Palin Supporters for Newt Gingrich?

The Logical Second Choice
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A growing number of Sarah Palin supporters, having finally come to terms with her decision not to run for president in 2012, are now beginning to give Newt Gingrich a second look. Many of the Paliniste never had a second choice in mind, so the process to find another presidential candidate to back has been a slow and deliberate one. Though Sarah's Army surveys the field of announced candidates and finds every one of them lacking in comparison to the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, some have concluded that the former Speaker of the House, more so than any of his Republican rivals, is the one they can settle for.

Already two noteworthy bloggers who have been strong advocates for Gov. Palin have endorsed Gingrich. Sheya, whose Palin TV website specializes in making Palin-related videos available to her supporters, endorsed Speaker Gingrich today on his personal blog, Sheya.com. M. Joseph Sheppard, whose support of Gov. Palin has been unyielding at A Point Of View, rolled out an additional blog, Palin Supporters For Gingrich 2012, late last week. It is important to point out that both bloggers remain staunch supporters of Sarah Palin. They have not retired their pro-Palin websites, but are expressing their support of Gingrich for president in the context of their general support for Gov. Palin and the principles she advances. Even Stephen Bannon, director of the landmark Sarah Palin documentary "The Undefeated," devoted a segment of his KABC radio program "The Victory Sessions" to a Newt Gingrich interview Sunday.

Why Gingrich, and why not one of the other declared GOP presidential canidates? There are several reasons.

Reagan Conservatism

Like Sarah Palin and more so than any of his rivals for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, Newt Gingrich is a Reagan conservative. Unlike Gov. Palin, who was just sixteen years old when Reagan was first elected president, Gingrich had already served the first of ten terms in the U.S. Congress and had the opportunity to work with Reagan, which he did for a period of eight years. There was a cross-pollination of ideas between Gingrich and Reagan which made a conservative out of Gingrich and provided President Reagan with themes for his reelection campaign in 1984, not the least of which were the "Opportunity Society" principles developed by Gingrich and some of his House colleagues.

After Reagan left office and the Republican Party began to drift back toward the center under President George H. W. Bush, Gingrich went against the grain, rising to his first leadership position in the House, Minority Whip. Gingrich continued to advance Reagan principles after Bill Clinton won the presidency in 1992, co-authoring the Contract With America in 1994 and winning election to the powerful position of Speaker of the House by his colleagues in 1995. Palin supporters looking for the Reagan conservative in the 2012 field of GOP presidential contenders will inevitably conclude that Newt Gingrich is the pick of the litter.

Experience and Accomplishment

Like Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich has a long record of experience and accomplishment, though the achievements of the two were reached from paths that were quite different. The Palin resume shows two terms as a city councilwoman, two terms as a mayor, a stint as a state oil and gas commissioner, and a partial term as a governor. Gingrich's governmental experience came from twenty years in the U.S. House of Representatives, but he rose to the highest leadership position in that body. In addition, his resume is fortified with experience as a professor of history and geography. He has also taught military and foreign policy courses at the U.S. Air Force Academy and the National Defense University. Gingrich was a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and remains a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution. Like Gov. Palin, speaker Gingrich is a best-selling author, and he has also produced several public policy documentary films with David Bossie and Citizens United.

Both Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich are reformers, and both can be proud of accomplishments borne of their shared Reagan conservatism and political activism. After making reforms in the way Alaska does business and cleaning up her state's Republican Party, Gov. Palin has been working to achieve national reform. She helped elect a number of conservative candidates in the 2010 midterm election and is significantly shaping the current political debate though her public appearances and written op-eds. As House Speaker, Gingrich is largely responsible for reforming the way the federal government administers welfare, and his negotiations with President Clinton resulted in the first balanced federal budget that had been seen in thirty years. Both Palin and Gingrich have proved that they can work with the opposing party to achieve reforms of benefit to their constituents.

What's not to like?

Newt Gingrich is not without his political sins. His endorsement of Dee Dee Scozzafava in New York's 23rd Congressional District has perhaps earned him most of the ire of conservatives he has suffered. The former Speaker has acknowledged that he made a mistake and moved on. He's a smart politician, and we certainly hope that he has learned a lesson from the experience. To be fair, Sarah Palin has made some endorsements that also angered conservatives, most notably backing Carly Fiorina over Chuck DeVore for the U.S. Senate from California.

Gingrich has also expressed regret for making a commercial with Nancy Pelosi on the issue of climate change. He's hardly alone as a conservative who fell for the left's tactic of using thousands of scientists to push the man-made global warming myth. And, yes, Sarah Palin's position on this issue is one which can best be described as "evolving." Conservatives were no less angered by Gingrich's working relationship with Hillary Clinton, as the two have served together on a couple of commissions. Though the former speaker was largely responsible for the defeat of then-Senator Hillary Clinton's universal health care plan, he offered both praise and criticism of Clinton during her run against Obama for the Democrat Party presidential nomination in 2008. Again, Gov. Palin has praised Hillary for cracking the political "glass ceiling" for women, and a number of Clinton's strongest supporters have also been supportive of Sarah Palin. In the final analysis, very few conservatives would be able to pass an ideological purity test, and those who can don't tend to win national elections. Even Ronald Reagan made a deal with the Democrats that resulted in a tax increase, and he came away from the experience chagrined, but much wiser.

We won't dwell on Gingrich's personal baggage, only say let he who is without sin cast the first stone.


The High Road and Respect for Sarah Palin

Of the announced presidential candidates, Gingrich is the most prominent one who has refrained from engaging in petty bickering with his rivals. His criticism of the other candidates has been rare, principled and always limited to issue positions. Taking the high road is earning him considerable respect and helping his polling numbers to improve significantly. This stands in marked contrast to the way many of the others, especially Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, have attacked each other. Like Sarah Palin, Gingrich mostly finds something positive to say about his competitors, even when he states his differences with them on policy positions.

Unlike his rivals, he has always been supportive of Gov. Palin, even during those rare moments when he offered constructive criticism. Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul and Gary Johnson have publicly dissed her. Though publicly insisting that Palin is a "friend," Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry have allowed their surrogates to attack her, and both have had supporters spread patently false rumors that Gov. Palin was on the verge of giving their candidate her endorsement. A number of Perry supporters, through op-eds published by sites such as RedState.com and Ace of Spades HQ, as well as ill-conceived messages sent via Twitter, have virtually guaranteed that Palin backers will never throw their support to the Texas governor. Gingrich has often publicly praised Gov. Palin, and there have been no substantial anti-Palin undercurrents from his supporters. It's clear that the former speaker is not only wooing the Palin troops, but he understands that he must earn their support.

Bottom Line

It's not clear if Gov. Palin will make an endorsement in the GOP presidential primary, even before the RNC convention next August. What is clear, at least to those Palin supporters who do their homework, is that when the records, policy positions and treatment of Sarah Palin by the announced GOP presidential candidates are stacked up next to each other, only Newt Gingrich stands out as the real Reagan conservative among them. While this site is not yet officially endorsing the former Speaker, we are leaning in his direction. At this time we can see no other logical second choice for Gov. Palin's supporters.

- JP

Did Team Palin uncover an October surprise in September?

We think Gov. Palin and her advisors sensed "a great disturbance" in the political force
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There's one thing about Sarah Palin that her supporters, critics and even "neutral" pundits all agree on. Her political instincts are remarkably prescient. She has been praised for this keen instinctive ability to read the political tea leaves throughout her entire career. When Gov. Palin announced on October 5 that she had decided not to run for president, she cited family reasons. What this really means is that it was a family decision, but we were left to speculate on what factors were involved in her family's deliberations.

There's no question that a national campaign would be a major disruption of family life for the Palins, and security issues almost certainly were factored into the decision. But political concerns had to have also been involved in what was ultimately a key decision involving the governor's political career. The words "at this time" from her official statement have been cited by some of her supporters as a clue that Sarah Palin, her family and her close advisors saw some new wrinkle in the political landscape that may have caused her to postpone her run, perhaps until 2016 or 2020.

