At Hot Air, Ed Morrissey comments on the "Reconsider" movement's plan to air a draft-Palin ad in Iowa next week:
Isn’t it too late to get in the race? Not in Iowa, or in other caucus states like Nevada. The state parties run those events, and they can add a name to the ballot at any time — or caucus-goers can write in their favored candidates if they like.Don't dismiss Morrissey's opinion solely because he writes for Hot Air. I've been following this blogger since his incarnation as "Captain Ed" at Captain's Quarters, which was one of the best conservative blogs around in its day. Unlike his fellow HA contributors Allahpundit and Tina Korbe, Ed has always treated Gov. Palin fairly and with respect in his writings. One can disagree with his opinion without writing him off as anti-Palin or a Palin-hater. He is neither.
However, Palin faces a bigger problem outside of Iowa. Most of the early contests are not caucuses, but primaries — and those states do have filing deadlines, which have all passed. Palin wouldn’t have contended in New Hampshire anyway, but can any candidate fail to win South Carolina, Florida, and Michigan and still expect to seriously contend for the nomination? Filing deadlines for all of these states have already passed.
Besides, Palin didn’t have an organization built in Iowa or anywhere else when she demurred on a run in the first place, and she certainly doesn’t have any now. She would have to find donors to fund those organizations, including some who shifted their money after it became clear that Palin wasn’t serious about running in this cycle. Palin might find it very difficult to get those donors to take her bid seriously, even if she managed a win in Iowa, given the difficulty of running from behind after those early primaries.
A late Palin entry would probably benefit Mitt Romney most. The buzz of her entry might very well hand her Iowa, which would kneecap Romney’s competitors heading into South Carolina and Florida, where she couldn’t compete. If Romney swept through South Carolina, Michigan, and Florida (and perhaps the Nevada caucus as well), he’d be well on his way to inevitability. Palin’s smart enough to know all of this, so despite the heartfelt efforts of C4P, her next announcement will almost certainly be an endorsement and not a declaration of candidacy.
When I started Texans for Sarah Palin, I stated that the mission of this blog was to support Gov. Palin, no matter what she decided to do in the public arena. That has not changed, and it is the reason why I support her decision not to run for president. Yes, it was profoundly disappointing and difficult to accept, but accept it I did. I could do nothing else and remain true to that mission statement. When you say you're going to support someone's decisions, you support them -- even if they aren't decided the way you would have wanted.