Whittington: Encouraging Poll Results for Palin in Swing States

All she needs is the will to take the fight to the president and take away his title.
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The media has for months been insisting the Sarah Palin is not electable, citing their own heavily massaged poll numbers, while ignoring more reliable surveys which show her favorability ratings are on the rise. As Mark Whittington points out, Gov. Palin is tied statistically with President Barack Obama in several swing states that Obama absolutely must win in 2012 to avoid becoming a one-term president:

The numbers are as follows, according to Poll Insider.

Nevada -- Obama: 46.5 percent, Palin: 43 percent
Ohio -- Obama: 46 percent, Palin: 43.5 percent
North Carolina -- Obama: 47.5 percent, Palin:43.5 percent
Missouri -- Obama: 45 percent, Palin: 44 percent
Pennsylvania -- Obama: 46 percent, Palin: 42 percent

There are several takeaways from this news.

First, the president, even though he leads Palin in each of the statewide contests, does not crack the 50 percent threshold. This is considered very dangerous for an incumbent and an opportunity for a challenger.

Next, the numbers are remarkable because the PPP organization tends to oversample Democrats. A correct sampling of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents would almost certainly place Palin in a better position, perhaps even ahead in certain statewide contests.

Finally, considering the media campaign against Palin and the fact that she has not even announced her candidacy, not to speak of campaigned, the numbers should prove encouraging to the lady from Wasilla and disquieting to the president. It has been a truism for this political cycle, even to the extent of being received wisdom, that Palin cannot win the 2012 election under any circumstances. These numbers would seem to place that judgment in doubt.

[More]

Whittington reminds his readers that national poll numbers are far less important than statewide polling results because the successful presidential candidate will be the one who wins the majority of those states with the most electoral votes.

Although Obama's campaign says publicly that it would like nothing better to run against Sarah Palin in the general election Whittington recalls that Jimmy Carter thought the same thing about Ronald Reagan before the peanut farmer got buried in a 489 to 49 electoral vote landslide in 1980. With the media's email Palinoscopy having blown up their faces and a compelling feature-length documentary film scheduled to premiere in theaters across the country in about a month, the governor has the opportunity to correct the media-fabricated public image of her. She in sync with most Americans on her policy positions, and her record of accomplishment as Alaska's CEO is at long last about to get the attention it deserves. She says she has the fire in the belly for a presidential fight. Now is the time to step into the ring for the preliminary bouts which much be fought to get her shot at taking away Obama's title.

- JP

Mark Whittington: How Sarah Palin Can Win Despite Polls, Pundits

"Far worse poll numbers than Palin's have been turned around by a good campaign"
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Never mind the poll analyses from the right and the left. They miss the mark for a possible Palin presidential run, opines Mark Whittington. Dismissing Joshua Green's contention in The Atlantic that Palin's problem is that she leans too far to the right as "just silly" (because many conservatives are successful in American politics) and Jim Geraghty's claim that Palin fatigue is setting in across the country because it fails to take into account the viciousness of the media campaign against her, Whittington argues that despite the pundits and polls, Sarah Palin can win:

But the poll numbers are what they are. Palin suffers from a large number of people who think her ill and who declare that they will never vote for her for president under any circumstances. Fortunately there is a cure if Palin has the will to take it.

The cure is called a campaign. Far worse poll numbers than Palin's have been turned around by a good campaign with public speeches, good advertising, and solid debate performances. One could predict that if she decided to run, a lot of people would find themselves reevaluating their negative judgment of Palin and wondering who this woman is and why she doesn't resemble the Sarah Palin described by the media.

Of course, presidential campaigns are really comparisons between two or more candidates. Palin does not have to metaphorically walk on water. She just has to be better, first than the other Republicans, then than Barack Obama. She has it within her to do both if she wants to.

[More]

This makes two good positive Palin articles in two days from Mark Whittington. We blogged about his Monday op-ed here.

- JP

Quote of the Day (January 1, 2011)

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David Shedlock at Caffeinated Thoughts:

"A recent Clarus poll was apparently designed to promote the candidacies of moderate Mitt Romney and liberal Michael Bloomberg, and diss Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin. Just below, has to be one of the worst polling questions in the history of presidential politics:

'If you had to pick between the two––would you prefer the next Republican presidential candidate be a moderate conservative who has a good chance of beating Barack Obama …or… someone who is an outspoken conservative who has only a fair chance of beating Barack Obama?'

The question pairs ideas in a manner deliberately created to push one kind of candidate over another. Notice that the moderate candidate is presented as having a good chance to beat Obama while the conservative is only given a fair chance... Polls like these are not only unscientific, they are downright deceitful."