You do not produce quality campaign ads like "One Nation" and "Together" simply to raise money for your leadership PAC or to build your image for public relations purposes. You don't cancel the southern leg of a bus tour that was to have included the early primary state of South Carolina because of family considerations, either. You don't have your lawyers make calls to early primary states to verify presidential filing deadlines unless you are still seriously considering a run. Likewise, you don't convene a round table with your closest advisors to map out strategy for a presidential run, unconventional as it may have been, if your aim is just to string people along.

No, something happened. We think Gov. Palin and her advisors sensed "a great disturbance" in the political force, probably at some point in September, that caused them to put on the brakes. Could it have been that they concluded that the fix is in for Mitt Romney? Consider Stacy McCain's bombshell Thursday that Cesar Conda, Sen. Marco Rubio's top staffer and a Romney loyalist, was instrumental in the Florida GOP's decision to move their state's primary up to January. The earlier states schedule their primaries, the more it helps Romney and hurts other candidates like Herman Cain. This revelation taken together with the GOP establishment's strategy to co-opt Sarah Palin's allies in the TEA Party, make it difficult to believe that such political factors as these were not involved at least to some degree in her decision not to run.

The primary shuffling will throw up obstacles that will be very difficult, if not insurmountable, not only for conservative candidates such as Cain, but also for any other candidate not named Mitt Romney. This had to have been a key factor in the political calculus of Sarah Palin, but don't doubt that it was a consideration for Chris Christie and Rudy Giuliani as well. Not just political instincts, but good political intel were likely involved in all three of these decisions not to run. Christie's quick endorsement of Romney so soon after he announced that he would not get into the race indicates that not only did the New Jersey governor realize that the fix for Romney was in, but like any political opportunist, he was determined to use it for his own future political gain.

Unlike Christie, Sarah Palin is not for sale and neither are her core supporters. In his follow-up piece for The American Spectator, Stacy attributes the increase in Cain's poll numbers largely to Palin supporters jumping on board the Cain train following the governor's announcement that she would not run. But if you look carefully at the polling data, it's clear that Cain's rise is almost directly proportional to Rick Perry's decline. What Stacy seems to have missed is the fact that Sarah Palin's strongest supporters are in no hurry to jump to any other candidate's ship. Indeed, her own ship is not sinking. It has only lowered its sails "at this time." Make no mistake: when a favorable breeze is felt, the canvas will again be hoisted. No one GOP presidential candidate even comes close to offering the complete package Gov. Palin's supporters still see in her. A few of her fair weather "fans" may go with the flow (or the media's "flavor of the month"), but her serious supporters know that only dead fish do that, as the governor has often said. No, it will take quite a lot for any other candidate to win the allegiance of the Paliniste. So far, we're not seeing it from any one of them.

- JP

Sarah Palin, the Medium, the Message and the Future

How time can work for Gov. Palin rather than against her.
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If Sarah Palin had decided to contend for the GOP nomination, could she have secured it and gone on to defeat Barack Obama in the 2012 general election? Although most of her supporters are convinced she would have accomplished both tasks, my opinion is not likely to be a popular one among my brother and sister Palaniste.

Don't get me wrong. I was one of the first to recognize that Gov. Palin is a remarkable woman, and her political instincts are nothing less than exceptional. I've been blogging for her for three years. Now that she's taken herself out of the running, I'll probably write her name in on my ballot come November. But this isn't my first political rodeo. I've been a student of American politics since the 1960 battle for the White House over half a century ago. One of the more illuminating lessons of that historic election was uncovered in analysis of audience reaction to the Kennedy-Nixon debate. Those who watched on television were convinced that JFK was the clear winner, while those who listened on radio were equally sure that Nixon won it hands down.

Four years after Kennedy's eventual victory (which was won by just 0.1 percent of the popular vote, 49.7 percent to 49.6 percent), communication theorist Marshall McLuhan's book, Understanding Media: The Extensions of Man, was published. In it, he coined the phrase, "The medium is the message," meaning that the form of a medium embeds itself in the message, creating a symbiotic relationship by which the medium influences how the message is perceived. Sarah Palin's message, which should be what matters most, has been overshadowed and greatly distorted by the master media manipulators of our age.

Most Americans, including likely voters, don't know much, if anything at all, about Sarah Palin's record as a city councilwoman, mayor, oil and gas commissioner and governor up in remote Alaska. Indeed, many believe that the entirety of her political experience consists of the partial term she served as governor before she was scooped up and deposited on the national political stage as John McCain's running mate in 2008. Though the media at first dutifully outlined her political resume, before the RNC convention had even wrapped up, it had faded into the background and was soon forgotten. All the talk was about an unmarried daughter who was expecting a child.

And so Sarah Palin hit the campaign trail and went where the geniuses who ran the McCain-Palin effort off a cliff told her to go for media interviews. Never in U.S. electoral history had a vice presidential candidate been grilled on foreign policy issues as Sarah Palin. Despite the fact that Russia and Alaska are in such close proximity, have many cultural ties and are trading partners, the takeaway from the media was that Gov. Palin could "see Russia from her house," something she never said. But that punch line from a weekly television comedy show became the measure that her take on U.S. foreign policy was to be judged by a public that was barely paying attention. Never mind that whenever the Russians test our air defenses with their Tu-95 "Bear" Bombers, as they still do to this day, it is always done in the skies within sight of the 49th state's coastline. But the medium is the message.

And so it went for the rest of the 2008 campaign. That which the left proposed, the media eagerly disposed, and the first woman to be elected governor of Alaska was reduced to a caricature of herself. She who governed mostly as a centrist on social issues was transformed into an evangelical theocrat. She who worked with both political parties in Alaska's best interests became perceived as an extreme right wing ideologue. The media kept hammering away at Sarah Palin in this manner for three full months, shaping the perceptions of most voters -- at least when the media even bothered to report distort her governing philosophy and issue positions. Most of the time, the media focus was on far less substantial matters, including her daughter's stormy relationship with the ne'er do well father of the governor's grandson, a wardrobe she never requested nor shopped for but acquired for her family by the McCain campaign using RNC money, and other trivial pursuits, each one distorted by a media which was not only cheer leading for the Obama-Biden campaign, but also functioning as the referees on the field where the political game was played.

After the election, the media continued to chip away at Sarah Palin's image, and what had been seen for those three months of the campaign was extended over a period of three years. When her political enemies in Alaska discovered how easily they could file bogus and frivolous ethics complaints against her, they did so more than than twenty times, and the media reported each one as front page news. But when each case was summarily dismissed or decided in the governor's favor, the story was buried in the back pages, if it was even reported at all. To their credit, Sarah Palin's supporters pushed back against the lies and media distortion, but we were mostly preaching to the choir.

It was not until the summer of this year that clubs of sufficient size were fashioned that could beat down the media's Palin narrative. The first was ironically the result of the media's determination to gain access to Sarah Palin's private emails from the first two years of her time as governor of Alaska. Though salivating reporters and editors had hoped to find truckloads of dirt on the woman they knew was an existential threat to their precious Obama, what they uncovered turned out to be compelling evidence of a capable administrator who governed competently, thoughtfully and ethically. So the emails were quickly forgotten. The second club came in the form of Stephen Bannon's excellent documentary "The Undefeated." Though unabashedly a pro-Palin film, it nevertheless presents the truth about her record as a reformer who battled and defeated cronyism and corruption in her own political party. Bannon's effort is as persuasive as it is steeped in details no policy wonk can resist devouring. Many who were not favorably disposed toward Sarah Palin have become her supporters after just one viewing of this landmark film.

But there's a problem. It takes time to change widely-held perceptions. It took Richard Nixon eight full years after his 1960 general election defeat to recast himself in the image of a winner. Nixon also had several other key factors working in his favor, not the least of which was a superior political organization. That organization allowed him to defeat his rivals for the GOP nomination, a field which incidentally included Ronald Reagan. Perception and organization are two necessities Sarah Palin needs to have working in her favor to win both her party's presidential nomination and a general election. Both require a lot of time and no end of hard work. Consider that he media has taken three years to fashion its image of Sarah Palin. It will take at least that long to repair the damage that has been done to her reputation by her political enemies, and the most serious work on that front has only just begun.

