Bill Hughes: Perry Romneyizes Himself, Opens Door For Palin

With Palin in the race, the tea party will finally have a candidate with a record of reform.
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Bill Hughes, at City on a Hill Political Observer, explains why rick Perry's poor performance in last week's GOP debate may have been the game-changer that opens the door for Sarah Palin:

Perry came away from this debate extremely damaged. The talking heads such as Dick Morris (who earned his credibility as a political prognosticator by correctly predicting the 2008 matchup of Hillary Vs. Condi) insist that Romney scored major points in the debate and would reap the benefits of Perry's demise.

Maybe. But the problem with Romney is that he has been so politically duplicitous that the vast majority of tea party folks and many in the GOP no longer listen to a word that he says. He's lost all credibility and no longer possesses enough political clout to re-invent himself for the tenth time. So Perry's loss is not Romney's gain.

Who did gain? Well among the also-rans, Herman Cain scored some major points. He won today's Florida CPAC poll by a wide margin. Newt Gingrich presents himself well in the debates, but he's got the same credibility gap that Romney has. Santorum is a good guy but can't seem to generate any excitement. And Hunstman and Johnson simply amuse as dueling Don Knotts doppelgangers.

Perry's collapse will free up mainly tea party support. That tea party support is not going to Romney. And Romney's support will begin collapsing and heading to Don Knotts Jon Huntsman or the late entry of Chris Christie. In primaries, however, the tea party and the conservative wing of the party will be picking the winner this time. Not the media, the establishment or the ruling class RINOs desperately pushing the abrasive New Jersey governor into the race.

No, the person who benefited the most from this debate is Sarah Palin. Every day the justification for her entrance into this race gets bigger and bigger. Her national polling has dramatically improved and the crazed scouring of her emails, the documentary of her political career and her savvy political op-eds and speeches have been driving the political debate for months. Case in point: She gives a speech on crony capitalism and suddenly all of the GOP field is obsessed with rooting it out. Even folks who have been sidled up to its teat for some time.

With Perry on the verge of collapse, Palin's moment has arrived...

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Take the jump and read Bill's full post.

- JP

Quote of the Day (September 11, 2011)

Palin, Romney React to Perry's Calling Social Security a ‘Ponzi Scheme’
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Mark Whittington, at Yahoo! News:

“Romney clearly thinks that Perry is vulnerable on Social Security and has decided to attack him on it. The problem is that should Perry win the Republican nomination anyway, Romney's words are going to be used against Perry by the Obama administration, much like George H. W. Bush's ‘voodoo economics’ was used against Ronald Reagan's tax cut proposal in 1980. Palin is playing a far more subtle game...”

- JP

Tony Lee: Did Perry Always Jealously See Palin as a Threat?

When Perry abruptly, awkwardly, and prematurely ended Palin's RGA press conference
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After Sarah Palin delivered two speeches over the long Labor Day weekend, she soon found herself to be the target of attacks by some media supporters of two GOP presidential candidates and one potential candidate. What provoked these attacks? Was it something she said, or could it have been where she was when she said it? Perhaps both. She spoke in two key primary states, Iowa and New Hampshire, at TEA Party events. In the two speeches, Gov. Palin reinforced her credentials as a reformer, whose proven record as a governor and oil & gas commissioner who took on big government and crony corporatism.

Even worse, at least in the eyes of her attackers, the charismatic former vice presidential candidate clearly demonstrated in her two TEA Party rally appearances that she is keeping alive the spirit of Ronald Reagan​, who has become the forgotten man of the 2012 election cycle. Though the GOP establishment loves to pay lip service to the only true conservative President to serve in the modern era, many in the party hierarchy have turned their backs on his first principles. But not Sarah Palin, who continues to embrace Reagan's precepts. This rankles those who who have become cheerleaders for three potential Palin rivals. Ann Coulter, who continues her one-woman draft Christie campaign; Laura Ingraham, who is an advocate for Romney; and Erick Erickson, who along with a number of his colleagues at RedState.com shills for Rick Perry, all quickly realized that Gov. Palin would be a serious threat to their plans for their respective chosen two presidential candidates and one non-candidate.

But, as Tony Lee recalls, this week was not the first time that the Republican Party's crusty establishment and Sarah Palin's competitors saw her as a threat:

Soon after the 2008 election, in which Palin was forced to basically become a press secretary for a candidate who seemed to not know anything he stood for and perhaps the most disastrously and incompetent presidential campaign in the history of the United States, she spoke at a Republican Governors Association meeting.

Unshackled from the constraints of the McCain campaign, Palin was at ease, and it was clear she was a threat then to the GOP establishment and, in particular, current presidential candidate Rick Perry, who abruptly, awkwardly, and prematurely ended Palin's press conference 15 minutes before it was supposed to, when it was clear Palin was not the bumbling idiot many had assumed she was.

Should Palin enter the 2012 presidential contest, she would threaten Mitt Romney​ and Perry, and this moment may be symbolic of where the rivalry between Palin and Perry began even though reports have said that Palin and Perry remain friends, especially after Palin's endorsement of Perry during the 2010 election cycle enabled Perry to essentially win his primary against Kay Bailey Hutchison and get elected again.