- JP

PPP: Gov. Palin leads in Texas, Wisconsin, West Virginia and Maine (Updated)

And a close second in Florida and Minnesota
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The latest batch of GOP presidential primary polls conducted just prior to the midterm elections by Democrat research firm Public Policy Polling finds Mitt Romney ahead in Florida, Tim Pawlenty "surprisingly weak in his home state" of Minnesota, and Sarah Palin leading in Texas, Wisconsin, West Virginia, and... Maine? Yes, Maine! More from PPP's Tom Jensen:

The most important state to the nomination process on this list is Florida and there Romney's ahead with 28% to 22% for Palin and 15% for Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee. It should be noted that although Romney does have the lead, it's a much less lofty one than what he posted in a March PPP poll of the state when he had 44%. The only other candidates included in that poll were Palin and Huckabee and we're finding more and more as we do these polls that when new folks are added into the mix it tends to hurt Romney more than anyone else. His support is less solid than Palin's and Huckabee's so even though he looks like a very nominal front runner at this point, he's also the candidate most likely to see his support collapse as things heat up.

Tim Pawlenty leads the field in his home state of Minnesota but his performance is surprisingly weak. He gets 19% with Palin right on his heels at 18%, Huckabee at 14%, and Gingrich and Romney each getting 11%. These numbers are reflective of the overall trouble we found for Pawlenty at home in our final preelection poll of the state- his approval rating was under water and voters overwhelmingly said they didn't think he should run for President. Partially because of Pawlenty's declining popularity Democrats seem to have picked up the Governor's office there in an otherwise awful year for the party. Palin actually leads Pawlenty 20-18 with conservatives but the Governor leads overall thanks to a 27-10 advantage with moderates. It is no coincidence that Romney is in the basement in this state- we've found several places now that where Pawlenty is unusually strong the victim seems to be Romney because of a greater split in the vote among GOP centrists.

Palin holds small leads in the remaining states. Most noteworthy is her strength in Texas and West Virginia, which suggests a bid from her could really hurt Mike Huckabee in the South. In Texas she gets 22% to 20% for Huckabee and 15% for both Gingrich and Romney. In West Virginia she's at 25% to 22% for Huckabee and again 15% for both Gingrich and Romney. These margins are obviously very close but they nevertheless pose trouble for Huckabee and perhaps even more so Gingrich if she ends up making a bad because strength in the South would be vital to either of their prospects.

Romney may not have a complete strangle hold on New England- Palin gets 23% in Maine to 18% for Romney, 16% for Huckabee, and 14% for Gingrich. Those numbers should give folks who think there's no chance Maine Republicans would nominate someone far right against Olympia Snowe in 2012 second thoughts. And finally Palin gets 18% in Wisconsin to 15% for Huckabee, 14% for Gingrich, and 12% for Romney. Pawlenty has his best non-Minnesota performance so far at 8%, not surprising given that it's right next door. And Pawlenty's unusually strong Wisconsin number helps to explain Romney's unusually weak Wisconsin number.

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We find it significant that in many of the states where others are leading, Gov. Palin is running a strong second, for example in Minnesota (where Pawlenty's lead over her is within the margin of error) and Florida (where the Romney lead is right at the MOE). In Rep. Michelle Bachmann and Senator-elect Marco Rubio, she has powerful conservative friends in both states.

PPP is serious about polling the primaries. They have released polls in 12 states, with Romney leading in 5 (California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, New Hampshire), Gov. Palin in 4 (Maine, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin), Huckabee in 2 (Illinois, Pennsylvania), and Pawlenty in 1 (Minnesota.) Jensen promises that his company will have results from a final batch of six polls -- including Alaska, Kentucky, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Washington -- out early next week.

Full results are available here as a PDF document.

h/t: Hot Air

Update: Susequent PPP polling (PDF) shows Gov. Palin also leading in Ohio and Washington State. She second to Huckabee in Kentucky and tied for second behind Gingrich in North Carolina.

- JP

Poll Watch: October 21, 2010 (Updated)

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With less than two weeks to go until election day, here are some new poll numbers of interest in races where Gov. Palin has made endorsements and/or SarahPAC has contributed:

A Mason-Dixon Poll in Kentucky shows Rand Paul (R) with a 5-point lead over Jack Conway (D) in that state's U.S. Senate race.

A survey conducted for Sunshine State News reveals that conservative Republican Allen West leads incumbent Ron Klein, a Democrat, by three points in the contest for the 22nd Congressional District in Florida.

In Pennsylvania, the GOP's Pat Toomey is up by a 2-point margin over Democrat Joe Sestak, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.

A RealClearPolitics average of the five most recent polls taken in the Ohio gubernatorial contest indicates that John Kasich (R) has a 5.4-point lead over Ted Strickland (D).

The latest polling results from Missouri by Rasmussen Results have Roy Blunt (R) leading Robin Carnahan (D) by 9 points in that contest for the U.S. Senate.

Rasmussen's polling in the Nevada U.S. Senate battle indicate Republican Sharron Angle is ahead of Democrat majority leader Harry Reid by 3 points.

Update: Rasmussen has just released results of a new poll from North Dakota which shows that Rick Berg (R) has extended his lead over sitting Congressman Earl Pomeroy (D) to 10 points in the fight for that state's At Large seat in the U.S. House.

