It's a bit too soon for the Republican Derby

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Politics Daily's Matt Lewis uses a Kentucky Derby theme to handicap the 2012 GOP presidential primary race. Unlike the Derby, which will be run tomorrow, however, primary season is not exactly right around the corner. But that fact has never deterred pundits from engaging in their favored exercise of political prognostication, so let's take a look.

Lewis says Mitt Romney is the horse to beat and gives him 3-1 odds. We believe that RomneyCare so similar to the wildly unpopular ObamaCare care that it qualifies as a genuine Achilles Heel, or to use Lewis' metaphor, this horse will pull up lame. The former Massachusetts governor may be perceived by the punditocracy to have that much of a lead on the rest of the pack, but keep in mind that these are the same "experts" who told us that Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton would be neck and neck going down the home stretch in 2008. So much for the experts...

Matt puts Sarah Palin second, in the "place" position with odds of 7-2. We think the odds against her are not really that long. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and she's preparing for the long haul by running laps around the country, making many new friends, some of whom are major donors to conservative Republican candidates. Plus, she's doing some donating of her own through her leadership PAC and endorsing a growing slate of young candidates, many of whom are veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan. If most of them win their races this year for Congressional seats and governors' mansions, she will have an army of elected Republicans who share more in common than their military service. They will owe her huge debts of gratitude. Those endorsements will likely be repaid with interest. Don't misunderestimate this runner.

Next, Lewis has Tim Pawlenty to show at odds of 6-1. The Minnesota governor may be making all the right moves, but he not only doesn't excite the base -- he doesn't even interest it.

Fourth in Lewis' handicapping is Mike Huckabee. Another former governor, the affable "Huck Spin" polls well, and he doesn't seem to have been as damaged by his granting of clemency to Maurice Clemmons as was initially expected. Lewis astutely observes that Huckabee has a money-raising problem, plus fiscal conservatives just don't believe The Other Man From Hope is one of their kind. In addition, illegal immigration is suddenly a hot topic once again, and voters will be reminded that Huckabee believes that the states are obligated to provide higher eduction for the children of illegals at the taxpayers' expense. That's too many negatives in an election likely to be all about the economy. And as Lewis also notes, this horse doesn't seem like he wants to run, and run hard.

In fifth place, Lewis has dark horse John Thune at 10-1. Matt has always had a soft spot for this horse, but we don't think voters will want to try their luck with another Senator after the mess Obama and McCain made out of the race track. It has to be a governor or former governor at the top of the ticket this time.

As to the 12-1 Mitch Daniels in sixth, see Tim Pawlenty above. Only the excitement factor is even lower with Daniels. We're not saying that he couldn't catch fire, but has anyone heard this guy speak? Yawn...

Newt Gingrich is seventh in Lewis' field at odds of 15-1. In addition to the bad endorsements problem cited, there's the personal baggage. Any guy who can't wait until his wife gets out of the hospital to divorce her can't win the GOP nomination, much less get himself elected president. The professor will make a great senior advisor for someone, though.

At number eight with odds of 20-1, Matt has Haley Barbour. We believe that Mississippi's governor deserves better odds, and his time as a lobbyist shouldn't be much of a problem, seeing how Obama has recruited many of the same to help staff his administration.

As for Lewis' 12-1 dark horses, Rubio hasn't even won the Senate seat he's seeking, and Brown has barely had enough time to warm up Ted Kennedy's old chair. C'mon, Matt. As for Jindal, Petraeus and Perry, what part of "no" don't pundits understand? Lewis cites the odds against a sitting U.S. Representative in a presidential contest as a major hurdle for Pence, but he seems to be on everyone's veep list. And if Sarah Palin gets portrayed by the media as "divisive," they would paint a portrait of Santorum as a bomb thrower and get away with it. That leaves Ron Paul to bring up the rear of the field, just as he did last time around the old track. There just aren't enough libertarians to push the quirky Congressman to the front of the pack.

Again, it's way too early for the GOP's game of "Race Horse," but the real deal is tomorrow in Louisville. Enjoy the one and a quarter miles of running Thoroughbreds.

- JP