Stacy McCain: Palin Power Strikes Home

*
Perhaps the most stringent test of the power of a Sarah Palin endorsement will come August 24 in her home state of Alaska. The former governor has endorsed upstart Joe Miller in the GOP primary against Sen. Lisa Murkowski. At American Spectator, Stacy McCain writes that with a campaign chest of more than $2 million and her father Frank Murkowski's clout inside the state Republican Party establishment, the incumbent Senator would appear to be on the inside track to reelection. But Lisa Murkowski faces one major problem on her way to a second full term in the U.S. Senate. That problem is Sarah Palin:

It was Palin, after all, who beat Frank Murkowski in the 2006 Republican gubernatorial primary. And if anyone doubted the sincerity of Palin's "maverick" stance, those doubts ought to have been erased last month when the former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice-presidential candidate endorsed Joe Miller. As is her habit, she made the endorsement via her Facebook page -- which has more than 1.7 million subscribers -- calling Miller "a true Commonsense Constitutional Conservative."

Palin's endorsement had the major immediate benefit of boosting Miller's fundraising. Campaign sources were unwilling to discuss the numbers (Federal Election Commission reports for the quarter that ended June 30 won't be published until July 15), but if past performance is any indicator, Palin's Facebook blessing probably generated more than a hundred thousand dollars in online campaign contributions for Miller in June. That's a drop in the bucket compared to Murkowski's millions, of course, but because Palin's grassroots supporters tend to be small donors -- giving in increments less than $200 -- the Miller campaign can tap into those contributors for additional cash down the road, soliciting an extra $20 or $50 from a list of hundreds of people who've already donated.

The secondary benefit of Palin's endorsement is that it gave Miller the kind of national recognition that every underdog candidate craves. Two weeks later, the Tea Party Express endorsed Miller and credited Palin for calling attention to Murkowski's Republican rival. "Maybe a lot of voters don't know who Joe Miller is and don't feel he can win," a Tea Party Express spokesman told the Associated Press. "We want voters to take a second look."

Miller's challenge also gives GOP voters in the Aug. 24 primary a chance to take a second look at the incumbent's record. Based on her ratings from the American Conservative Union, early last year Human Events ranked Murkowski fifth on its list of "Top 10 Senate RINOs" -- barely more conservative than another notorious "Republican In Name Only," Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter, who switched to the Democrats shortly after the Human Events list was published.

The dreaded "RINO" tag can be the kiss of death in a Republican primary. Murkowski is pro-choice on abortion, while Miller has been praised as "a solid pro-life candidate" by the president of Alaska Right to Life. And Murkowski is particularly vulnerable this year because -- as Miller highlights on his campaign website -- she voted for numerous big-government measures hated by the Tea Party grassroots, including the 2008 Troubled Asset Relief Plan (TARP) bailout and the bailouts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the federally sponsored agencies implicated in the mortgage disaster. While there have been no public polls in the GOP primary, Miller said the Alaska voters he's talked to during the campaign are fed up with the bipartisan deficit-spending spree in Washington.

Miller not only has Gov. Palin's endorsement, but that of national grassroots group Tea Party Express as well. Though Miller is still the underdog in the race, McCain says Sarah Palin's support improves Miller's odds. In 2006, Sarah Palin was the underdog in Alaska's GOP gubernatorial primary, but she soundly defeated Frank Murkowski because voters were weary of corrupt politicians and were ready for a change. Now four years later, voters appear to be in the same mood. We will know just how ready they are for more change when the primary ballots are counted in late August.

Read Stacy McCain's opinion piece unabridged here.

- JP