- JP

A few grains of salt to take with that WSJ/NBC Poll

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We're talking about the poll that the lamestream media is hyping today as supposedly showing Democrats getting more excited about the midterm elections. You know, the one which allegedly shows that Bill Clinton is the most popular politician in the country and purports that Sarah Palin has lower approval ratings than Harry Reid? Yes, that one. Well, the devil is in the internals, as we always like to say when we're talking about polls. So here are a few grains of salt that need to be taken with this poll:

FACTUALS: Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only.

QP1a Now, many people we've talked with tonight were unable to vote in primary elections this year, how about you, did you vote in a 2010 primary election in your state? (IF "YES," THEN ASK:) And, did you vote in the
Democratic or Republican Party Primary?+
Yes, voted in a Republican Party Primary ............... 28
Yes, voted in a Democratic Party Primary................ 33
Yes, voted in an Open Primary (VOL) .................. 4
No, did not vote in any primaries ............................. 34
Not sure .............................................................. 1
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

F1b/c. A lot of people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in last November’s election for president? (IF "YES," ASK:) For whom did you vote -- Barack Obama, John McCain, or someone else?
Yes, Voted 82
Voted for Barack Obama................ 41
Voted for John McCain................... 31
Voted for someone else ................. 5
Not sure ........................................ 5
No, Did Not Vote ............................ 18
Not sure ...................................... -

[...]

QF4 Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as (ROTATE:) a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.") (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.")
Strong Democrat ........................... 20
Not very strong Democrat .............. 15
Independent/lean Democrat........... 8
Strictly Independent ....................... 13
Independent/lean Republican......... 11
Not very strong Republican............ 12
Strong Republican......................... 14
Other (VOL) .................................. 5
Not sure ...................................... 2

[...]

QF9 Do you have any children in pre-school, kindergarten to fifth grade, middle school, or high school currently living in your household? (IF YES, SPECIFY)(ACCEPT ALL THAT APPLY)
Total Yes, PreK-12th Grade 32
Yes, Pre-school...................................................... 10
Yes, K-5th grade ..................................................... 13
Yes, Middle School................................................. 9
Yes, High school .................................................... 10
Yes, have kids at home out of high school (VOL) .. 3
No, no kids ........................................................... 61
Not sure ............................................................... 4

Okay, let's get this straight... The sample surveyed for this poll was not limited to likely voters or even registered voters. The poll oversampled Democrat primary voters over Republican primary voters by 5 points and strong Democrats over strong Republicans by 6 points. It sampled Obama voters over McCain voters by 10 points (even though Obama's actual margin of victory over McCain was 7 points in the 2008 election). And a whopping 61 percent of the people surveyed don't have any children? Where was this poll conducted, in a singles apartment building in Manhattan?

"Curiouser and curiouser," said Alice...

- JP

Economist's YouGov poll and Palin running mate speculation

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From Merv Benson at Prairie Pundit, a look at the results of a recent Economist/YouGov poll:

"It is the best poll I have seen for Sarah Palin. She still must convince some voters she has the ability to perform as President. The good news for her is that Obama has set that bar pretty low so far."

Here are some of the other gems in this poll:

• Among those who identify with the tea-party movement, 26% support Mrs Palin, 19% choose Mr Romney, 16% go for Mr Gingrich and 15% for Mr Huckabee.

• Over three-quarters (77%) of Republicans have a favourable view of Mrs Palin (17% unfavourable). But 51% of the overall public gives her an unfavorable rating.

• Barack Obama’s struggles continue. In this week’s poll his approval rating is at 45%, with 48% disapproving. Just 34% approve of the way he is handling the economy — his lowest rating ever on the public’s most important issue — and even fewer, 31%, approve of how he is handling the budget deficit. Most Americans see no impact of last year’s economic stimulus package — just 29% think it has helped the economy. Only 13% say the package has created jobs; 55% say it never will.

While Benson favors the idea of a Palin-Romney ticket because it might have broad appeal, we're not so sure. Many conservatives don't trust the former Massachusetts governor, and the big advantage the GOP has over the ruling Democrats is that the current mood of the nation stems, in part, from a lack of trust in government. A Pew Research Center poll finds trust in government and all of its institutions at near-historic lows. And a plurality of the American public is still opposed to ObamaCare, especially the likely voters among them, according to an aggregation of survey data by Pollster.com. Gov. Romney will forever be linked to RomneyCare, and that is an albatross the 2012 GOP ticket does not need to be burdened with.

If Gov. Palin decides to run in 2012, she will need a running mate who brings balance, not baggage, to her ticket. The pretty much rules out Romney, Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich as well. Her ideal ticketmate will be a "papa grizzly" (for obvious reasons) who hails from the deep south or the southeast (she's from the northwest); will be Catholic (she's protestant); will have legislative experience (hers is administrative); will have an Ivy League degree; (she has been unfairly criticized for her journalism degree from the University of Idaho); will have specialized knowledge and experience related to an issue of national interest (hers is in energy) and will have private sector large business experience (she has small business experience).

