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Tony Lee, at Human Events:
“A new book by Sarah Palin’s adviser Peter Schweizer appropriately titled, Throw Them ALL Out, documents the inner workings of Washington that many have always suspected.”- JP
“A new book by Sarah Palin’s adviser Peter Schweizer appropriately titled, Throw Them ALL Out, documents the inner workings of Washington that many have always suspected.”- JP
From now until the end of October, when candidates must meet the first official filing deadline to get on the primary ballot, the eyes of the political world will be on Palin, who, unlike other candidates who have shown a public sense of indecision, has never gone on record to say that she would not run for President.In a delicious twist of irony, the same ruling and chattering classes who have assured us that it was too late for the 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate to get into the 2012 race for the White House just made such a turn of events plausible by arguing that there was still plenty of time for New Jersey's governor to start a presidential campaign entirely from scratch. All that remains to be seen are whether Sarah Palin will run and when she will formally announce her intentions. While political junkies wait for those questions to be answered, Tony Lee concludes, "all eyes will be on Palin, and the GOP field is far from being considered set."
In recent weeks, books that have sought to potentially undermine Palin have been thoroughly discredited.
For instance, Joe McGinniss, an author of an anti-Palin book, had an e-mail he wrote to a source discovered in which he wrote that a “legal review of my manuscript is under way, and here’s my problem: No one has ever offered documentation of any of the lurid stories about the Palins.”
McGinniss’ shenanigans and vindictiveness are representative of the frivolous ethics charges Palin was confronted with when she came back to Alaska after the 2008 election, which The Undefeated documents.
In an unconventional cycle in which candidates have seen rapid and wild swings in their poll numbers in a matter of weeks, Palin is the only Republican figure with enough clout, name recognition and grassroots support to enter this late and be a contender.
In fact, one difference between Palin and Christie is that while the Republican and financial elite have backed Christie, Palin’s support comes from her fervent grassroots supporters who disdain and loathe the GOP establishment and what Palin has referred to as the “permanent political class,” almost as much as they love Palin. Another difference is Palin’s bold conservatism, as opposed to Christie’s more pastel brand, the former’s fitting the spirit of this cycle way more than the latter’s.
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In a reputable and unbiased McClatchy/Marist poll released last week, Palin trailed President Obama by just five percent, 49% to 44%. These numbers are most striking when just last month, Obama led Palin, 56% to 35%. Palin made up the difference and surged because she has won over independent voters and now leads Obama among those crucial swing voters.Lee further observes that more so than any other candidate or potential candidate in the GOP field, Sarah Palin has embraced Tea party principles, which are closely associated with conservative principles. Therefore, she meets the Limbaugh test while remaining consistent with Buckley's.
In August, Obama led among independent voters over Palin, 48% to 42%. Now, Palin leads Obama, 47% to 43%. Further, within her own party, Palin has strengthened her support among Tea Party voters, getting the support of 87% of those who support the Tea Part as opposed to just 70% in August.
One reason Palin may have won over independent voters in the past month is that she brought up the issue of crony capitalism in multiple speeches and television appearances before Obama was hit with a bevy of crony capitalism scandals ranging from Solyndra to LightSquared. Further, Palin has also reached out to union workers and disaffected Democrats in Facebook notes and speeches with her free market populism that pits her against big government and crony capitalism. This is the strategy Reagan used to build his enduring coalition, which Palin seems to be trying to cobble back together for the 21st century, uniting blue collar voters -- white and minority -- who identify with Main Street over Wall Street and Washington, D.C.
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Because Palin now beats Obama among swing voters and is almost within the margin of error against Obama (and is the only candidate who is surging against Obama), though, she has to be considered electable as well.
And while Giuliani and Romney do slightly better against Obama than Palin, both Giuliani and Romney are associated with the liberal, northeastern, Rockefeller wing of the Republican party and cannot claim to be more conservative than Palin. The only candidate among the top four who can claim to be more conservative than Giuliani or Romney would be Texas Gov. Rick Perry, but Palin does better against Perry not only against Obama but among crucial independent voters.
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Soon after the 2008 election, in which Palin was forced to basically become a press secretary for a candidate who seemed to not know anything he stood for and perhaps the most disastrously and incompetent presidential campaign in the history of the United States, she spoke at a Republican Governors Association meeting.You don't have to dig very far below the surface to see the resentment buried there for Sarah Palin by those with competing agendas.
Unshackled from the constraints of the McCain campaign, Palin was at ease, and it was clear she was a threat then to the GOP establishment and, in particular, current presidential candidate Rick Perry, who abruptly, awkwardly, and prematurely ended Palin's press conference 15 minutes before it was supposed to, when it was clear Palin was not the bumbling idiot many had assumed she was.
