Sunday, July 25, 2010

Economist's YouGov poll and Palin running mate speculation

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From Merv Benson at Prairie Pundit, a look at the results of a recent Economist/YouGov poll:
"It is the best poll I have seen for Sarah Palin. She still must convince some voters she has the ability to perform as President. The good news for her is that Obama has set that bar pretty low so far."


Here are some of the other gems in this poll:
• Among those who identify with the tea-party movement, 26% support Mrs Palin, 19% choose Mr Romney, 16% go for Mr Gingrich and 15% for Mr Huckabee.

• Over three-quarters (77%) of Republicans have a favourable view of Mrs Palin (17% unfavourable). But 51% of the overall public gives her an unfavorable rating.

• Barack Obama’s struggles continue. In this week’s poll his approval rating is at 45%, with 48% disapproving. Just 34% approve of the way he is handling the economy — his lowest rating ever on the public’s most important issue — and even fewer, 31%, approve of how he is handling the budget deficit. Most Americans see no impact of last year’s economic stimulus package — just 29% think it has helped the economy. Only 13% say the package has created jobs; 55% say it never will.
While Benson favors the idea of a Palin-Romney ticket because it might have broad appeal, we're not so sure. Many conservatives don't trust the former Massachusetts governor, and the big advantage the GOP has over the ruling Democrats is that the current mood of the nation stems, in part, from a lack of trust in government. A Pew Research Center poll finds trust in government and all of its institutions at near-historic lows. And a plurality of the American public is still opposed to ObamaCare, especially the likely voters among them, according to an aggregation of survey data by Pollster.com. Gov. Romney will forever be linked to RomneyCare, and that is an albatross the 2012 GOP ticket does not need to be burdened with.

If Gov. Palin decides to run in 2012, she will need a running mate who brings balance, not baggage, to her ticket. The pretty much rules out Romney, Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich as well. Her ideal ticketmate will be a "papa grizzly" (for obvious reasons) who hails from the deep south or the southeast (she's from the northwest); will be Catholic (she's protestant); will have legislative experience (hers is administrative); will have an Ivy League degree; (she has been unfairly criticized for her journalism degree from the University of Idaho); will have specialized knowledge and experience related to an issue of national interest (hers is in energy) and will have private sector large business experience (she has small business experience).

In light of the above, consider that Governor Bobby Jindal is happily married with three children; was born and lives in Louisiana; has been a Roman Catholic since his freshman year of college; served in the U.S. House representing Louisiana's 1st Congressional District; graduated with honors in both Public Policy and Biology from Yale and earned an advanced degree from Oxford in Political Science with an emphasis in Health Policy; served as Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals and was president of the University of Louisiana System (health care and education are key issues); and worked as a consultant for McKinsey & Co.

Above and beyond balance, Jindal also brings executive experience and a record as a proven problem-solver to a potential Palin presidential ticket. As Secretary of Louisiana's DHH, he turned around a broken health care system, taking the state's Medicaid program from bankruptcy (with a $400 million deficit) into three years of surpluses (totaling $220 million). Jindal received praise from members of both major political parties for his leadership during Hurricane Gustav, ordering an evacuation which has been credited for saving many lives. As an American of Punjab Indian heritage, he would bring ethnic balance -- not a requirement but definitely a plus -- to the ticket. His leadership during the Gulf Oil Crisis has boosted his popularity in Louisiana, as a Rasmussen Reports poll taken at the end of June shows -- his approval rating in his state is at 74 percent, up from 64 percent in April.

True, there's not much ideological balance to a Palin-Jindal presidential pairing, as both are Reagan conservatives. But we don't think ideological balance will be an imperative for voters in 2012. They are not happy with governance from the left in the current Democrat administration, nor were they enamored of Republican moderate governance in the post-Reagan era. We think the country is ready for a return of Reagan conservatism with leadership provided by Governors Sarah Palin and Bobby Jindal. He's not exactly Mr. Excitement, but the Democrats would look silly attacking his gravitas, and she has enough charisma for the both of them.

- JP

11 comments:

  1. I like Jindal's resume, but he comes across as a beta. He needs to stand taller, and portray an image of leadership, courage, and manliness.

    He needs to go to the John Wayne school of manhood so he can convince us he is more than staff, but line.

    Once he succeeds there, he will be POTUS some day.

    I think a better choice if he wins his election to the House might be Col. Alan West, a man's man of character, courage, integrity, and honor who respects the Constitution.

    However, either of these choices combined with Sarah at the top of the ticket will defeat Obama in 2012.

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  2. Conventional wisdom says this would be good, but Sarah is anything but conventional. Palin/Brewer 2012.

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  3. Respect your POV Sapwolf, but have to disagree. Jindal is anything but a beta. He manned up, admitted he was wrong on the legislative pay raise and vetoed it. Next to Gov. Palin, no one in the GOP has been more openly critical of the Obama administration. He has opposed Obama on the the Gulf cleanup, deepwater drilling and the stimulus, just to name a few. Like Gov. Palin, he vetoed a portion of his state's share of the stimulus, and he has vetoed his legislature's $26 Billion budget bill. Liberals hate him, not as much as they hate Sarah Palin, but they hate him with a passion.

