Don't believe everything you read

At Race 4 2012, Alex Knepper has a post assessing the likelihood that several GOP pols of interest will make a run for their party's 2012 presidential nomination.

He assigns an 88% probability of Gov. Palin running and says:

Now this woman is a novelty. She’s got legions of adoring fans ready to crawl over shattered glass for her, and she needs to tap into that energy before it goes away. She’s young and needs time to mature, but who cares? Not her. Not her fans. Certainly not the media. You can’t blink, man. It’s probably 2012 or never for Palin. She’s going to need to get re-elected governor by a landslide (which is likely), get a host of credible foreign policy hawks on her team, and she’ll be good to go for a credible run.

Potential VPs: Giuliani, Romney, Sanford, Perry, Ridge (Her dream VP would be Petraeus, but keep dreaming, Sarah)

Alex doesn't give much in the way of reasoning for what he says, and I can only wonder what he bases any of this on.

First of all, it's not "2012 or never" for Sarah Palin. 2012 may or may not turn out to be a good year to join the fight to carry the Republican banner. She could, if she so desires, challenge Mark Begich for his senate seat in 2014 and spend some time there before making a presidential run in 2020 She would only be 55 years old then. Or she could win a second term as governor and run for president in 2016. There are also other possibilities, although they are less likely ones. But there is no window of opportunity closing on the governor's possible paths to the White House, should she choose to follow one of them.

Also, what incredible powers allow anyone to read the governor's mind? What evidence is there that she doesn't care whether she needs some time to mature as a politician? I find this statement nothing less than astounding.

Then there's the list of possible Palin running mates. She may have someone else in mind, if indeed she is even thinking along such lines.  I seriously doubt that she is "dreaming" of having Gen. Petraeus or anyone else right now as a running mate. She just bet a considerable amount of her political capital on a virtual endorsement of Michael  Steele to remain as RNC Chairman, for example. 

Finally, Sarah Palin's fans are not going to lose interest anytime soon. Yes, there are plenty who want her to run for president in 2012. But if she decides not to, they will get over it, although they will not get over her quite so easily. There are many more who will support her in whatever she decides to do, whenever she decides to do it. Count Texas for Sarah Palin among that latter group.

- JP