The Bannon film was only released on DVD this month, which makes the timing for it to have a significant impact this election cycle less than optimal. Yes, it can change thousands of minds before the first primaries are held a few short months from now, but millions -- not thousands -- of minds need to be changed. That takes time which Sarah Palin does not have, at least not to win the present election cycle. The governor's supporters, if they take the long view, can use "The Undefeated" to win over those millions, but it will take more than a few mere months to do so. Taking the long view has the advantage of making time work in the governor's favor and not against her. But that requires no small measure of patience on the part of her troops on the ground.

The same is true of the task of building an effective campaign organization. Time was working against the organizational effort being made on the governor's behalf, but only to the extent that 2012 has been the target. Organize 4 Palin has done work which is no less than heroic, but no matter how unconventional a Palin presidential campaign may be -- if there is still to be one -- it must regardless abide by certain conventions. If O4P takes the long view, it can harness the latent power of the grassroots to take control of the Republican Party's basic electoral building blocks. Precinct captains and county chairmen currently control this structure, one which gives them access to voter lists and the other war materiel of electoral combat. By forging alliances with local TEA Party groups, O4P can rebuild the GOP infrastructure in a manner which will be favorable to a future Palin presidential run. It's amazing how many precinct and country party posts go uncontested, which leaves them ripe for the picking. It is similarly not a daunting task to get oneself made a delegate to the party's local, state and even national conventions. This is the sort of work which has to be done to wrest control of the Republican Party away from the politics-as-usual types who wield its power today. Again, if the goal is, say, 2016 or 2020, it is very doable.

Though I take Gov. Palin at her word that family considerations were primary in her decision not to run for president this time around, I have to believe that image and organization were at least secondary reasons of consequence. If her supporters look ahead, keep their feet on the ground and do the legwork, they can not only change the media-shaped public perception of her to that which is told by her true story, but they can also make the Republican Party a much more Palin-friendly organization. The lessons of this electoral cycle can be valuable learning for Sarah's Army. Like a freshman year at a war college, her troops can come away from their experience fully armed and ready for battle. But it will require them to get the stars out of their eyes and see the nuts and bolts of basic political construction and how they can be used to build a formidable political organization.

Sarah Palin is no Richard Nixon, and that's to her credit in many ways. But if Tricky Dick could make himself into a winner after a humiliating defeat and years later into a elder statesman after the biggest political scandal in American history, it should be no problem for Sarah and her supporters to correct her image in the eyes of the majority of voters. Remember, Nixon managed to change his own image after the media had made him into a political pariah. In four years' time, with her supporters using the media resources available to them to make an electorate much more receptive to her message and remaking the Republican Party into one that fights for her rather than against, I'd be willing to wager that she would have a difficult time saying no to a Draft Palin movement. Consider that the perceptions and concerns of some of the family members can also possibly change over a period of years. In the meantime, she will be doing her part to change hearts and minds. If her supporters can do the same, perhaps it will be history in the making. If the medium is indeed the message, why not use the media, including such powerful resources as "The Undefeated," to make the message her message?

- JP

Tony Lee: Christie says ‘Not My Time' -- All Eyes Now on Palin

"So could it now be Palin’s time?"
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Human Events columnist Tony Lee calls our attention to the interesting coincidence that on the same day New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie had to call a press conference to convince some in the GOP establishment and the media once and for all that he's not running for president this election cycle, DVDs of the Sarah Palin documentary "The Undefeated" went on sale in thousands of retail and online outlets.

If it is not Christie's time, as the governor declared Tuesday, the question now becomes, is it Gov. Palin’s time?

From now until the end of October, when candidates must meet the first official filing deadline to get on the primary ballot, the eyes of the political world will be on Palin, who, unlike other candidates who have shown a public sense of indecision, has never gone on record to say that she would not run for President.

In recent weeks, books that have sought to potentially undermine Palin have been thoroughly discredited.

For instance, Joe McGinniss​, an author of an anti-Palin book, had an e-mail he wrote to a source discovered in which he wrote that a “legal review of my manuscript is under way, and here’s my problem: No one has ever offered documentation of any of the lurid stories about the Palins.”

McGinniss’ shenanigans and vindictiveness are representative of the frivolous ethics charges Palin was confronted with when she came back to Alaska after the 2008 election, which The Undefeated documents.

In an unconventional cycle in which candidates have seen rapid and wild swings in their poll numbers in a matter of weeks, Palin is the only Republican figure with enough clout, name recognition and grassroots support to enter this late and be a contender.

In fact, one difference between Palin and Christie is that while the Republican and financial elite have backed Christie, Palin’s support comes from her fervent grassroots supporters who disdain and loathe the GOP establishment and what Palin has referred to as the “permanent political class,” almost as much as they love Palin. Another difference is Palin’s bold conservatism, as opposed to Christie’s more pastel brand, the former’s fitting the spirit of this cycle way more than the latter’s.

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In a delicious twist of irony, the same ruling and chattering classes who have assured us that it was too late for the 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate to get into the 2012 race for the White House just made such a turn of events plausible by arguing that there was still plenty of time for New Jersey's governor to start a presidential campaign entirely from scratch. All that remains to be seen are whether Sarah Palin will run and when she will formally announce her intentions. While political junkies wait for those questions to be answered, Tony Lee concludes, "all eyes will be on Palin, and the GOP field is far from being considered set."

- JP

Michael Shear: Palin ‘on the Verge’ of Decision About Presidential Run

She is reportedly "just days away from deciding whether to run for president."
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At the NY Times political blog, The Caucus, Michael Shear writes that Gov. Palin is reportedly 'just days away' from making her decision on whether to get into the 2012 race for the White House:

In a letter to donors late last week, Tim Crawford, the chief of her political action committee, wrote that Ms. Palin is “on the verge of making her decision of whether or not to run for office.”

Mr. Crawford noted that “someone must save our nation from this road to European socialism,” and asked for money as a way of demonstrating support if she throws her hat in the ring. He gave no clue to her decision, though he added that time is “running out.”

In fact, the political clock is ticking away. Ms. Palin now faces serious deadlines in October that, if missed, could keep her name off the presidential primary ballot.

[...]

The brain trust around Ms. Palin is still small. It includes her husband, Todd; Mr. Crawford; Rebecca Mansour, who started a pro-Palin Web site; Michael Glassner, her chief of staff; and maybe a half-dozen other loyal aides.

They are well aware of the deadlines and of the amount of work that must be done quickly if she decides to run. Aides insist that if she has made a decision, they have not yet been informed about it.

If Ms. Palin tells them she is running, aides will move quickly to incorporate a campaign committee, probably in Delaware. They will have to find a headquarters building. (An aide promised it would not be inside the Washington Beltway.) Calls will be placed to 15 or 20 wealthy supporters to begin preparing for a fund-raising blitz.

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Knowing the issues that are most important to Gov. Palin -- cronyism, energy security and the nation's debt crisis -- no one candidate in the GOP's field has seriously addressed all three. Michelle Bachmann has brought up cronyism; Newt Gingrich has talked some about energy; and a few candidates -- more notably Herman Cain and Ron Paul -- have discussed the debt crisis, but each of the candidates has deficiencies or other problems which we are sure would prevent the former vice presidential candidate from being able to give her endorsement.

Paul and Gary Johnson would fail her national security test. Gingrich, Bachmann, Cain and Rick Santorum have no executive experience in government. Rick Perry has cronyism issues, and when Gov. Palin stood up for Arizona governor Jan Brewer on illegal immigration, Rick Perry was nowhere to be found. We believe she would see Jon Huntsman as being too far to the left, and the single payer MassCare system as a disqualifier for Mitt Romney. As for potential candidates not yet int the race, Chris Christie's embrace of the global warming myth and opposition to developing conventional energy resources in his own state would likely be a non-starter for Sarah Palin, and she doubtlessly would find Rudy Giuliani's enabling of abortion and sanctuary cities as factors which would prevent her from granting an endorsement to the former mayor.