In light of the above, consider that Governor Bobby Jindal is happily married with three children; was born and lives in Louisiana; has been a Roman Catholic since his freshman year of college; served in the U.S. House representing Louisiana's 1st Congressional District; graduated with honors in both Public Policy and Biology from Yale and earned an advanced degree from Oxford in Political Science with an emphasis in Health Policy; served as Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals and was president of the University of Louisiana System (health care and education are key issues); and worked as a consultant for McKinsey & Co.

Above and beyond balance, Jindal also brings executive experience and a record as a proven problem-solver to a potential Palin presidential ticket. As Secretary of Louisiana's DHH, he turned around a broken health care system, taking the state's Medicaid program from bankruptcy (with a $400 million deficit) into three years of surpluses (totaling $220 million). Jindal received praise from members of both major political parties for his leadership during Hurricane Gustav, ordering an evacuation which has been credited for saving many lives. As an American of Punjab Indian heritage, he would bring ethnic balance -- not a requirement but definitely a plus -- to the ticket. His leadership during the Gulf Oil Crisis has boosted his popularity in Louisiana, as a Rasmussen Reports poll taken at the end of June shows -- his approval rating in his state is at 74 percent, up from 64 percent in April.

True, there's not much ideological balance to a Palin-Jindal presidential pairing, as both are Reagan conservatives. But we don't think ideological balance will be an imperative for voters in 2012. They are not happy with governance from the left in the current Democrat administration, nor were they enamored of Republican moderate governance in the post-Reagan era. We think the country is ready for a return of Reagan conservatism with leadership provided by Governors Sarah Palin and Bobby Jindal. He's not exactly Mr. Excitement, but the Democrats would look silly attacking his gravitas, and she has enough charisma for the both of them.

- JP

Quote of the Day (July 17, 2010)

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Brad Knickerbocker:

"Gallup... released its latest on likely presidential candidates’ popularity within the GOP. Not surprisingly, Sarah Palin leads all the guys with presidential aspirations... Palin’s at 76 percent 'favorable' among Republicans – at least 10 percentage points higher than any of the guys. It’s easy to see why. Although all of them except Jindal have political action committees trolling for dollars, SarahPAC already has a million-dollar war chest with which she’s able to support other Republicans and thereby gain party influence... Her 'mama grizzlies' line resonates with Republican and many independent women. Her message and rhetorical tone is very much in line with the 'tea party' movement. Her best-seller Going Rogue: An American Life has sold more than 2 million copies, and a biography aimed at young readers is due out this fall."

- JP

PPP poll confirms SUSA survey: Carly has a big lead

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Hot on the heels of the SurveyUSA (SUSA) poll released yesterday which shows that Carly Fiorina has taken the lead the the California GOP primary race for the U.S. Senate, comes a Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey indicating that the Fiorina lead is even wider than shown in the SUSA poll:

In the Senate race for the right to challenge incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer, Fiorina pulls 41% to Tom Campbell’s 21% and Chuck DeVore’s 16%, with 4% pledging support to minor candidates and 18% undecided. Campbell actually leads Fiorina 32-30 among the 28% moderate minority, but Fiorina leads 47-15 among the 69% conservative majority, with DeVore at 19%.

PPP's sample of 417 likely California Republican primary voters was conducted May 21 - May 23 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent. Fiorina was endorsed by Sarah Palin May 6.

- JP

Jack Kelly: Palin up, Obama down

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Jack Kelly, columnist for both the Toledo Blade and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, remarks on the recent convergence in poll numbers for President Obama and former Governor Sarah Palin:

The turnabout in fortunes is all the more remarkable because no political figure in recent history has been subject to such vilification from our news media as Mrs. Palin. No malicious rumor was too preposterous to report. No accomplishment was important enough to mention.

Meanwhile, no presidential candidate or president has received more favorable press coverage than Mr. Obama.

[...]

That's changing, in both directions.

Kelly cites as evidence positive comments following Sarah Palin's Gridiron Club speech by journalist Dan Thomasson and liberal columnist Clarence Page. He also quotes from a suprisingly favorable review of Going Rogue written by Stanley Fish for the New York Times:

"Perseverance, the ability to absorb defeat without falling into defeatism, is the key to Palin's character," he wrote. "Her political opponents, especially those who dismissed Ronald Reagan before he was elected, should take note."

Read Jack Kelly's column in its entirety here.

- JP

When Polls Collide

Andrew Malcolm, the dean of political bloggers, at Top of the Ticket:

Obama's new Gallup Poll job approval number is 47%. Last month it was 53%.

Regular Ticket readers will recall how in this space in late November we pointed out that Obama's closely watched job approval slide was coinciding with Palin's little-noticed rise in favorability. And it appeared they might cross somewhere in the 40s.

