Friday, October 14, 2011

Did Team Palin uncover an October surprise in September?

We think Gov. Palin and her advisors sensed "a great disturbance" in the political force
There's one thing about Sarah Palin that her supporters, critics and even "neutral" pundits all agree on. Her political instincts are remarkably prescient. She has been praised for this keen instinctive ability to read the political tea leaves throughout her entire career. When Gov. Palin announced on October 5 that she had decided not to run for president, she cited family reasons. What this really means is that it was a family decision, but we were left to speculate on what factors were involved in her family's deliberations.

There's no question that a national campaign would be a major disruption of family life for the Palins, and security issues almost certainly were factored into the decision. But political concerns had to have also been involved in what was ultimately a key decision involving the governor's political career. The words "at this time" from her official statement have been cited by some of her supporters as a clue that Sarah Palin, her family and her close advisors saw some new wrinkle in the political landscape that may have caused her to postpone her run, perhaps until 2016 or 2020.

You do not produce quality campaign ads like "One Nation" and "Together" simply to raise money for your leadership PAC or to build your image for public relations purposes. You don't cancel the southern leg of a bus tour that was to have included the early primary state of South Carolina because of family considerations, either. You don't have your lawyers make calls to early primary states to verify presidential filing deadlines unless you are still seriously considering a run. Likewise, you don't convene a round table with your closest advisors to map out strategy for a presidential run, unconventional as it may have been, if your aim is just to string people along.

No, something happened. We think Gov. Palin and her advisors sensed "a great disturbance" in the political force, probably at some point in September, that caused them to put on the brakes. Could it have been that they concluded that the fix is in for Mitt Romney? Consider Stacy McCain's bombshell Thursday that Cesar Conda, Sen. Marco Rubio's top staffer and a Romney loyalist, was instrumental in the Florida GOP's decision to move their state's primary up to January. The earlier states schedule their primaries, the more it helps Romney and hurts other candidates like Herman Cain. This revelation taken together with the GOP establishment's strategy to co-opt Sarah Palin's allies in the TEA Party, make it difficult to believe that such political factors as these were not involved at least to some degree in her decision not to run.

The primary shuffling will throw up obstacles that will be very difficult, if not insurmountable, not only for conservative candidates such as Cain, but also for any other candidate not named Mitt Romney. This had to have been a key factor in the political calculus of Sarah Palin, but don't doubt that it was a consideration for Chris Christie and Rudy Giuliani as well. Not just political instincts, but good political intel were likely involved in all three of these decisions not to run. Christie's quick endorsement of Romney so soon after he announced that he would not get into the race indicates that not only did the New Jersey governor realize that the fix for Romney was in, but like any political opportunist, he was determined to use it for his own future political gain.

Unlike Christie, Sarah Palin is not for sale and neither are her core supporters. In his follow-up piece for The American Spectator, Stacy attributes the increase in Cain's poll numbers largely to Palin supporters jumping on board the Cain train following the governor's announcement that she would not run. But if you look carefully at the polling data, it's clear that Cain's rise is almost directly proportional to Rick Perry's decline. What Stacy seems to have missed is the fact that Sarah Palin's strongest supporters are in no hurry to jump to any other candidate's ship. Indeed, her own ship is not sinking. It has only lowered its sails "at this time." Make no mistake: when a favorable breeze is felt, the canvas will again be hoisted. No one GOP presidential candidate even comes close to offering the complete package Gov. Palin's supporters still see in her. A few of her fair weather "fans" may go with the flow (or the media's "flavor of the month"), but her serious supporters know that only dead fish do that, as the governor has often said. No, it will take quite a lot for any other candidate to win the allegiance of the Paliniste. So far, we're not seeing it from any one of them.

- JP


  1. Good food for thought. Something is afoot, but what?

  2. Great article, JP.

    I follow your logic and characterization of Palin's thinking and decision up to a point.