As Shear concludes, the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee could very well decide that the void in the Republican Party's field of presidential contenders could only be filled by one person. Herself.

- JP

Tony Lee: Sarah Palin Can Pass the Buckley & Limbaugh Tests For a GOP Primary

Gov. Palin seems to be trying to reunite Ronald Reagan's coalition for the 21st century.
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At Human Events, Tony Lee is of the opinion that if Herman Cain's weekend straw poll win in Florida indicates Republicans are not enthusiastic about Perry and Romney, there's one candidate who could be poised to jump into the race and has the ability to "square the Buckley rule of electing the most electable conservative with the Limbaugh rule of electing the most conservative person in the field. That candidate is former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin":

In a reputable and unbiased McClatchy/Marist poll released last week, Palin trailed President Obama by just five percent, 49% to 44%. These numbers are most striking when just last month, Obama led Palin, 56% to 35%. Palin made up the difference and surged because she has won over independent voters and now leads Obama among those crucial swing voters.

In August, Obama led among independent voters over Palin, 48% to 42%. Now, Palin leads Obama, 47% to 43%. Further, within her own party, Palin has strengthened her support among Tea Party voters, getting the support of 87% of those who support the Tea Part as opposed to just 70% in August.

One reason Palin may have won over independent voters in the past month is that she brought up the issue of crony capitalism in multiple speeches and television appearances before Obama was hit with a bevy of crony capitalism scandals ranging from Solyndra to LightSquared. Further, Palin has also reached out to union workers and disaffected Democrats in Facebook notes and speeches with her free market populism that pits her against big government and crony capitalism. This is the strategy Reagan used to build his enduring coalition, which Palin seems to be trying to cobble back together for the 21st century, uniting blue collar voters -- white and minority -- who identify with Main Street over Wall Street and Washington, D.C.

[...]

Because Palin now beats Obama among swing voters and is almost within the margin of error against Obama (and is the only candidate who is surging against Obama), though, she has to be considered electable as well.

And while Giuliani and Romney do slightly better against Obama than Palin, both Giuliani and Romney are associated with the liberal, northeastern, Rockefeller wing of the Republican party and cannot claim to be more conservative than Palin. The only candidate among the top four who can claim to be more conservative than Giuliani or Romney would be Texas Gov. Rick Perry, but Palin does better against Perry not only against Obama but among crucial independent voters.

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Lee further observes that more so than any other candidate or potential candidate in the GOP field, Sarah Palin has embraced Tea party principles, which are closely associated with conservative principles. Therefore, she meets the Limbaugh test while remaining consistent with Buckley's.

According to Lee, if the GOP field gets winnowed down to Giuliani, Romney, Palin, and Perry, Gov. Palin is arguably the most conservative among them and the conservative candidate with the best chance of making Obama a one term president by winning over independents and staying in harmony with both the Buckley and Limbaugh rules.

- JP

Matt Patterson: The Dismal GOP Field

Conservatives deserve better than this field; America desperately needs better.
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In a terse American Thinker blog post, conservative author Matt Patterson takes issue with those who claim that the Republicans have a fine crop of 1012 presidential candidates, and he urges Gov. Palin and others to get into the race:

Let me get this straight: The conservative presidential field includes (1) the father of a socialized medicine regime every bit as disastrous as Obamacare, but who thinks his was OK because it was at the state level, (2) a woman who, in spite of having no interest in the subject, studied tax law because her husband told her to, and (3) a man who think it's OK if Iran gets nukes.

Holy crap. Romney, Bachmann, and Paul respectively seem to have distinguished themselves primarily by displaying astonishingly poor judgment. No wonder everyone is salivating over Rick Perry, hoping and praying he is the second coming (Perry himself is leading the prayer service). He may or may not be; like most Americans, I am just getting acquainted with the Texan.

One thing's for sure, however - conservatives deserve better candidates than the current crop, or at the very least more options. So for Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, Sarah Palin, or anyone else thinking of getting into the race, my advice is: Do it. There's room for you. There are a lot of conservative voters looking at the buffet and wishing they had ordered the fish...

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- JP

Palin: 'When we're ready to announce, you won't be able to miss the announcement'

Consider that she did not say, "IF we announce..." She said "WHEN we announce..."
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Sarah Palin's mere presence at the Iowa State Fair Friday was enough to stoke speculation of a possible presidential run, but what she said to the Associated Press should give pause to those who are insisting that she won't declare her candidacy for the 2012 race:

Palin said she hasn't decided whether she would run for president, but suggested she was leaning toward a bid, adding: "When we're ready to announce ... you won't be able to miss the announcement."

[...]

And when pressed about her future plans, Palin said a trip home and a visit to the Alaska state fair were in order.

"Moose season is starting up in Alaska soon so we'll go back home and moose hunt," she said, adding: "And then, we'll come back out on the road, we hope."

As she shuffled through cattle pens and livestock buildings in a casual T-shirt and black slacks, Palin posed for pictures with well-wishers and fans. She scrawled her autograph on hats and fair programs, asked supporters what they did for a living and talked about becoming a grandmother.

Nearby, onlookers jumped onto fences and craned to get a glimpse of the Palins amid the jostling throng of journalists circling her. It was a marked change from the declared candidates who visited the fair and met with voters without such a buzz.

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Consider that she did not say, "If we announce..." She said "When we announce..." That's just one in a long series of sometimes not-so-subtle clues that Gov. Palin will shake up the 2012 GOP presidential field with an announcement before the end of September.

h/t: curth

- JP

Rick Perry is no Sarah Palin

The last person we need in the White House is another good ol' boy
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Gov. Rick Perry appears poised to announce next week that he's going to make a run for the White House. Aaron Blake and Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post report that the Texas governor's supporters are already soliciting donations for the coming Perry campaign:

Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) is expected to announce his presidential plans shortly after the Ames Straw Poll this coming weekend, and his supporters are already soliciting contributions for the campaign, according to an e-mail from a Perry supporter.

The e-mail from Gene Powell, a real-estate executive who Perry appointed to the University of Texas board of regents, states, “We expect that announcement in a week to ten days” and tells people to start writing checks today.

It is further evidence that Perry is truly ramping up for a 2012 presidential campaign, even though a top Perry adviser says the e-mail’s timeframe isn’t hard and fast.

Perry adviser David Carney told The Fix that the no one should read too much into the e-mail, which he says contains some factual inaccuracies.

“While we are encouraged by this enthusiasm, we have not made the final decision, as even this email indicates,” Carney wrote in an e-mail, “and there are some other items in that email that are incorrect, but it just goes to demonstrate how excited some of our folks are.”

Carney said the timeframe for the possible campaign continues to be “this summer with Labor Day as the outlier.”

If he announces as expected, we may give up on trying to read the tea leaves. Back on May 19, we didn't believe Perry was seriously considering a run for president because:

If Perry does allow himself to be persuaded to chase the bandwagons to the White House along with the other big dogs, it would be the biggest flip-flop since John Kerry voted for the $87 billion before he voted against it. After all, Perry stated in November of last year:

"I've made my decision. If I really believe in the 10th amendment, then being a governor of a state is where the action is."

Asked during a GOP gubernatorial debate on Jan. 29 whether he would serve his full four-year term if re-elected, Perry answered that he would "absolutely" as long as the Lord lets him live that long:

"If your intent here is to question where I would want to go any better than being the governor of the state of Texas, that place hasn't been made yet," Perry said.

Perry told the Daily Beast's Andrew Romano just nine months ago that he was "Not going to run for president." Silly us. At the time, we believed Perry to be cut from the same cloth as Sarah Palin, someone who means what they say. But intensive research over the months has informed us that any resemblance between Perry and Palin is purely superficial.

Unlike the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, what Perry says can't be taken to the bank, and there are other significant differences. She's a political reformer; he goes with the flow. She's a small-government Reagan conservative; he's much closer to the GOP establishment than his feud with the Republican Party's Bush wing would lead you to believe. She left Alaska with a $12 billion surplus; he's saddled Texas with twice the debt and doubled state spending on his watch. Rick Perry is a good ol' boy, but the last person we need in the White House is another good ol' boy. Unfortunately, Rick Perry is no Sarah Palin.