Well, ex-Sen. Obama, meet ex-Gov. Palin.

The new CNN/Opinion Research Poll shows Palin now at 46% favorable, just one point below her fellow basketball fan.

[...]

Palin critics -- and, by golly, there still are some, believe it or not -- say that she's a polarizing political figure.

And they're dead-on correct: 46% like her (including eight of 10 Republicans), 46% don't (including seven of 10 Democrats) and only 8% are undecided (no doubt including many who've been living underground since John McCain unveiled his VP GOP running mate in Dayton, Ohio, some 15 months ago).

But here's the fascinating, little-noticed catch:

The very same polarization now holds true for Obama, the fresh fellow from the old Chicago Democratic machine who was supposed to bring hope and change to a nation tired of divisive politics and the harsh partisan tone of Washington.

Fully 83% of Democrats approve of him, but only 14% of Republicans do.

Among independents, who provided the crucial winning boost for the Democratic ticket in November 2008, Obama's support has melted to 42% today, in large part over immense spending and deficit concerns.

In a poll conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp. in mid-November, Sarah Palin's favorable rating among independent voters, was at 49 percent, seven points higher than the president's numbers are now with the same demographic. Palin was even viewed more favorably by Democrats (20 percent) than Obama is by Republicans (14 percent). 

Numbers from surveys conducted by different polling firms aren't directly comparable, but still, the deterioration in how Obama is viewed by independents at the same time Sarah Palin's appeal to these critical voters is on the rise must have The One's handlers afraid... very afraid.

While the Obama team at The Neverending Campaign^TM burn the late night oil enviro-friendly neon lights at the White House, you can read Andrew's full post here.

- JP

Barone: Palin running even with Obama?

Michael Barone, in his Beltway Confidential column in the Friday Washington Examiner, looks at recent polling results from Rasmussen. With a 3 percent margin of error, the poll essentially shows Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin each tied with President Obama in head to head matchups:

"I don’t think these numbers are anything like a reliable indicator of how the 2012 election cycle will unfold; they’re more like a referendum on Obama today, and not a particularly complimentary one. But it’s interesting that three Republican politicians, each with his or her own liabilities, are still running about even with Obama."

 What seems most significant to us about the more recent polls is that the trend shows Obama in decline and Sarah Palin on the rise. There are many political variables which can change between now and 2012, but it's interesting to track the numbers along the way. The critical variable among them, in our opinion, is what the unemployment picture will look like when campaigning begins in earnest for the 2012 elections. If it is still in double digits, the president will be in a world of hurt.

- JP

Sarah Palin Rising: New Poll Results

As we noted Tuesday, recent Rasmussen polling shows Sarah Palin's favorability ratings to to be on an upward trend, despite a campaign by the hateful left and their trained media attack dogs to smear the former governor 24/7 for well over a year. The 2008 GOP vice presidential candidates favorables are, in fact, higher than President Obama's approval ratings.

The results of a new Opinion Dynamics poll conducted for FOX tend to confirm Scott Rasmussen's findings. The new survey shows that Mrs. Palin's favorable score among all voters has risen nine percentage points above July's mark of 38 percent.

Also among all voters -- not just Republicans -- Sarah Palin is viewed more favorably than her most likely potential rivals for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination:

Palin has been mentioned as a possible presidential candidate in 2012, along with a host of other Republicans. Among self-identified Republicans in the survey, Palin gets the highest favorable ratings (70 percent) amid a group of other possible contenders for the GOP nomination, including Mike Huckabee (63 percent), Mitt Romney (60 percent) and Newt Gingrich (58 percent).

Former Governor Palin's gains have come mostly from independents. Last July, more members of this key demographic group saw her unfavorably than favorably, by a 51 percent to 38 percent margin. The Going Rogue author has turned those numbers around. Now 49 percent of independents see her in a favorable light, while her unfavorables have dropped to 38 percent.

How has she manged to do this? We think it's too soon for Sarah Palin to benefit from the positive impression she is making on the general public with her recent television appearances with Oprah Winfrey and Barbara Walters to promote her book. And before she made these appearances, she kept mostly a low profile except for expressing her opinion on a range of issues on Facebook. In time, Mrs. Palin's presence in both the new media and old will help to drive up her favorability ratings, but we don't believe enough time has elapsed for the improvement in her poll numbers to be attributed to the media blitz.

We think that Sarah Palin's rise in the polls is mostly a result of the boomerang effect. We have long predicted that the assault on her by the left and the media would reach the point of diminishing returns and would start to backfire on those who are trying to do her in. This is what we are seeing now. A clue can be seen in the Opinion Dynamics finding that 61 percent of all voters believe that Palin has been treated unfairly by the media.

As we have argued, independents have tired of hearing these below-the-belt attacks. They want substantive solutions to the problems that they had believed that voting for the Democrats last November would bring. The Democrats have owned Congress for three years and the White House for nearly a year, and things have gotten worse, not better. Obama and the Democrats in both houses have failed them, and independents are looking elsewhere for solutions. Sarah Palin is offering them common sense conservative proposals to get the country back on track, and they are willing to take a second look at her.

