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Rasmussen Reports, in a survey taken four months ago, found that in a hypothetical presidential match up between Barack Obama and Sarah Palin, the president would win by a six-point margin, 48 percent to 42 percent.
The results of a similar poll conducted November 24 show that Sarah Palin has cut Obama's lead over her by half. Now the president leads by a three-point margin, 46 percent to 43 percent.
That more recent survey by Rasmussen also provides us with a head to head match up on favorables, with Obama being seen favorably by 48 percent of the sample of voters, while Palin is viewed favorably by 46 percent.
Results of a FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll released a week ago also show Sarah Palin's favorability ratings significantly improved over those measured by the same pollster in July.
- JP
Total favorables/unfavorables (Dems, Repubs. & Indies)are meaningless - both for Sarah and the other GOP contenders.
ReplyDeleteSarah does more poorly than the othere GOP contenders on total favorables because she polls so poorly with Dems. But this is meaningless. Even though Huckabee and Romney poll well with Dems., the Dems. will still not vote for them. Case in point, John McCain had great favorables with Dems. but not one Dem. ended up voting for him in 2008. So polling well with Dems. is meaningless. Barack Obama's polling numbers are much like Sarah's right now in that he polls very poorly with Repubs..
Also, even though Sarah doesn't poll well with the Republican elites, in the end they will vote for her to prevent a second disasterous term for Obama.
The key is how Sarah polls with independents, especially white suburban women independents. Particularily in a few key states like Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina If she can turn her image around with these voters, pick off a few lower income, low education, blue collar white Democrats, and make some gains with hispanics, she will be President even if 100% of Democrats see her as highly unfavorable.
A 2012 election between Obama and Sarah will be between two polarizing figures, and the election will be fought over those white independent suburban women in the key swing states - basically on economic issues, particularily the impact govt. debt will have on these women's children's future. Sarah understands this, that is why her first "re-introduction" - interviews were with Oprah and Barbara Walters. Also, note how Sarah is praising Hillary Clinton and said she would like to meet with her for coffee. This is smart politics.
To sum up Sarah's total favorables/unfavorables are meaningless. We need a breakout to see how she is doing with independents - especially women.