Cross-posted from Brazos Valley Pundit

- JP

Outside the OK Corral, Gov. Palin is keeping her powder dry

As she reloads, her would-be GOP rivals are shooting themselves, each other.
*
Sarah Palin's strategy of staying out of the early battles for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination is increasingly looking like a very wise plan, as her would-be rivals seem intent on taking shots at each other, and in some cases, shooting at their own feet.

It's not yet August, and just look how the two Minnesotans in the scrum, Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty are pummeling each other:

“Actions speak louder than words,” said Bachmann in a statement released by her campaign, taking Pawlenty to task over health care, the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and cap-and-trade legislation.

“Governor Pawlenty said in 2006, ‘The era of small government is over ... The government has to be more proactive and more aggressive,’” said Bachmann. “That’s the same philosophy that, under President Obama, has brought us record deficits, massive unemployment, and an unconstitutional health care plan.”

Bachmann’s decision to engage Pawlenty marks a major change in strategy for the Minnesota congresswoman. But is it a sign that she is worried about Pawlenty’s progress in Iowa in advance of the Aug. 13 Ames Straw Poll, or simply that she was fed up?

Ed Rollins, Bachmann’s campaign manager, insisted in an email to The Fix that his candidate “just [got] tired of [Pawlenty] taking cheap shots” and decided to respond. “Even if he’s at 2 percent in the polls, we are not going to let anyone take free shots at us.”

Pawlenty has been goading Bachmann for weeks as he seeks to make up ground against her in Iowa — a state seen as a must-win for both candidates’ chances in the 2012 presidential race.

Pawlenty’s main attack on Bachmann is that she lacks any record of achievement, and it appears that Pawlenty’s comments to CNN’s Candy Crowley along those lines are what set Bachmann off.

In an interview that aired Sunday, Pawlenty said that “these are really serious times and there hasn’t been somebody who went [directly] from the U.S. House of Representatives to the presidency, I think, in over a hundred years, and there’s a reason for that.”

Though it remains to be seen if Pawlenty's attacks on Bachmann will ultimately be successful, her campaign's decision to get into a slugging contest with with the former governor may indicate that Ed Rollins' internal polling may indicate that Pawlenty has been making up some ground on her in advance of the Ames Straw Poll.

Businessman Herman Cain appears to be leading the GOP pack in the number of self-inflicted wounds he's suffered. Cain came out of the gate strong, but a series of foreign policy position blunders have removed much of the shine from his rising star, as Commentary Magazine's Jonathan S. Tobin recounted early last month:

You may recall that at the South Carolina GOP presidential debate he said he had no idea what to do about Afghanistan but would consult with experts about it. Later he said he would come up with a plan sometime between his election in November 2012 and his inauguration the following January. Then he was asked about the Palestinian right of return by Chris Wallace on Fox News and had no idea what he was talking about. He later said that he was reading a book about Israel but wouldn’t say what book it was. This week he said he would go to Israel to join a Glenn Beck rally.

Last night, as The Hill notes, Cain went on the Bill O’Reilly show to further showcase the fact that he knows about as much about the dangers facing the world abroad as many of us do about the intricacies of managing a fast food franchise. O’Reilly asked him what he would do to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and all he could say in reply was that he would work for energy independence for the United States. That’s a good cause but as O’Reilly tried to put out to Cain, it wouldn’t do anything about the terrible danger to the West that Iranian nukes pose.

Cain may be a good man and he may even be on the right side on these issues, as his instinct to support Israel seems to show. But the point about Cain and foreign policy is not just that he’s not very knowledgeable about such things. It’s that he is so self-confident about his abilities that it seemingly hasn’t occurred to him that this ignorance is a liability.

Herman Cain is a political neophyte, and his inexperience at least somewhat excuses his missteps. But Newt Gingrich, a veteran of many political campaigns, can claim no such excuses. He was the first of the GOP presidential pretenders to self-destruct, and the list of his stumbles runs from losing most of his campaign staff only days after his formal announcement to his inexplicable attack on House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's proposal to reform Medicare. Now the Gingrich bandwagon seems to be a one-horse parade mired hopelessly:

For a host of party leaders, Gingrich seems to have proven with astonishing speed that he deserves his reputation as an undisciplined, self-destructive, shoot-from-the-lip politician. His flair for provocative rhetoric, combined with his desire to make loftier political points, might make him too combustible for the presidential campaign trail.

“The problem for Newt is, this is exactly what everybody who has ever worked for or around him said was his basic problem,” said Rich Galen, the veteran Republican strategist and former Gingrich aide. “Sooner or later, I suspect, unfortunately, the campaign will collapse from the top because people are going to say, ‘I love him and he’s really smart, but he can’t be president.’”

The campaign, Galen added, is “close to being functionally over.”

Little wonder that Republicans, in poll after poll, have indicated that they are generally unimpressed with the field of announced candidates so far. Meanwhile, Gov. Palin has told her supporters to keep their powder dry and has even encouraged grassroots organizers in Iowa to keep up their good work on her behalf. As she stands on the sidelines, Sarah Palin can see Gov. Rick Perry doing pretty much the same thing on the opposite side of the field. As many have speculated, when those two get into the race, the game will have changed in the blinking of an eye.

- JP

AWR Hawkins is right on Palin, not so much on Perry

Rick Perry is no Reagan conservative.
*
It's only on the rare occasion that we take issue with an AWR Hawkins opinion. After reading his latest Big Government op-ed, we see that this is one of those occasions:

When Sarah Palin’s “Going Rogue” was released in late 2009, people around the country stood in line for hours to meet her at book signings, and to shake her hand and ask her to run for president in 2012. And this was after the MSM had spent nearly a year and half dragging her and her family through the mud, accusing Palin of every misdeed imaginable, and going out of their way to remind us how unprepared Palin was for the vice presidency (according to MSM standards of course).

[...]

From the release of “Going Rogue” through the November 2010 elections, Palin traveled to Tea Party gatherings around the country and endorsed candidates (43 House candidates, 30 of which won, and 12 Senate candidates, 7 of which won). Following the elections she launched a reality show – “Sarah Palin’s Alaska” – that drew historic levels of viewers and teed liberals off something fierce because it showed Palin using a gun to kill a caribou, a club to kill a fish, and more importantly, using a weekly one-hour program to show liberals how to stand up and fight like a man.

And after the media trashed her for her Tea Party speeches, mocked the candidates she endorsed, and made fun of her reality show, she launched a bus tour that began with a DC motorcycle rally on March 29, 2011, wherein crowds of people gathered round her and begged her to run for president in 2012.

By the way, Palin also endorsed gubernatorial candidates in 2010, one of which was Republican Governor Rick Perry: a true conservative and thus a Tea Party favorite.

Hawkins goes on to praise Perry, citing a Texas economy which is in much better shape than that in the rest of the country and draws employers and job seekers to the land between the Sabine and the Rio Grande like a magnet. Hawkins is so impressed that he says he's hoping for a Palin/Perry 2012 ticket "For 16 Years of Conservative Bliss."

We hate to rain on the man's parade, but the idea of Perry as vice president or, God help us, president is not quite as blissful as it must appear in Hawkins' imagination. First of all, Texas was a low-tax, business-friendly place long before Rick Perry became governor. Also, there are many conservatives down here in the Lone Star State who are less than enamored of our governor right now. Don't get us wrong, Rick Perry is one of the good guys, but there are a few less-than-conservative flies in the Perry ointment. He has dithered on the TSA anti-groping bill, allowing it to die in the Texas legislature, and he rejected the same Arizona immigration legislation which Sarah Palin supported.

