Friday, May 21, 2010

Neil Stevens: The power of one endorsement

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Neil Stevens at Unlikely Voter reminds us that endorsements are commonplace in politics, but they rarely make much of a difference in key statewide or national elections. However, in the race for the South Carolina GOP gubernatorial primary, one endorsement seems to have shaken up the race:
In previous Rasmussen Reports polling, back in March, Henry McMaster led a multi-way race with 21 to Andre Bauer’s 17, Gresham Barrett’s 17, and Nikki Haley was back in fourth with 14.

Now, after Sarah Palin made a personal appearance to endorse Nikki Haley, It’s all different. Haley leads at 30, and nobody else reaches 20. McMaster 19, Barrett 17, and Bauer 12 finish the new ordering of the top four.
Haly's 30 points should be more guarantee her a spot in a run-off, Neil reasons, but wonders if she can increase her support to majority proportions and avoid the run-off. In a four way race, it won't be easily done, he says, but at this point it has to be the Haley campaign's target.

Meanwhile, news of Nikki Haley's big bounce in the poll numbers has reached India, where the Hindustan Times reports:
Days after being endorsed by Sarah Palin, Indian-American Nikki Haley surged ahead in polls for the Republican primary for the post of Governor of the US State of South Carolina.

Haley, a poll on Thursday showed, had grabbed a double digit lead over her closest Republican rival while previous polls had shown her fourth in the field.

[...]

What changed was the ringing endorsement by Sarah Palin, who was John McCain (sic) running mate for the 2008 US Presidential elections and has since emerged as an iconic figure among American conservatives.

During her endorsement speech last week, Palin described Haley as a “kindred spirit”.
- JP

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