    I disagree with your concession to give the GOP the 2012 election.

    If the Bush/Romney/Establishment GOP is not DEFEATED in 2012, why would they be DEFEATED in 2016? or 2020? Ad infinitum.

    Palin said she is not seeking the 2012 GOP nomination for president.

    She also told Mark Levin that it has been assumed that a third party election will give the election to Obama.

    But the difference between Palin and Ross Perot, John Anderson, Ralph Nader, etc., is that they ran as Lone Wolves. They were in essence their party's only candidate.

    Palin already has dozens of tea party folks in office in the House and Senate and governorships. And she declared she's going to work to get more in office in 2012.

    If she does so during the presidential primary season, and has dozens more tea party candidates on their way to winning more House and Senate and gubernatorial seats, then she could jump in the presidential election as a Tea Party candidate - with lots of other Tea Party candidates already in office and on their way to being in office.

    Is 2012 too early to see such a takeover of the Republican party?


    But I'm not conceding it at this point.

    Again, I repeat: If the Crony GOP is not defeated in 2012, how will it be easier to defeated in 2016 and subsequent years?

    So I'm watching closely.

    And researching how to get Palin on the ballot in the General Election in CT if she should take that path.

  3. I've always thought that "something happened" as well. Her demeanor flipped 180* very quickly, which caused me to wonder if it wasn't of a more personal nature -- maybe some kind of a threat against her family.

  4. hrh, where in my article did I "concede" the 20912 election to the GOP? If Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee, I believe it is likely that Obama will win what should be an improbable second term.

    Gov. Palin worded her statement very carefully, saying she wasn't running for the 2012 GOP nomination "at this time." While that MAY mean that she's willing to wait until 2016 or 2020, it may mean something else. Just exactly what, I don't care to speculate on. At least "not at this time," LOL.

    - JP

  5. JP, I agree with your comment - who knows? Should the RNC stalemate...

  6. When you look at the field now, there is a gaping hole. There should be an accomplished Tea Party candidate there but there isn't. Cain comes closest, but he has too many hurdles to overcome. Bachmann was always a lightweight. Perry is a pro-Dream act crony capitalist. Newt is too much inside the beltway. So, we are being stuck with Romney. If Gov. Palin had run, she would have filled that hole and made it a race between the GOP establishment and the Tea Party. But I see no easy way for her to get back in.

    Maybe it was the establishment GOP that stacked the deck in favor of Romney. But Romney may well lose to Obama. In the first debate, Obama would hit Romney on his glass jaw and knock him out. It might go down like this:

    Obama – “I’d like to take a moment to thank Mitt Romney, and his staff of advisors in particular, who I met with, for providing a workable blueprint to the Affordable Care Act (read ObamaCare)…”

    The next punch would be aimed at Romney's career on Wall Street, where he made $250 million. What do you think the Occupy Wall Street demonstrations are about. i'd call it battlefield prep for left's war on Romney.

    (Firs punch borrowed from a comment at Neo-Neocon

  7. Something happened. It may very well have just been a family decision, but this political cynic believes it was something far more than that.

    Be that as it may, at this point there is no way for me to know.

    So I'll be one of the Sarah supporters who will hold off for a while before throwing in with another candidate.

  8. Good article. It appears to me that with not only Romney, but Cain and Perry, the NWO/AspenInstitute/Rockefeller globalists believe they have a phalanx that can block out any other entrant and they are seeking to close the deal.

    Keep in mind that Herman Cain is *very popular* in Florida.

  9. Kitty, to me her demeanor seemed to flip between Indianola and New Hampshire.

  10. I keep hoping that she'll run as 3rd party and the wording says she wouldn't seek the GOP nomination. I'll hold onto my denial as long as I can, the grieving process ya know. I sit here and type this while wearing my Team Sarah shirt.