But far more troubling are Perry's proclivities for big government and the nanny state. Perry began his push in 2002 for the Trans-Texas Corridor, a super highway one mile wide and 4,000 miles long that was intended to run from Mexico to Canada to facilitate free trade and open borders. For the portion of the route that was to run through Texas, Perry planned to use eminent domain to acquire the right of way for this highway from hell, indicating a disturbing willingness on the governor's part to trample upon public property rights and uproot people from their land. The public outcry over this big government grandiosity was so loud and so prolonged that Perry had to scale it back in 2009 and abandon it entirely in 2010. Also apparently comfortable with being a nanny-stater, Perry did an end run around the Texas Legislature last month and issued a governor's executive order forcing schoolgirls to get vaccinated against the sexually transmitted virus that causes cervical cancer. It doesn't help Perry's squeaky clean image much that Merck & Co., the pharma giant that makes the Gardasil vaccine, is well-connected to the governor in multiple ways.

Finally, be aware that there's a big push on now by the GOP establishment for Perry, and this should throw up a big red warning flag for Reagan conservatives. It's all too reminiscent of the way Republicans, like sheep, lined up behind George W. Bush in 1999. Yes, Bush is another one of the good guys, but he proved by being soft on immigration and not willing to reduce either spending or the size of the federal government that he wasn't the one that real conservatives were looking for. Again, our point here isn't to slam Bush or Perry.

In short, Rick Perry is not a politician who can be relied upon to restore the federal government to the smaller, less intrusive entity the founders envisioned and Sarah Palin has been working for. Perry was certainly preferable in 2010 to Kay Baily Hutchison in the gubernatorial primary and Democrat Bill White in the general election, earning Gov. Palin's endorsement practically by default. He may be a conservative, but unlike Sarah Palin, he's no Reagan conservative. Should she become the GOP presidential nominee, the view from here on the Brazos is that she can do much better for her campaign and for the country should she decide to run for president in 2012.

- JP

Jack Kelly on the Power of Palin

Her critics have already said every bad thing they could say about her.
*
Pittsburgh Post Gazette columnist Jack Kelly makes a compelling case against the conventional wisdom, which says it may be too late for Sarah Palin to get into the 2012 presidential contest. The conventional wise guys are quick to point out that Gov. Palin has done no fundraising (beyond her leadership PAC, but she can't use those funds for a presidential run), she hasn't built a campaign team, and some of her supporters who believe the media narrative that she will not run are turning to active candidates such as Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.

But the conventional wisdom has a fatal flaw, cautions Kelly. It is "more conventional than wise." Traditionally, candidates have needed to get an early start to build name recognition, and they require a campaign organization mainly to energize supporters to get out and vote. And that's where the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee may have the conventional wisdom beat.

Sarah Palin has some 3.2 million followers on Facebook. That's 800,000 more than all the declared GOP candidates combined, Kelly points out. Palinistas are not the sort of supporters who need to be motivated either to show up at the polls or to stuff envelopes and knock on doors. All Mamma Grizzly has to do is say the word, and they will hit the ground working for her. As recent events in Pella, Iowa have demonstrated, many of them are already doing that.

Also working in Sarah Palin's favor, Kelly observes, are the RNC's new rules, which favor late entrants. He predicts that the highly touted early contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are more likely to prune a crowded field than to produce a clear front runner. The fewer the candidates in the debates, Kelly argues, the more they will matter. For Sarah Palin, the debates will be crucial.

Because the media/Hollywood left and their fellow travelers in the Vichy wing of the Republican Party have been denigrating her 24/7 for the last three years, Sarah Palin needs to build her poll numbers, especially among independents, which is where the campaign against her has had the most impact. But even that factor can still be turned around:

A new documentary, "The Undefeated," opens with a montage of vicious things celebrities have said about Ms. Palin. Viewers at the premier in Pella, Iowa, Tuesday were shocked.

But efforts to portray Ms. Palin as a shrill, stupid snowbilly backfired on the journalists who sought the release of 24,000 emails from her time as Alaska governor. The emails "brought back the memory of a long-lost Palin: the popular, charismatic competent woman of the people," who "comes across as practical and not doctrinaire," and who is "far from being a knee-jerk partisan," wrote Molly Ball in Politico.

Liberals hope their sliming of her will keep Ms. Palin from running. But it may be the most important reason why she should.

[...]

Many "mainstream" journalists have abandoned all pretense of fairness, but still expect to be treated as if they were honest brokers. Most Republicans oblige them.

Sarah Palin doesn't. She uses social media to bypass news media "gatekeepers." That's one reason so many journalists hate her. They seethe even more because Ms. Palin uses their obsession with her to make them look ridiculous, as she did during her bus vacation in the Northeast last month.

[...]

But her critics have shot their bolt where Sarah Palin is concerned. They've already said every bad thing they could say about her.

"The Undefeated," strives to set the record straight. The people in Pella who saw it liked it very much. But most Americans won't see it.

Which is why debates will be so important if Ms. Palin runs. In them, she'll either conform to the caricature of her -- or demolish it.

[More]

Gov. Palin should do well in the debates. She used a strong debate performance in the 2006 GOP primary and general elections in Alaska to turn the conventional wisdom upside down and win a governor's race the conventional wise guys had said she had little chance of winning. Two years later, she surprised the pundits, as well as Joe Biden, in a vice presidential debate after which a number of observers, including a Frank Luntz focus group, judged her to be the winner.

An email dump in Alaska which showed her to be a good governor and the media to be actively working to try to destroy her, a documentary which drives those points home to all who will see it except for the hard left, an army of grassroots supporters who will -- as Kelly notes -- "crawl over ground glass" for her, new RNC rules which favor candidates willing to bide their time until many of their opponents have severely wounded themselves and their rivals, and a talent to excel in debate settings are all key elements Sarah Palin has working in her favor in this election cycle. All she has to do is say the word, and the game is on. But she has already said that, hasn't she?

h/t: M. Joseph Sheppard

- JP

Video: That Uncontrollable Woman

Plain spoken common sense from Wild Bill for America
*
A TEA party activist and former Deputy U.S. Marshall sounds off on Gov. Palin


h/t: Conservative Blogs Central

- JP

Sarah Surprised that 'Palin Decision Expected Next Week' (Updated)

Gov. Palin says it's news to her
*
Gov. Palin expressed her surprise at Stacy McCain's "scoop" via Twitter

Really? Hmm, guess they forgot to inform me what I'm "expected to do" next wk MT@AmSpec: Palin Decision Expected Next Wk http://t.co/Ewt2Miq

Stacy had posted on The American Spectator's AmSpec blog:

Vendors of campaign services who hope to work for Team Palin have been told that Palin, the 2008 GOP vice-presidential candidate, will decide soon one way or another on mounting a 2012 campaign.

BTW: Stacy is rather enthusiastically supporting Herman Cain for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination.

Update: Stacy has updated his post:

OK, fine, governor, but I was reporting what my source had been told. Has my source been misinformed?

Dude, she just told you that it was news to her. So your source obviously was misinformed. Word to the wise: When you find yourself in a hole, the first order of business is to stop digging. You're successful in new media because you're not one of the lamestreamers, Stacy. You're better than they are. Don't lapse into being like them, what with their anonymous sources, etc. If a single source isn't willing to back up what he or she says by putting a name behind it, it's time to find independently confirming sources.

- JP

Watch as the media uses Michele Bachman against Sarah Palin

They hope to keep Gov. Palin out of the race by promoting Rep. Bachmann.
*
For those who have been paying attention, there's been a radical change in the way the media treats Michele Bachmann. It was not so long ago that the Congresswoman was being painted with the same brush and texture they applied to Sarah Palin. Both Republican women were characterized as "stupid," "ignorant," "crazy" and "right wing extremists."

But since the Minnesotan announced the formation of an exploratory committee around the end of March, the media narrative about her has morphed from "as horrible as Palin" into "not quite as terrible as Palin" and finally into "very much preferable to Palin." No, this is not just prejudice as a Palin supporter speaking, and it's not simply a conspiracy theory.

Don't believe us? A search engine provides all the evidence required for a demonstration of what we're talking about. Chris Matthews is pretty high up on the mailing list to receive DNC talking points, so we'll see how the meme has morphed from the point of view he expresses as the host of MSNBC's "Hardball."

