Zeigler and RedState Get It Wrong

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As we like to point out from time to time, nearly everyone who is a contributing writer on political websites considers himself or herself a consultant. Fortunately, their advice is free, because that's precisely what it's worth. That's not to say that there isn't some good advice mixed in with the bad, but smart politicians tend to eschew the suggestions of the keyboard consultancies, preferring instead to pay good money for the advice of professionals. Even the latter course is not always a safe bet, as Bob Shrum has repeatedly demonstrated with his perfect, but losing, record in presidential elections.

We have also said many times here that Sarah Palin is a smart politician. Her political instincts, which have been praised by both her friends and foes, have served her well. That most of the free advice being dished out on the Web is aimed at Gov. Palin is an indicator that the freeware consultancies refuse to give the governor her due. Oh, but they mean well, as they will be the first to insist they want to see Sarah succeed, which she will do, they say, if only she would heed their advice.

Two of the latest armchair advisors to tell the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee what she should or shouldn't do are documentary film maker John Ziegler (Why Palin shouldn’t run in 2012) and our friend and former colleague at RedState.com, E Pluribus Unum (Palin should not run in 2012).

EPU's arguments are essentially Ziegler's, refocused to scold those pesky Palin supporters who are foolish enough to post anything positive about the Governor on RedState.com, where a hit squad of usual suspects will pound them with derogatory comments which sometimes descend into ad hominem attacks with no reprisals from the site's moderators. There are a select few at the top of the RS regular contributor pyramid who are allowed to praise Palin unmolested, but those who dwell on the pyramid's lower levels (down in the diaries) can't get away with it.

EPU/Ziegler's first argument is that Sarah Palin is "playing exclusively to the home crowd." They cite her decision to take a position as a Fox News contributor as evidence of this. It would be a great argument if only hard core conservatives made up the viewership of Fox News. But according to a survey by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, fully 39 percent of Fox News' viewers describe themselves as Democrats or independents who lean Democrat. Take the "leaners" out of the mix, and the Fox News audience is 39 percent Republican, 33 percent Democrat and 22 percent independent. So much for the argument that appearing on FNC plays exclusively to her base. Bad assumptions nearly always lead to faulty conclusions.

EPU cites Ziegler's point that "It would be extremely easy for Palin to get a part-time gig on one of the big broadcast networks," which he says would allow her to reach "the persuadable center," calling it a "lost opportunity." Yet neither EPU nor Ziegler offer any evidence that she could have landed a job with the alphabet networks. Ziegler even goes so far as to state:

"You can’t tell me ABC’s 'This Week' with a new host wouldn’t have killed to have Palin join them as weekly commentator."

And therein lies the problem. You can't tell John Ziegler anything that he doesn't want to hear (we know; we've tried). What is ABC going to do, fire George Will and give Sarah Palin the token conservative chair at the "This Week" roundtable? We don't think so. But if Ziegler has any inside information about any firm job offers ABC, CBS or NBC tendered to Gov. Palin, now's the time to share it with us.

Ziegler and EPU also assume that by identifying with the Tea Party movement, Gov. Palin is playing strictly to her base. This is another assumption which has no basis in fact. Research conducted by Rasmussen Reports in February tends to contradict the assumption:

Seventy-five percent (75%) of voters now say they are at least somewhat angry at the government’s current policies, up four points from late November and up nine points since September. The overall figures include 45% who are Very Angry, also a nine-point increase since September. Part of the frustration is likely due to the belief of 60% of voters that neither Republican political leaders nor Democratic political leaders have a good understanding of what is needed today.

The same survey found that a plurality of forty-one percent of unaffiliated voters view the Tea Party movement favorably, so the argument that Sarah Palin is only preaching to the choir with her involvement in the Tea Party movement is clearly a weak one.

Actually, Sarah Palin is making use of means other than Fox News and the Tea Party movement to reach out to independents. Her Going Rogue memoir was a big step in that direction, and appearances with Oprah, Barbara Walters, Conan O'Brien and Jay Leno -- just to name a few -- were chosen by Gov. Palin to demonstrate to a larger American audience that she is not what her detractors have worked for eighteen months to define her as. The first step for Gov. Palin to win over independents is to "undemonize" herself, and that is exactly what she is doing. But it's not something that can be magically accomplished overnight, and she is the first to realize this. Her second book and the proposed documentary series on Alaska she is working on will be other steps in the process.

The second major Ziegler/EPU argument is that Obama’s negatives would be Sarah Palin's negatives:

Think of it this way, if things are truly that desperate in 2012, is America really going to dump a guy who at least has four years of Presidential experience for a person who has none, who “quit” her job as Governor of a small state, and who they have been told over and over is not very bright?

What Ziegler and EPU are overlooking here is that four years of mistakes will hardly be considered worthwhile "Presidential experience" by voters. And poll after poll tell us that most Americans believe that Obama is screwing up royally. Sarah Palin, on the other hand, has an actual list of accomplishments she can point to, not the least of which is sound financial stewardship of Alaska on her watch. She also has a long list of policy statements on her Facebook page which demonstrate that she understands the issues. The list gets even longer with each passing week. Furthermore, resigning her position as governor has never been a major issue for the majority of Americans, although her political enemies have tried to make hay out of it. They are left with nothing but straw men.

The next Ziegler/EPU talking point is "The leftist media would love to set her up to battle Obama, then crush her." Can anyone name any other potential Republican candidate the media wouldn't love to do the same thing to? They did it to McCain, and they would do it to Mitt Romeny, Tim Pawlenty or whomever the GOP chooses as its presidential candidate. So where's the beef in the argument if it applies to any and all potential Republican candidates? There's no there there.

The final Ziegler/EPU argument isn't actually an argument, but a prescription for Sarah Palin to forgo 2012 and make a run in 2016 or 2020 when she will have accumulated more familiarity with issues, more political capital, etc. Then they go on to say that she may well take this route anyway. We've observed that this indeed may be her plan, but we learned some time ago not to presume to tell the governor what she should or shouldn't do when we suggested that she hire Fred Thompson as a policy advisor and Jeri Thompson as a media consultant. Fortunately, we came to the realization that undocumented political consultants just aren't that much in demand in the present shrinking job market. We hope that other would-be advisors will learn the same lesson, especially when their arguments, like those made by Ziegler and EPU, are less than convincing. Whatever Gov. Palin decides to do, we will support her because we trust her. She has a servant's heart, and she will not betray it.

Joshua Livestro further deconstructs Ziegler and EPU here.

- JP