  11. I agree Josh. Something is up. I'm not sure what or why, but something is up. Unless she's planning a 3rd party run, "at this time" if it means a last minute jump in in 2012 would have to happen in the next 2 weeks.

    One thing for sure, I don't think Palin is thrilled that Romney is the "likely nominee."

  12. Who says she has to get in the race in 2011? I think she'll wait until Romney becomes the inevitable candidate, let that stew and fester with conservatives for a bit, then swoop down and announce, as an independent, in 2012. The buzz this produces will suck the oxygen out of the room and Romney will become irrelevant. She'll do it late enough so the GOP will be stunned into paralysis. By the time they realize what's happening, her campaign will be in full swing and gaining momentum.

  13. I think much darker forces are at work in the country than merely some Republicans trying to rig things to make Romney president, and if anything Palin and her family may have been more aware of these things as they were at the very spear-point of the attack.
    What I am referring to are the threats of violence and assassination, the complete and insane hate being spewed out by the left, the complete lawlessness of the Obama administration, the OWS demonstrations and their agenda, and the recent statements by Jesse Jackson, Jr. and others regarding the need to suspend elections to get their agenda through.
    I will of course support Palin and be one of her biggest fans if and when she decides to run, but I am beginning to wonder if that is an alternate future that could have and should have occurred in a normal world, but which cannot occur with these dark forces at work.
    If this is true, then people who care about democracy need to do much more work educating the American people, in grassroots politics, and seeing good officials get elected at all levels of the government. America also, more than anything else, will need our prayers.

  14. Something is amiss but it's associated with her statements of a "very unconventional campaign for Presidency." If the political atmosphere is showing Romney or any other GOP trailing BO then possibly I can see Sarah running to salvage the Conservative vote; replacing the GOP and building a virulent attack on BO to save America from destruction. Who knows, but if anybody would, it would be Sarah.

  15. Sarah knows darn well that a 3rd party run would give Barry 4 more years, unless he's impeached first (one can only hope). I believe that at conventions the delegates only have to vote the way their states said to once. After that they can vote anyway they want.

  16. Nicole C. at C4P just posted Gov. Palin has changed her status on FB info from 'Republican' to 'Conservative'. Perhaps this coincides with Josh's narrative.

  17. 2012 and the aftermath is GOP's chance to show they've learned that people want better government. If Republicans win and go back to business as usual or if the nominate a lib and lose, then Sarah Palin can legitimately make the case that she worked to change things by supporting TP candidates, etc but that establishment/entrenched DC types were more interested in maintaining the status quo. She is young enough to give the party another chance and then run in 2016.
    Door is still slightly open for 2012 if other contenders fizzle out and it looks like Romney is presumptive nominee. Cain is good on some stuff, but hasn't done foreign affairs homework. Perry is sleep walking through debates. Gingrich is well Gingrich.

  18. Palin said she wouldn't seek the GOP nomination and a 3rd party would guarantee an Obama re-election. She is a woman of her word. I think she has something else in mind, what, I am not sure, perhaps exactly what she has said, she will help to get the most conservative elected. I am still saddened that she isn't running, a huge deficit! But I have to trust God and Sarah.

  19. Good analysis Josh. The GOP seems determined to try to lost another election....or at least push many of us away....possibly for good. I know. Right now there's no alternative - but these morons seem to have missed the fact that we hold them responsible for much of our current mess as well as bho and his cronies on the left.

    In my many discussions with Sarah Palin supporters, I have found it most pleasing that their support is based on facts, on her record of accomplishments, on her ethics and servant's heart, and her willingness to take many bold stands on most every issue, most before others have even stuck their finger in the air.

    Her understanding of our monetary and spending crisis, need for energy independence, and the corruption of our crony capitalism are just the tip of spear of her positions.

    It is for these and many other reasons why I remain in Sarah's camp - well, maybe also because there is NO candidate that comes close to all she has - and all I believe my country needs.

    Thanks Josh. You make a fellow Texan proud.