Matthews used the terms "zombie-like" and "Moonie-like" to describe Bachmann on November 24, 2010 and implied that she was some sort of "Manchurian Candidate":

"Look at her eye contact. I asked her when we had her on election night if she's under hypnosis. She doesn't answer the question. She looks straight ahead in that kind of zombie-like manner, like she's waiting for somebody to flash a card, like in 'Manchurian Candidate.' I mean, I don't know what her state is."

Now here's Matthews January 19, 2011 calling Bachmann a "screamer" and "pretty close to a nut case":

"This kind of talk from Michele Bachmann. I don't know why she's allowed to be an extremist, and everybody is coaxing on the Right, Republicans saying the President should move to the center and be reasonable and moderate, where she's allowed to be out there as a screamer, and in many cases pretty close to a nut case."

By April 5, 2011, however, "Tweety" Matthews is chirping a slightly softer tune. He says that Bachmann is preparing seriously for a presidential campaign, calls her "exciting" and "attractive," mentions her politically appealing family life, and even predicts she will be a force to be reckoned with in Iowa. But that's not the half of it. Very strangely, Matthews made the claim that “we created her here,” meaning on his MSNBC show, and when guest Jonathan Alter attacks Bachmann, Matthew rises to her defense:

"Michelle Bachmann, female candidate, may run with all of the boring guys if Sarah Palin doesn't get in... One exciting, hard right, attractive candidate against four boring guys. I think she's got a good shot at winning that Iowa caucus. Just because she's a really interesting entry right now."

[...]

What about her personal story? Forget the ideology for a minute. She's had a big family, five kids she's raised, something like fifteen foster kids she's taken in."

By June 14, 2011, Matthews had come 180 degrees on Bachmann. Gone are the slurs, replaced with such praise as "poised, informed and serious." Suddenly, "a star" is born. Her performance in Monday night's GOP debate gets rated as "great" by Matthews, who asks, "Could she be the candidate that Sarah Palin was supposed to be?" NewsBuster Scott Whitlock, noticing the sea change in Matthews' treatment of Bachmann, questions the talk show host's motives, asking, "What is Chris Matthews up to?"

"Maybe the biggest story from last night was not Romney's cool or Pawlenty's retreat, but the emergence of a star, Michele Bachmann. She was, of course, created here. She came off as poised, informed, that's right, Gene, poised, informed and serious. Could she be the candidate that Sarah Palin was supposed to be?"

[...]

"First of all, what did you think of her performance last night? Because we all thought she was great."

[...]

"And she is what she is. I've always given her credit for not being, for example, a birther, who plays on cheap shots."

In answer to Scott's question, what Matthews is up to, we believe, is playing the left's latest strategy, whether it comes down from high as a DNC talking point or was "brainstormed" on some newer, more secure revision of JournoList, to play Michele Bachmann against Sarah Palin. The goal is to push Bachmann so hard as to discourage Sarah Palin from getting in the presidential race, and failing that, to make sure that Bachmann knocks her out. Matthews is not acting alone. All of MSNBC is playing, and across the media, in fact, we are seeing a kinder, gentler approach to Rep. Bachmann.

We're not the only ones having such thoughts. Tom Tillotson of Florida Political Press saw this coming over ten days ago, before the media's transition was complete:

Naturally, being of the tea party mindset and having absolutely no trust in the media, my conspiratorial juices, which I like to refer to as skeptical intrigue, begin to flow.

[...]

As for Palin, pundits on the right are fond of saying that the media will always let you know who they’re most afraid of by looking at who they go at the hardest. And there can be no doubt that Sarah Palin is that person. Just look at the frothing at the mouth taking place this week over her bus tour.

Yet, compare that to the cordial treatment that Michele Bachmann receives and it just doesn’t make sense. Unless the media has an agenda. An agenda aimed at the one they fear the most.

Then it hits me like a bolt of lightening!

I submit that the media is capitalizing on Michele Bachmann’s prominence in an attempt to supplant Sarah Palin as the queen of conservatism. By indirectly promoting Bachmann, which they do by not going at her with both guns blazing, the goal is to knock Palin from her perch and replace her with someone they do not lie awake at night exasperating over.

[...]

Within the tea party movement, as admired as she is, Bachmann just doesn’t quite have the star power of Sarah Palin. Sure, she’s a prolific fundraiser and her negatives are nowhere near Palin’s, but at the end of the day, unless something significant happens, she’s going to have her hands full trying to unseat Barack Obama.

And the media knows this, hence their willingness to play her against Sarah Palin.

Can you see what's going on here? We certainly hope Sarah Palin sees it. Given her sharp political instincts, we are of the opinion that she may well be aware of it. All the more reason, we submit, for her to get into the race and get in soon. Please governor, don't let them get away with this. You have proven them wrong and thwarted their plans many times in your political career. You know what is at stake here. One of the many reasons why we support you and believe in you so earnestly is that you are a fighter. If you get in this fight, you know there are millions of us who will be in your corner, and unlike a few untrustworthy souls, we will not abandon you. You can kick their butts. And they're just asking for it.

Related: See here and here.

- JP

Republicans: Palin is prospective GOP candidate most like Reagan

"Palin's big advantage is the perception that she is not a typical politician."
*
Although Gov. Palin has not announced her candidacy, her poll numbers are improving, and not just among Republicans. Her numbers are also ticking up with Americans overall. According to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, more Republicans see Sarah Palin as being more like Ronald Reagan than any other potential candidates for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination.

From the PDF document containing the survey's findings:

30. Thinking about the complete list of candidates who may be running for the Republican nomination, please tell me whether you would describe any of them as another Ronald Reagan –- that is, someone who inspires in you the same amount of confidence and enthusiasm that you feel when you think about how Reagan handled his job while he was president?

31. (IF YES) Who do you feel that way about?

QUESTIONS 30 AND 31 COMBINED

June 3-7 2011
No GOP candidate (from Q.30) 43%
Sarah Palin 16%
Rudy Giuliani 15%
Mitt Romney 13%
Herman Cain 7%
Michele Bachmann 5%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Ron Paul 5%
Tim Pawlenty 2%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Someone else (vol.) *
No opinion 2%

Other findings from the survey:

The poll also indicates that the two best-known potential GOP presidential hopefuls - Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani - are also the ones with the highest favorable rating among Republicans.

"That may explain why they feel they can wait before throwing their hats in the ring," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

[...]

Palin's big advantage is the perception that she is not a typical politician. Seven in 10 Republicans feel that way about the former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee. Most of those questioned see Romney as a typical politician.

Eight in 10 say that Palin agrees with them on issues that they care about the most. A respectable 64 percent feel the same way about Romney, but that still gives Palin an advantage on issues, and on values as well - nearly eight in 10 say that she represent the values of Republicans like themselves.

Gov. Palin's favorable ratings are up 4 points since CNN last polled on the question April 29-May 1, 2011, while her unfavorables have improved, down 7 percentage points.

h/t: Henry D'Andrea

- JP

Daniel M. Ryan: Let Palin be Palin

Trust her, and run guard for her if needed
*
Here are some excerpts from another must-read at Enter Stage Right:

Republican charismatics like Ronald Reagan or Sarah Palin are often sized up as if there's something wrong about them. Democrat charismatics never attract self-appointed handlers, while Republicans often do. Any advice-giver to a Democrat charismatic is likely to cover up said advice in a protective coat of fawning. On the other hand, Republican charismatics attract unsolicited advice like gold does gold-diggers. You don't have to wait long for some pundit or operative to write about what Mrs. Palin is doing wrong, and why she should change her ways. Strangely, some of them come from liberals trying to cultivate disinterestedness. President Reagan faced the same thing, not only before he became President but afterwards. There have been enough of them to rate a new term: "concern trolls."

A concern troll is the type of character that used to be known as a "buttinsky." The fact that Republican charismatics attract them, but not Democrats, says something about the tilted playing field of politics.

[...]

Republican charismatics tend to be out-of-the-box campaigners while Democrat charismatics are not. The Republican breed seems riskier. Democrats follow a stable pattern: they're excellent speechifiers and charming face-to-face campaigners. Other than that, they're system people. They don't mind being handled, and work well with handlers for that reason. They're dependent upon the staff, and they mostly don't mind being so. President Obama's now-notorious gaffeing without teleprompter clearly indicates his dependency.