Should Palin enter the 2012 presidential contest, she would threaten Mitt Romney and Perry, and this moment may be symbolic of where the rivalry between Palin and Perry began even though reports have said that Palin and Perry remain friends, especially after Palin's endorsement of Perry during the 2010 election cycle enabled Perry to essentially win his primary against Kay Bailey Hutchison and get elected again.
In the few minutes Palin had to speak at the RGA conference in 2008, Palin said now that the campaign had ended, she was essentially free to do press conference. When a reporter referred to her "political celebrity," Palin, without batting an eyelash, shot the notion that she was a celebrity and focused on substantive issues such as domestic energy production and the Republican governors working as a team to balance budgets and work on health care and immigration reform in the states. When a reporter cluelessly, and in a condescending way, referred to Palin's news conference as her first formal news conference, Palin reminded those in the room that she had been doing press conferences for years in Alaska (this was perfectly symbol and harbinger of a national media that did not know anything about her record of reform and fighting crony capitalism in Alaska).
One thing that was striking was how often Palin called for everyone to be on the same team while Perry seemed jealous that Palin was shining. Since then, Palin has been trying to unite the GOP while her rivals and purported teammates have done everything to try to not be good teammates.
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Possibly because of family. Though her husband, Todd, has repeatedly said the family has “been tested,” and her other family members seem to be on board with the idea of her running, Palin became a grandmother again last week, so any last-minute objection on behalf of her family may give her pause about subjecting them to the rigors and scrutiny of a campaign.In the final analysis, Lee concludes whether Sarah Palin has a burning ambition to be President, as those of us who support her believe, or whether she is just driven to remain a celebrity and make huge amounts of money, as those who have made it their business to disparage her cotend, "she may have no choice but to run in 2012. For now, though, she remains the great undecided."
Palin could also be “strategically” undecided. In other words, Palin knows that in a cycle in which information travels faster than in even the average news cycle, now more fragmented and compressed than ever, she has to pick the perfect time to enter the race in order to minimize her chances of fizzling out. In addition, entering the race at a later date would give her the advantage of seeing her potential opponents possibly wounded and damaged even as they pick up support.
On the flip side, as her detractors in the mainstream media, on the Left and in much of the GOP have said, Palin could also be strategically undecided about seeking attention. Because she does not have an organization of paid staffers and professional fund-raisers, she is not taken very seriously by much of the chattering class. Yet because she trusts that the suspense surrounding her decision will keep her relevant, critics feel, Palin is purposely drawing out her inevitable decision not to run just to remain relevant.
But perhaps Palin is undecided for a reason more in tune with her character. Does she want to effectively lead the Tea Party?
The anti-establishment energy is there, as was shown by Donald Trump’s meteoric rise in the polls, Herman Cain’s positive intensity scores, Michele Bachmann’s straw poll win and Ron Paul’s fervent followers. And while the Tea Party has prided itself on being a leaderless movement, this election cycle may be one in which that movement needs a leader for its objectives—such as reducing the size and limiting the scope of government—to be accomplished in the legislative arena.
But Palin may be reluctant to become the Tea Party’s leader because, as Steve Bannon, who directed The Undefeated, said, the biggest surprise about making the movie was how Palin never spoke about her record of reform and accomplishments in Alaska. To Bannon, this was so because “her parents raised her not to brag.” Seen in this light, as Palin has said, she may decide that it would be better to endorse a candidate who fits the exacting standards she often lays out.
But what if the Tea Party activists want her to be its face? She has, after all, accepted an invitation to headline a Sept. 3 Tea Party event in Iowa. What if Palin thinks no candidate fits her description of the right person to take on Obama in the fall? Or what if Palin, as her detractors have said, wants to remain in the spotlight, but sees that her core base of supporters would never forgive her, like lovers teased or scorned, if she chooses not to run?
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First, this movie will reaffirm what Palin supporters like about her while presenting a solid case to those who may be on the fence about Palin that she cannot only be a strong executive but that she can and has had a history of winning over independents in the political and policy fronts.Follow "The Undefeated" on Twitter here and on Facebook here. A website will also be unveiled soon.
Second, should Palin enter the presidential contest, her path to the nomination may eerily resemble her path to Alaska’s governorship. In Alaska, Palin resigned from the Oil and Gas commission, defeated an incumbent establishment governor of her party for the nomination, and then went on to win the general election. Should she enter the 2012 contest it would be after she resigned from Alaska’s governorship, and she would have to defeat the GOP establishment -- hellbent on throwing tacks and obstacles in her path at all costs -- to get the nomination.
Third, Palin’s anti-establishment nature resembles Reagan. Two of the most powerful moments of the film come when conservative Andrew Breitbart basically implies that the Washington GOP establishment machine is full of soulless cookie cutter types. Even more powerful is when influential conservative author and talk radio host Mark Levin compared Palin to Reagan, and how the same types of people who dismissed and hated Reagan are the ones that are cutting Palin down right now.