    Leadership? He has show plenty of it. Not just on Hurricane Gustav and on the Gulf Spill, but fixing his state's Medicare mess. Unlike Obama, Jindal has an actual plan to rebuild the Louisiana coast and get people whose lives depend on the Gulf of Mexico working again.

    Col. West is an outstanding candidate, but he hasn't even been elected to the House yet. If he wins, he will have only one 2-year term under his belt in 2012. Despite his outstanding military record, Dems would scream "Thin resume!" if Gov. Palin chose him for her running mate. They would smear him as a "torturer." He really isn't, but when has truth mattered to Dems?

    No, I have all the respect and admiration in the world for Col. West, but it's much too early in his political career for touting him as a VP prospect. When it comes to governing, Jindal would match the West's two-year legislative term, and trump him on health care, education and winning elections.

    West's military experience counts, but Jindal's been a legislator, health system administrator, a higher education administrator and governor of a key energy-producing state. That covers three of the most important issues to American voters.

    - JP

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  4. Kevin the country is ready for a woman president, but not for two women on the same presidential ticket. Sure, it's an unconventional idea, but you have to give those swing voters (they are the ones who decide elections) who may be on the fence about Gov. Palin good reason to vote for her. Bobby Jindal does that. Gov. Brewer doesn't.

    - JP

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  5. Josh - a couple of points. First, YouGov internet polling did very well in the recent UK elections. It accurately predicted a 7 point win by the Conservatives over Labour. The only other poll more accurate was IPSOS. Where YouGov fell down was in over-estimating the Lib Dem support - more so than most other pollsters. The Lib Dems are disproportionately supported by young, urban, affluent liberals - who are disproportionate represented on the internet. So this might explain the bias.

    As for VP picks, I agree with your criteria, however I do not think Jindal would be picked. The ticket would be too young and idealogical. My bet is that Hailey Barbour will be picked. He meets most of your criteria but he would be the bridge to the establishment Sarah needs. And he could raise a boatload of money for the ticket, which they will need to beat Obama. Also, Sarah needs her VP to be an attack dog. Once she gets the nomination she needs to be like Reagan and concentrate on talking about her vision for America. The VP needs to attack Obama. Jindal is not very good at this. The best attack dog would be Gingrich, but his image is to harsh and he is too idealogical. Barbour is great at sticking the knife into his opponent while smiling. He has no hard edges to him and is very likeable and will help to soften Sarah's harder edges. He also does great in interviews and debates. He would kill Biden or Hillary in a debate, and outshine them with his southern charm and down home appeal. He is very knowledgable on policy, would be loyal, and is not gaffe prone. He knows he has no chance of winning the nomination, but is running to show how likeable he is in order to put himself into a VP position.

    Finally, I don't know if you have blogged this yet, but apparently the paperback version of Going Rogue is being released on Tuesday, August 24, 2010 (not to be confused with the large print soft cover version released last November). This site has a picture of the new cover for the paperback with a list price of $15.99

    http://milo.com/going-rogue-paperback

    From the cover it appears Sarah will be adding new material to this version.

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  6. Where Jindal would be helpful is with the Catholic vote.

    The Catholic Church in America is got some bad rot within.

    We need the Catholics to vote majority for GOP.

    If that happens, we get the Congress and the Presidency.

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  7. I'm still not sure Palin is running, but what the heck... Let's see... A Palin/Jindal ticket would have very little foreign policy/nat'l security experience. That's the "balance" she'll need, IMO. I also think Palin would pick someone with a strong military background just because she respects that.

    Duncan Hunter. Tanned, rested and ready.

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  8. Rusty, the only problem with Barbour is that the Dems would demonize him for his lobbying career. His firm's #1 client - the tobacco industry. That just makes it too easy for them. Shame, too. I like Gov. Barbour.

    - JP

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  9. Hunter is a great conservative, but when he ran for the GOP presidential nomination in '08, he couldn't get more than 1% of the vote in any primary. Gov. Palin will need a proven vote getter on the ticket, one who can attract voters beyond the congressional district level.

    Imagine the Democrats' talking points against a Palin-Hunter ticket. With the help of the media, they have already given the public the impression that Gov. Palin is some kind of extreme right wing nut case, which is far from the truth. Hunter on the ticket would only allow them to double down on that meme, even though it would be an unfair one.

    Again, to win national elections, you have to attract swing voters, and Hunter, though he has great appeal to conservatives, doesn't do that.

    Of course, Jindal may not want the VP job, in which case everything goes out the window. But this is all just idle speculation anyway.

    - JP

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  10. Golly, Rusty, I didn't realize Sarah had ANY "harder edges"! She has yet to say or do anything with which I disagree. That likely explains why I don't perceive any "harder edges"...in my book, she doesn't need ANYBODY to soften her in any way. She's just right the way she is.

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  11. Palin-Bachmann 2012! The strongest, most common sense conservative ticket in America's history. After 234 years of us men and look where we are. It's time for the Mamma Grizzlies to straighten things out. Palin-Bachmann are the one's to do it in 2012.

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