On the other hand, a Republican charismatic is more independent of his or her handlers. It's charisma that comes from the base up, by direct bonding with ordinary people... Consequently, the former are more independent of their handlers than the latter. Professional handlers, including the Republican variety, tend to be put ajar by such people... It's a shame that this trust barrier exists, because Sarah Palin is easygoing; she wears her authority lightly. She tends to wield authority like a teacher, the kind who lets all students have their say if need be. Let me be the first to say it: should Sarah Palin become President, diligent members of her Cabinet who liked school will find her a pleasant boss. She'll be very unlike Bill Clinton, who needed George Stephanopoulos as his morning punching bag.

Once again, Republicans need to hear it: let Palin be Palin... The way to handle a charismatic like Sarah Palin is to trust her, and run guard for her if needed.

[More]

Read.The.Whole.Thing.

Best advice we've ever heard. Too bad the GOP won't take it, much less even listen to it.

- JP

RCP: Palin Plans to Meet Key Early-State Leaders

It is increasingly apparent that she is seriously interested in the job.
*
For months now, the media has assured us that Sarah Palin cannot be seriously considering a 2012 run for president because she has not taken certain steps essential to mounting a presidential challenge. These include building a staff, meeting and greeting voters in the early primary states and meeting with elected and unelected officials in those same states.

Just three months ago, Gov. Palin hired Michael Glassner as her chief of staff, a move followed two months later by bringing Hoover Institution Fellow Peter Schweizer on board as foreign policy advisor. Just days before she launched her One Nation Tour, Gov. Palin reactivated event planners Jason Recher and Doug McMarlin. On the tour, the former GOP vice presidential candidate has conducted a virtual seminar on retail politics, meeting and greeting people every time the bus stopped, shaking hands, signing autographs, posing for photographs, engaging in conversation and passing out copies of the Constitution.

Despite all of these tell tale signs and a few others, such know-it-alls as Charles Krauthammer and Dick Morris have maintained that she's not running. These people couldn't be more in denial if they were standing waist deep in the middle of a river in Egypt. The refusal of such pompous pundits to wake up and smell the coffee prompted RealClearPolitics political reporter Scott Conroy to tweet,

"I predict if Palin announces her candidacy, there will still be people on TV giving reasons why she won't run."

Indeed. By sticking their fingers in their ears and shouting, "I can't hear Sarah running," Krauthammer, Morris et al cannot hear the sound of that other shoe pounding the ground, although they will soon feel its impact.

If meeting with Granite State Republicans at a clambake Thursday isn't compelling enough evidence for the naysayers, her breakfast with Sen Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) and her comments afterward should finally raise the flag. Conroy reports:

The former Alaska governor had purposely steered clear of high-profile Republicans on the first leg of her nationwide bus tour this week, but that changed suddenly on Friday morning when she had coffee here at The Golden Egg Diner with New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte.

Palin endorsed Ayotte during her hard-fought primary battle last July, and in a brief interaction with reporters here, the former Republican vice presidential nominee indicated that she was not yet finished making the rounds with key GOP officials to whom she lent her support during the 2010 midterms.

"I just heard from Nikki Haley the other day in South Carolina, and she'd love for us to hit her state, too," Palin said of the first-term South Carolina governor to whom she provided critical backing last year.

Asked if she also intended to meet with Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad during her impending trip to the nation's first presidential voting state, Palin told RealClearPolitics, "I endorsed him, too, early on, so yes."

An aide to Branstad told RCP that Palin has not yet reached out to the Iowa governor.

Palin's eagerness to talk about her outreach to these three key early-state leaders is yet another indicator that she is earnestly contemplating a presidential campaign -- a decision that she may put off until as late as October.

Palin said that in addition to her impending visits to Iowa and South Carolina, she also now intends to take her bus tour to the West Coast.

[More]

The denier can continue to deny, but the longer they do so, the more foolish they appear to be. They can continue to make ludicrous pontifications, as did Krauthammer when he said Gov. Palin won't get into the race and shouldn't because, he claimed, it's Michele Bachmann's turn. When has it ever been a U.S. Representative's "turn" to be any political party's presidential nominee? With all due respect to the Rep. Bachmann, only one sitting Congressman has ever been elected president, and that was James Garfield in 1880. But none of the antics of the punditocracy can hide the obvious. Sarah Palin has taken and continues to take the steps necessary to challenge her party for its presidential nomination.

- JP

Rush Limbaugh: Sarah Palin vs. The Establishment

It is breathtakingly mean-spirited what some Republicans have done to Palin
*
Here are some excerpts from the transcript of Rush's Thursday show:

Conservatism in the Republican Party is still considered an outsider no matter who you are. If you're a conservative you're an outsider -- I mean a genuine conservative... I think the way Palin has been treated has really been a shock and an eye-opener for a lot of Republicans, because it really has been vicious. It is breathtakingly mean-spirited from the Republican side what's been done to Palin, not just the Democrats where you would expect it to come from.

[...]

It is hilarious, folks, to read some of the press about Palin. They just are bugged to no end, accusing her of creating traffic dangers with her bus convoy! You know, she snuck out of the hotel in Gettysburg. She snuck out the back door to head up to New York, I think maybe to meet Trump or something. She beat the media out and they're livid that she gave them the slip. They just can't believe that she got away with that. They can't believe she gave 'em the slip. They can't believe that she would even try to give 'em the slip.

[...]

She is driving them insane. In fact, this story in the Boston Herald makes mention of the fact that Romney's not too happy about this because this is his big coming out day, his big announcement. She's up there stealing his thunder in a different part of the state. He's in New Hampshire announcing. She's drawing all the crowds; says that she's not concerned about the party; she's not concerned about delegates and this, that, and the other thing. You know, I have never met Sarah Palin. I've spoken to her twice in interviews. I don't know her. People ask me for insight. I couldn't tell you. So I don't know. People ask me, "Is she doing this stuff because she has a score to settle with the Republicans, too?

"Does she think they were unkind to her during the campaign with some of the stuff they put out or let get out about the wardrobe?" and I don't know. I don't know the answer to that. I don't know if she's settling scores. I don't know if what she's doing is, quote, unquote, "establishing the brand" and making money. I don't know if what she's doing is having fun tweaking the media. Well, yeah, I do know she's having fun doing that -- and I think that represents a stunning reversal. That she's able to is a stunning reversal. She has them on the run, she has them on defensive, she has them making themselves look like utter high school gossip-mongering fools. It actually is hilarious to look at the dander these people have been worked into.

[More]

- JP

Public Policy Polling: A tie at the top for Palin and Romney

Palin 16%, Romney 16%, Pawlenty 13%, Cain 12%
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With Mitt Romney in New Hampshire to launch his presidential campaign and Sarah Palin's One Nation bus rolling into the Granite State to host a clambake for influential conservatives, the stage was perfectly set for Public Policy Polling to release the results of its latest national survey of GOP primary voters:

PPP's first national poll looking at the Republican Presidential race since Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announced they wouldn't run finds Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin in a tie at the top with 16% each. Tim Pawlenty at 13% and Herman Cain at 12% are also in double digits with Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul each at 9%, and Jon Huntsman at 4% rounding out the field.

Romney's support is built on moderate and center right Republicans, while Palin's winning the most conservative faction of the party. With moderates Romney's at 26% with only Pawlenty at 15% also reaching double digits and Palin in third at 8%. With 'somewhat conservative' voters Romney likewise leads with 19% to 15% each for Pawlenty and Palin. But with voters identifying as 'very conservative' Romney finds himself well back in 5th place at 11% with Palin leading the way at 20%, followed by Cain at 15%, Bachmann at 13%, and Pawlenty at 12%.

The Democrat polling company's somewhat smallish sample is made up of 574 primary voters who usually cast their primary ballots for Republicans. The pollster, whose clients include radical leftist site Daily Kos and the SEIU, conducted automated telephone interviews from May 23rd to 25th.

h/t: Henry D'Andrea

- JP