Fourth, should Palin run, the movie offers a blueprint of what her opening argument will most likely be to voters. She will highlight her biography.
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Fifth, the movie is heavy on themes of American exceptionalism. The implication is that Palin and Obama see two different versions of America, and Palin’s view of America, culturally and policy-wise, is the one that is worth restoring, reviving, and renewing to get America back on sound economic footing while also not losing sight of the enduring and exceptional characteristics that have and will make America, as Lincoln said, man’s last, best hope.
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Palin said that “we should only commit our forces when clear and vital American interests are at stake. Period.”Related: Daniel Horowitz, The Palin Foreign Policy Doctrine
Then, Palin said that if America commits troops and “if we have to fight, we fight to win. To do that, we use overwhelming force. We only send our troops into war with the objective to defeat the enemy as quickly as possible. We do not stretch out our military with open-ended and ill-defined missions. Nation building is a nice idea in theory, but it is not the main purpose of our armed forces. We use our military to win wars.”
Echoing the famous Powell Doctrine, Palin then said that “we must have clearly defined goals and objectives before sending troops into harm’s way. If you can’t explain the mission to the American people clearly and concisely, then our sons and daughters should not be sent into battle.”
Palin then said that “American soldiers must never be put under foreign command. We will fight side by side with our allies, but American soldiers must remain under the care and the command of American officers.”
Palin also said America should never be in a rush to send in troops...”
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The more Trump fans the "birther" angle, the more the media is likely to ask all potential GOP presidential aspirants about it, which makes the party as a whole seem extreme to independents who will decide the general election.Lee should know better than to rely on any early poll results to try to make the case for the potency of Donald Trump. If you recall, CNN's pollster and all of the other pollsters were telling us four years ago that it would all boil down to Hillary Clinton vs. Rudy Giuliani in the 2008 general election. So much for the polls, especially at this early stage of the game.
Should Trump officially enter the nominating contest, though, the potential candidate who should fear a Trump candidacy the most is former Alaska governor Sarah Palin.
How Trump can hurt Palin in the primary: If Palin chooses to run for President, her competitors will have the delicate task of attacking her without potentially alienating her fervent supporters or getting brushed back by them. This is where Trump comes in. With his previous donations to liberal Democrats and established brand and fame, Trump has neither been a rank and file Republican nor does he need the GOP base, which supports Palin, going forward, unlike some of the other candidates. Trump can, therefore, go after Palin in a way other potential candidates would not be able to. Trump can call her a "quitter," mock any of her malapropisms, or even potentially throw some haymakers -- such as taking off his birther hat and borrowing Andrew Sullivan's Trig truther hat -- and hope they land. Politics is becoming more like a circus, and Trump seems to relish being its P.T. Barnum, and there's no telling what he would do or say in a primary. In fact, Trump may even relish the blowback that he would get for attacking Palin, which would figuratively be akin to smashing a beehive with a baseball bat.
1. Be a kingmaker (or queenmaker)- JP
As noted by the likes of Grover Norquist and many other pundits and establishment Republicans, Palin, their reasoning goes, would best serve the party as a kingmaker. What they are essentially saying (try to follow the logic) is that Palin's endorsement should be the gold standard but her candidacy would not be appreciated. Even more ironic is that should Palin run, it diminishes the kingmaking capabilities of the traditional and spoiled cast of characters who are used to getting their brass rings kissed every four years.
2. Make money and be a celebrity
Andrew Breitbart recently told GQ Magazine that Palin would give up the chance to be the next Oprah should she run for President. This line of "persuasion" has also been thrown out by many, which essentially says Palin should lose millions if she threw her hat into the 2012 ring.
But if Palin were the type of candidate who would run solely to increase her earning power, it would actually be her incentive to run for the presidency in 2012.
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5. You're not serious
Despite substantive speeches on energy, thorough Facebook postings on relevant current events and public policy, and a well-received foreign policy speech in India, the meme persists that Palin is not serious. In many instances, like when the media creates a controversy and then asks a candidate about the controvery they created, which happens often in politics (ask Howard Dean), the media deems Palin to not be serious and covers her thusly while ignoring the more "serious" things she says in interviews and speeches.
Further, during CPAC, when Egypt was dominating the news, not one of the candidates the mainstream media likes to dub as "serious" had the nimbleness or flexibility to say anything about Egypt save John Bolton.
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3. Birtherism a distraction (wink)- JP
Palin, speaking in Long Island, said that claims that Obama was born in Kenya or is a secret Muslim are "distractions" and "annoying," and that Republicans should focus on the economy.
She had indicated before, though, that those who wanted to question Obama's birthplace had every right to do so.