The delicious irony for conservatives in this is that those on the left who have using Alinsky methods in their attempt to destroy Sarah Palin have become victims of their own nefarious tactics.

Update: Allah says:

"Good lord — Sullivan’s going to have to take another few days off to cope with the data."

- JP

Majority of Americans agree with Palin on ObamaCare

Forget the town halls just for a few minutes and take a look at the numbers. In an online (and therefore unscientific) poll of its readers conducted this weekend, AOL posed the question:

Do you agree with Palin's characterization of Obama's health plan as "evil"?

The results so far, with 188,220 votes recorded:

Yes 59%
No 41%

If the AOL poll were the only indication of the mood of the country about Obama's plan to socialize medicine in this country, it could be ignored. But three more statistically significant surveys conducted by respected polling organizations tend to back up the AOL results.

A scientific Rasmussen survey conducted late last month produced results which show that a majority oppose the Democrat-sponsored health care bill currently being considered by the congress:

The health care reform legislation working its way through Congress has lost support over the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% of U.S. voters are at least somewhat in favor of the reform effort while 53% are at least somewhat opposed.

Today’s 44% level of support is down from 46% two weeks ago, and 50% in late June.

Opposition has grown from 45% in late June to 49% two weeks ago and 53% today.

Rasmussen's findings support the results of a poll conducted in mid-July by Zogby for the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston:

"By a 50-42 margin, Americans oppose the House of Representatives' bill introduced July 14," said S. Ward Casscells, M.D., vice president of external affairs and public policy and the John Edward Tyson Distinguished Professor in Cardiology at the UT Health Science Center at Houston. "This bill would call for most employers to sponsor health plans and would also create a Medicare-like plan for those under 65 who have no other health plan. The increased costs would be covered by increasing income taxes on individuals making more than $280,000 and families making more than $350,000."

The UT/Zogby survey revealed that most Americans are unwilling to pay higher taxes and instead want to use the savings from improving care and cutting fraud and waste to fund health care for those who are currently uninsured. Another key finding of the poll is that 84 percent of those who have health insurance are satisfied with the care they are receiving.

A Quinnipiac poll conducted last week shows that Americans are wary of the Democrats' idea of health care reform, and they disapprove of the way Obama has handled the issue:

American voters, by a 55 - 35 percent margin, are more worried that Congress will spend too much money and add to the deficit than it will not act to overhaul the health care system, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released August 5. By a similar 57 - 37 percent margin, voters say health care reform should be dropped if it adds "significantly" to the deficit.

By a 72 - 21 percent margin, voters do not believe that President Barack Obama will keep his promise to overhaul the health care system without adding to the deficit, the independent Quinnipiac University national poll finds.

American voters disapprove 52 - 39 percent of the way President Obama is handling health care, down from 46 - 42 percent approval July 1, with 60 - 34 percent disapproval from independent voters. Voters say 59 - 36 percent that Congress should not pass health care reform if only Democratic members support it.

Americans clearly oppose what the president and the congress are trying to do to our health care system. Unfortunately, the will of the people means little to Obama and the Democrats, who are drunk on power and determined to push through a statist agenda which involves the federal government more deeply in virtually every aspect of our lives.

Obama has motivated his most rabid supporters to "get in the faces" of all who oppose him on this issue, and his internet shock troops are attacking the opposition, especially Rep. Michelle Bachmann and former Gov. Sarah Palin, two of their favorite targets.

Obama has put the United States on a fast track to socialism. Push back. Call your senators and congressmen and tell them, respectfully of course, not just "no" -- but "Hell no!"

- JP

Quote of the Day (July 26, 2009)

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Glenn Reynolds makes an interesting observation. Though one of the least accurate of all the polls, the latest ABC/WaPo survey has 53 Percent viewing Sarah Palin unfavorably. Meanwhile, the lastest from the more accurate Rasmussen shows President Obama's disapproval to be at 51%. So within the margins of error of both polls, the president is:

"...in a statistical tie with Sarah Palin."

- JP

Surprise! Poll: Palin popular with GOP in northeast

According to PPP, a firm which polls for Democrats, Sarah Palin's popularity among Republicans is actually stronger in the northeast than in either the south or the midwest:

"Palin is viewed favorably by 89% of western Republicans, 86% in the northeast, 76% in the south, and 71% in the midwest. I wouldn't extrapolate these numbers too far, but it might be an indication she could do better in New Hampshire than Iowa. That might be particularly true if Tim Pawlenty gets a next door bonus like Dick Gephardt did in 1988 and Barack Obama did last year."

On PPP's blog, Tom Jensen says it's really not all that surprising since the percentage of Republican voters who identify as conservatives is in the 70 percent to 80 percent range in all geographic areas of the country.

