurality of the vote in many states. And if he stays stubbornly in the race, finishing third behind Palin, he will give the nomination to Romney - just like he gave it to McCain.
Finally, if Sarah and Huckabee decide to not run, it will quickly become a two way race between Romney and Gingrich. Gingrich will get many of Palin's and Huckabee's voters and also be the predominant second choice of other candidates' voters.
So overall, the only significant thing one can draw from this straw poll, is that Sarah has very strong second vote appeal. And that has to be very encouraging to her supporters.
Iowa is still 1 year and 7 months away. Polls don't mean squat at this point. I still don't know why the media keeps on putting out democrat oversampled polls showing that Palin can't win in 2012. Who are they trying to convince? I got a good laugh from the CBS News poll, but why do they keep doing it?
ReplyDelete