Last weekend on Fox News, Palin seemed to be walking that line again when she said that she believed Obama was born in Hawaii before saying, perhaps a bit sarcastically, that she's not going to get in the way of Donald Trump's quest to find the true origin of Obama's birth. "More power to him," Palin said.
By saying she thought Obama was born in Hawaii, Palin prevented anyone from calling her a birther. By not denigrating those who may find it odd that Obama has not released his long-form birth certificate, she did not alienate a group of voters who can potentially vote for her in the primary and general election.
4. The anti-Obama
From her maiden Facebook post opposing ObamaCare to her energy speech at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in 2009 to her stands on foreign policy issues (most recently on Libya and Egypt), Palin has emerged as the most prominent opposer-in-chief, establishing herself as Obama's main foil.
With the GOP primary electorate staunchly against Obama, this allows Palin to cater to Republican primary voters while getting a head start on potentially becoming Obama's main opponent in the general election.
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Of course, some in the GOP establishment are baiting her with the prospect of becoming “kingmaker for life” because they desperately want her to sit out the nominating process.Lee likes July 4 for the obvious patriotic connection, but also because it marks the anniversary of the weekend that she resigned as Alaska's governor, a move for which she has received no shortage of criticism. Choosing the 4th of July weekend, Lee points out, gives her a symbolic "do-over."
And though Palin can jump in the race the latest of any candidate and freeze the whole field until she makes a formal decision, my suggestion would be for her to jump straight into the race on the 4th of July without first forming an exploratory committee, which she can say is done only by those in the Washington establishment.
In many ways, Reagan was the perfect leader for his time because he had a disposition that suited the non-fragmented media landscape that surrounded him, which consisted of a mix of the top-down three major broadcasting networks and the big national newspapers such as the New York Times and national newsweeklies such as Time.- JP
The media landscape today is more fragmented than ever. Talk radio, blogs, social networking sites such as Twitter and Facebook, and cable television give conservatives not only loud and prominent outlets but also an ability to get and share information in real time without the filter of mainstream media reporters and editors. It has also made conservatives and conservatism more mainstream and much more a part of what Washingtonians call “the conversation.”
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To cut through in this media megalopolis, a candidate has to be fierce, in-your-face, asymmetrical, savvy, timely, provocative, and engaging and compelling.
And no candidate has navigated this new media terrain better than Palin.
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Palin often chooses to defend herself fiercely on Twitter, often unfiltered. She does this because she knows that in the media cycle we live in, defenses are often most effective when they are quick, fierce, and generate buzz to drown out the original criticism. In Palin’s case, she knows her words will get out to the mass audience faster if they come from her mouth—or her fingers.
Compared with 1980, the media today is a brave new world. In Iran and Egypt, social networking sites and new media outlets energized citizens fed up with their ruling classes. Such forces also fueled the Tea Party movement, especially by uniting moms and women across the country. And though not all of these women are Palin supporters, Palin would still probably refer to them all as “Mama grizzlies.”
Palin probably would not have been successful had she been a politician in Reagan’s era. And to be fair, Reagan probably would not have been the star politician he was had he come of age in the fragmented media era in which Palin lives.
Palin has mastered this landscape and run circles around her critics. In the future, Palin will have endless opportunities to harness her acumen to advance policies and lead a political movement. She may just become to her era what Reagan was to his.
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Curious about how [anti-Palin] memes can develop among supposedly intelligent commentators (most of whom are on the left, but the right has its fair share too), I went to Palin's speech in Washington, D.C. on Friday...Now that you've read these excerpts, go read Lee's complete commentary here.
Nowhere did I see a caricature of a bumbling dolt just going through the motions. What I did hear was substance. Warmth. Humor. Unapologetic feistiness. And an optimistic belief in conservative values and principles. And what I saw was the makings of a potentially transcendent and transformational figure not only for the conservative movement but for American politics.
I don't know if Palin wants to or intends to run for President. And though her speech was delivered to those who would most likely comprise her base if she chose to run, this speech - perhaps more than any of her others - showcased some themes for a potential campaign against Democrats, liberals, and President Obama that would be more than formidable and could possibly attract a fair number of independent voters as well. It definitely struck me as a rough draft of something larger down the road.
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After Palin finished her speech, I again thought about why left-leaning commentators mock, dismiss, and caricaturize her. And two things came to mind.
First, these critics probably have never fully listened to any of her speeches. Rather, like Attorney General Eric Holder, who recently admitted that he went on Meet The Press to criticize a law - Arizona's recently passed immigration laws - that he has not even read or been briefed about, these critics are merely parroting popular misconceptions about Palin and thinking they are original and smart in doing so.
But I think there's something else at work here. I think liberals and those in the mainstream media fear her... If she does come to Washington, her conservatism and convictions won't get watered down. She'll come to Washington to change it and not let Washington change her. In the end, this, more than anything, is what scares the left-leaning members of the establishment and chattering class.