Jensen opines that Gov. Palin might do better in New Hampshire than Iowa, but he preferences that speculation by warning, "I wouldn't extrapolate these numbers too far." Nor would we. It's early yet, and the governor is expected by most analysts to do well in Iowa. Plus, support for a candidate in Iowa may not be representative of that candidate's support in other midwestern states. Time will tell.

The PPP results do, however, back up findings by Gallup that put Gov. Palin's favorability ratings at 72 percent, a double-digit advantage over Mitt Romney at 56 percent.

- JP

HuffPo FAIL

In a NewsBusters expose of what passes for "journalism" at the Huffington Post, my fellow RS front page contributer Warner Todd Huston includes this example:

Then there is the political news that appears every day on HuffPo. For example, a straight out opinion was recently presented as fact by HuffPo writer Jennifer Donahue whose piece makes the claim that the Republican grassroots is lining up behind Mitt Romney, forsaking Sarah Palin, for the 2012 presidential election.

Donahue says it's Mitt rising in the GOP and has two quotes in the story to support her assertion. However, there are no names attached to the quotes and no sources for them is given. She has no pundits from the right pointing to Mitt, no party members saying they like him and no seated politicians raising Mitt's banner. She just says it is so and we are supposed to take it on faith. The whole story is thin as tissue paper. It may be true, but we get nothing to make us sanguine of the fact in Donahue's story. Just her assertions.

Yet, Donahue is billed as the "Political Director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics" and sports a journalism background. She may do a fine job for Saint Anselem College, but for HuffPo, at least, this piece is junk.

WTH is absolutely right. Not only is Donahue's post pretty thin gruel, it flies in the face of the latest polling by Pew Research, which shows Gov. Palin well ahead of Romney (by double digits) with the GOP conservative base (grasssroots) Meanwhile, she has actually improved her favorability ratings among independents (+6 percent) and even among Democrats (+7 percent) since October and November.

HuffPo wants its readers to believe that Romney has the base all fired up, while the empirical data suggests that it's Sarah Palin who continues to be the grassroots favorite, and by no small margin. Reaching beyond the base, she is improving her standing with independents and Democrats. Advantage: Palin (not Romney).

HuffPo FAIL.

- JP

Gov. Palin and the surge toward a pro-life view

At Governor Plain for President 2012, Bill gives Gov. Sarah Palin much of the credit for the recent shift in the attitudes of Americans toward the pro-life position:

"Governor Palin took what the [crisis pregnancy] centers were doing at the local level and brought it to the national stage. Unlike any other politician in recent history, she spoke of the pro-life position from a position of experience. She walked the walk and it showed."

He says that John McCain's decision to ask Gov. Palin to be his running mate in August of last year was the seminal event to forecast the shift:

"What other massive pro-life event happened to signal such a shift?"

I agree with Bill that the life-affirming governor is a major factor in an historic change in the hearts and minds of many Americans over the issue of abortion. I also agree with him that she was not the only factor:

"Now, nobody can suggest that Governor Palin alone was responsible for the movement in the national position on abortion. It should be noted, however, that Governor Palin was the most prominent national pro-life spokesperson during a time in which the numbers dramatically shifted to the pro-life cause more so than any time in recent history. It is then reasonable to assume that the governor did have at least something to do with those numbers."

Unfortunately, the poll did not include several questions designed to measure the reasons for the changes in attitude, but the pollsters were not expecting any such change. Perhaps some future polls can attempt to find the causes of the shift once it may be determined that the change is indeed the beginning of a major and lasting trend toward the pro-life view, as advocates for life so earnestly hope it is. 

There are other players who deserve some credit. Although I am not one of his biggest fans, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas must be acknowledged for landing a weekend television talk show on the Fox News Channel, the highest-rated cable news outlet, and using it to speak rather eloquently for the pro-life cause. Radio talk show hosts such as Laura Ingraham, the election behind them, had more time to devote to promoting life, which they did. Michael Steele became the Chairman of the RNC, and he used the increased media attention to him to make compelling arguments for life. Many pro-Life organizations such as the Susan B. Anthony List ramped up their tireless pro-life efforts. Even Barack Obama, the most pro-abortion U.S. president in history, unwittingly advanced the cause by pursuing such an aggressive agenda against the cause of life for all of the innocent unborn that many who had not been part of the movement for life prior to his election recoiled in horror.

Until we have empirical evidence, however, we can only speculate as to what degree Gov. Sarah Palin influenced her fellow American citizens to be more sympathetic to the pro-life view. There can be no argument, however, that she has not taken the leading role on the national stage in the dramatic struggle for the cause of life.

- JP

Poll numbers for Obama, Palin both down

Reading the Wall Street Journal headline "Alaskans Sour on Sarah Palin" you would think that Gov. Sarah Palin's popularity in her home state had tanked to something resembling the approval rating of the Democrat Congress. The Hays Research Group is an Anchorage-based polling organization which brags that its survey results have been featured in such national publications as:

The New York Times
The Daily Kos
The Washington Post
CBS News
Congressional Quarterly
Talking Points Memo
The Politico

Hmmm. What do those publications have in common? Ah, but I digress...

