Battle of the heavyweight endorsers

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Political consultant Mark McKinnon observes that disgraced former president Bill Clinton now has higher favorables than the current occupant of the White House. The Comeback Kid is enjoying a 51 percent approval rating, while Obama is under water at 45.6 percent. As a consequence, the value of an Obama endorsement is not what it used to be:

Ironically, in a poll recently released by Public Policy Polling, 48 percent of likely voters say support from President Barack Obama would make them less likely to vote for a candidate. A sea change, indeed.

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Despite a lot of footwork, Obama couldn't help Sen. Arlen Specter (PA), the fourth Democrat in seven months to lose a high-profile race. His endorsement didn't help Gov. Jon Corzine (NJ), state Sen. Creigh Deeds (VA) or Attorney General Martha Coakley (MA). And though Obama backed Rep. Critz in the elimination bout for the late Sen. John Murtha’s seat, Critz opposed Obama's health care plan and even skipped the president’s visit to Pennsylvania a few weeks back.

Politics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, and Clinton may be ready and willing to assume the mantle of Democrat endorser-in-chief. So far, he's only endorsed candidates who backed his wife for the presidential nomination in 2008. He helped Blanche Lincoln win in Arkansas, and he raised more than a few eyebrows Tuesday by endorsing Andrew Romanoff in the Colorado primary race for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Michael Bennet, who has Obama’s blessing. Will more endorsements be coming from the Democrat who, in January of 1996, proclaimed "The era of Big Government is over?" Obama and those who voted for him didn't seem to get that message in 2008, but all indications are that it has hit home today.

McKinnon says Democrat candidates, especially those running in swing districts, are not likely to be all that eager for Obama to come stump for them this fall. But they might just welcome a certain former president's nod and his help on the local campaign trail, while their Republican opponents will be seeking an endorsement from the world's most famous hockey mom:

Bill Clinton will likely be in huge demand, as will Sarah Palin, his Republican counterpart, who has become a heavyweight endorser as well.

For someone who no longer holds elective office and has been summarily dismissed by the press, Palin has an impressive endorsement record this primary season; she’s 9-3 so far. Among her best picks: state Rep. Nikki Haley (SC) and Carly Fiorina (CA).

An interesting title match in the fall elections: Who will have more impact as the party surrogate? Sarah Palin or Bill Clinton? Texas may be one of the races to watch with the Clinton-endorsed former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) challenging Palin’s pick, incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R).

While we're not big gamblers, we like the odds of a Palin endorsement over one from Bill Clinton in the Lone Star State. Texas is Sarah Palin country. Rehabilitated or not, Bubba is not that popular here, as many people still remember what went down in Waco.

A Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters taken in March had Perry leading White by 6 points, 49 percent to 43 percent. In May, the same pollster found Perry ahead by 51 to 38. A June Rasmussen survey showed Perry ahead by 8 points, 48 to 30. We would be genuinely surprised to see White narrow the gap to under 5 points. We've been wrong before, but we just don't see it happening, no matter what the spinmeisters say.

- JP