Tyler Harber at Wilson Research Strategies has performed a detailed analysis of the Saturday SRLC straw poll results:
The SRLC 2012 Presidential Straw Poll demonstrates that organization matters. Both Romney and Paul were strongly prepared for the conference, buying tickets for supporters, hosting events, and printing literature, posters and stickers.Here are some of his findings:
Unlike Romney, Palin spoke at the conference to a packed house. She clearly excited attendees, but Palin’s straw poll performance suffered significantly due to a lack of organization.
Paul’s support was largely artificial and unrepresentativeSarah Palin won the Lone Star State, capturing 30% of the votes of Texans attending the event, and she was the first choice of voters in the 55 to 64 age group.
"...Paul places dead-last as attendees’ second choice indicating that the votes that Ron Paul received were almost exclusively from people his organization bused in for the event."
"The majority of Paul’s ballot support is primarily young men ages 35 or younger, as the Texas Congressman earns only token support among older attendees. This is another key data-point that show Paul’s inability to earn support from attendees that are representative of the primary electorate at-large."
Gingrich, Palin and Romney receive support from McCain voters
"... Those supporting McCain in 2008 supported Gingrich, Palin and Romney similarly."
Romney unable to carry his full support base
"Despite making a strong showing, Romney only earns the support of 54% of attendees who supported him in 2008."
Huckabee voters desert him, choosing Palin and Newt
"Huckabee only earns 20% of the votes from people supporting him 2008..."
Palin and Newt earn votes from supporters of virtually all the 2008 candidates
"Palin and Gingrich earn similar support from nearly the full spectrum of supporters of 2008 candidates, while Romney draws strength from his original supporters in addition to McCain and Giuliani voters."
Full crosstabs are here in a PDF document.
FiveThirtyEight has also analyzed the straw poll numbers, as we reported in our Monday Morning Sarahcuda Bites here. People sure seem to have gone to a lot of trouble to examine a poll that doesn't mean much. Oh, well...