The latest Hays poll pegs Gov. Palin's approval rating at 54% positive and 41% negative. Prior to becoming John McCain's lipstick-wearing attack pit bull, the governor had Hays numbers as high as a stratospheric 86% positive and only 9% negative.

A couple of caveats here. Hays surveys unusually small samples of only 400 data points, so the margin of error of its surveys is plus or minus 5%. That means the governor's true approval rating could be as high as 59% or as low as 49%. I would say that it's closer to the 59% figure because her approval rating in Alaska has hovered around the 60% mark since early November. Also, most governors would kill to have an approval rating in the mid-fifties, as Palin is enjoys higher approval numbers than most of her peers.

Regardless, leftist websites are having a field day with the results. They say that she's on her way to the political graveyard. They crow that media reports about her family and her dealings with a do-little legislature amount to the kiss of political death for the first-term governor.

Not so fast, there, pilgrim. The same Wall Street Journal reported in March that President Obama's approval ratings had fallen to 56%:

Overall, Rasmussen Reports shows a 56%-43% approval, with a third strongly disapproving of the president's performance. This is a substantial degree of polarization so early in the administration. Mr. Obama has lost virtually all of his Republican support and a good part of his Independent support, and the trend is decidedly negative.

Given the 5% margin of error of the Hays poll and Rasmussen's more confident 3%, the approval ratings for Gov. Palin and President Obama are not statistically significant. The fact that the numbers for both the president and the governor have fallen to still very good, but more realistic, levels doesn't mean that either of them have reached the ends of their respective political careers. There's still a long way to go to the next election.

The nutroots bloggers who are celebrating the decline in Gov. Palin's numbers, of course, fail to mention that the president's approval ratings have taken a similar dip. When you actually have to do something in government, no matter what it is, you're going to anger a portion of the electorate. It's called governing, and it has its consequences. Abraham Lincoln addressed it on one of his most famous quotations (which he adapted from poet John Lydgate):

"You can please some of the people all of the time, you can please all of the people some of the time, but you can’t please all of the people all of the time."

Update: To put Gov. Palin's ratings in perspective, take a look at this table of governor approval ratings at Race 4 2012. As I've said many times, Sarah Palin still has approval numbers that most of her fellow governors would kill for.

- JP

PPP Poll is not believable (Updated)

I really hate to bite the hand that directs traffic to me. After all, the GOP 12 folks were nice enough to link to my cross-post at RedState.com about the AR-15 the NRA will present to Gov. Palin next month.

But the website accepts at face value a poll from Public Policy Polling which is supposed to show in a hypothetical 2012 match up, how various Republican candidates would fare against President Obama:

Sarah Palin's numbers are an interesting conundrum. She easily has the best favorability among Republicans voters, with 76% saying they have a positive opinion of her. The other three range from 60-67 with the party base. But she also has the largest percentage of GOP voters- 21%- who say they would vote for Obama if she ended up being the party nominee. So for the folks in the party who don't like her that feeling is strong enough they'd rather vote for a Democrat. It adds up to a 12 point deficit for her, 53-41. Overall the electorate has a negative opinion of Palin, 42/49.

I'm a bit more skeptical about the results of this poll than the good people at GOP 12 for several reasons:

The PPP poll is at odds with results from more accurate surveys. Rasmussen, for example, found Gov. Palin's favorable to unfavorable rating to be 52/46 at the end of January. This is within the margin of error of a CNN poll which reported a 49/43 favorable/unfavorable ratio for the Alaska governor just after the election.

By more accurate polls, I mean that PPP doesn't even show up in this list of the 23 most accurate polling firms, as determined by Panagopoulos at Fordham University:

The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national pre-election polls (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

Public Policy Polling is a Democrat polling organization. Unlike Rasmussen, they have a vested interest in the outcomes of their surveys. I'm not accusing them of fudging their numbers. Just saying that they are not without their biases.

And finally, no other polling firm shows Gov. Palin with higher unfavorables than favorables, which again calls the results of this PPP poll into question. If you look strictly at PPP numbers, the 42/49 favorable to unfavorable results of this poll show a sharp improvement over what PPP reported last month, when it showed favorable/unfavorable numbers for Palin of 50/39. If you believe PPP's numbers, then you have to believe that both the governors' favorables and unfavorables increased by 8-10 points in 30 days.

And that seem far-fetched to me. Even if recent negative press had been successful in driving down her numbers,  Palin's unfavorables would have increased, and her favorables would have declined, which they did not. I'll wait for the next time Rassmussen, the most accurate pollster, runs the numbers on Sarah Palin again, thanks.

Update: Videmus Omnia reports that Allahpundit at Hot Air has sipped the Kool Aid and bought into this questionable poll lock, stock and barrel. But Allah always is quick to believe the worst about Gov. Palin.

- JP