In the few minutes Palin had to speak at the RGA conference in 2008, Palin said now that the campaign had ended, she was essentially free to do press conference. When a reporter referred to her "political celebrity," Palin, without batting an eyelash, shot the notion that she was a celebrity and focused on substantive issues such as domestic energy production and the Republican governors working as a team to balance budgets and work on health care and immigration reform in the states. When a reporter cluelessly, and in a condescending way, referred to Palin's news conference as her first formal news conference, Palin reminded those in the room that she had been doing press conferences for years in Alaska (this was perfectly symbol and harbinger of a national media that did not know anything about her record of reform and fighting crony capitalism in Alaska).

One thing that was striking was how often Palin called for everyone to be on the same team while Perry seemed jealous that Palin was shining. Since then, Palin has been trying to unite the GOP while her rivals and purported teammates have done everything to try to not be good teammates.

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You don't have to dig very far below the surface to see the resentment buried there for Sarah Palin by those with competing agendas.

- JP

Quote of the Day (September 7, 2011)

President
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Jeanette Pryor, at Lipstick 2012:

“I just want to sort my previous scribbling about the impact the debate would have on ‘Palin’s Decision.’ I wrote that Perry’s performance... would be a deciding factor.... Whether or not I was quite wrong about Perry having anything to do with Sarah’s decision, and I am very happy to admit if I’m wrong, one thing is certain after tonight’s yawn-fest -- In.”

- JP

Sarah Palin comes to Iowa to bury Perry, not to endorse him

With apologies to William Shakespeare:
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Friends, Republicans, countrymen, lend me your ears;
I come to bury Perry, not to endorse him.
The evil that men do lives after them;
The good is oft interred with their bones;
So let it be with Perry. The noble Bachmann
Hath told you Perry is ambitious:
If it were so, it was a grievous fault;
And grievously hath Perry answer'd it.
Here, under leave of Bachmann and the rest, —
For Bachmann is an honorable Republican;
So are they all, all honorable Republicans, —
Come I to speak in Perry's political funeral.
He was my friend, faithful and just to a degree:
But Bachmann says he was ambitious;
And Bachmann is an honorable Republican.
According to Scott Conroy, national political reporter for RealClearPolitics, Gov. Palin will make it clear that she if enters the presidential race later this month she will "vociferously" challenge Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s self-created image of solidarity with the tea party movement:

In her speech at the bucolic National Balloon Classic field in Indianola, Palin will lean on loaded phrases like “crony capitalism” and “permanent political class” in laying out her view of the U.S. political system’s deep-rooted ills, according to a source close to Palin and familiar with the content of the speech.

Though she will not call Perry out by name, Palin’s carefully couched rhetoric will leave the impression that she may soon draw more overt attention to one of the Texan’s potential vulnerabilities as a candidate: his history of doling out plum positions and other benefits to generous campaign donors during his nearly 11-year tenure as the nation’s longest serving governor.

“Part of what she’s going to be addressing is the frustration that many Americans feel that nothing gets done in Washington, D.C.,” a Palin source told RealClearPolitics. “We know that we have a debt problem and that we need to rein in government waste, and yet nothing ever gets done. Why is that? What special interests are involved?”

Palin’s speech before what will likely be one of the largest crowds of the campaign season to date will come on the third anniversary of her 2008 Republican convention address in the Twin Cities, when she accepted the vice presidential nomination in an almost universally acclaimed speaking performance.

In another likely indication that she still has her sights set on a White House run, Palin will also tout her record as governor of Alaska, particularly in ushering in what an aide described as “sudden and relentless reform” to state government.

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Cry Havoc! and let slip the dogs of war.
- JP

Chris Barron: Confusing Red State Attack on Palin

"I suspect he & other Perry supporters view Palin’s candidacy as an existential threat to their candidate."
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From Christopher Barron, as posted at Red Barron:

I have to admit to being more than a little perplexed at the line of attack against former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin taken by Red State’s Erick Erickson. Erickson first took the line of attack on his blog last week and it was picked up in an AP article today. Erickson goes after Palin saying:

“We are coming to the end of the line for Sarah Palin’s ability to string the Republican primary voters along,” wrote conservative blogger Erick Erickson of RedState last week. “They are trying to settle on a candidate now, they’ve held out hope of her entry and are now ready for her to put up or shut up. Many of them have already moved on.”

This line of attack is particularly bizarre given that Erickson’s preferred candidate, Texas Governor Rick Perry, announced his bid just two weeks ago. Apparently, two weeks makes all the difference in the world to Erickson.

Was Governor Perry “stringing” primary voters along when he said he wasn’t running for President and then changed his mind and decided to run for President?

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h/t: John Nolte

- JP

Scott Conroy: Why Palin might not be inclined to endorse Perry

"Palin and Perry come from entirely different worlds politically."
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In an op-ed about the Radtke-RedState conflict, RealClearPolitics' Scott Conroy makes a pretty good case why those who claim that Sarah Palin will endorse Rick Perry in the GOP presidential primary race have likely misinterpreted the tea leaves:

Conventional wisdom has held that Palin and Perry occupy a similar niche within the Tea Party movement and that the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee might stay out of the race and instead endorse the three-term governor. But there are several indications that Palin is disinclined to get behind Perry at this stage in the game.

In a Facebook post last month, Palin wrote that the office of the presidency “requires a strong chief executive who has been entrusted with real authority in the past.” Her use of the adjective “strong” was interpreted by many of her supporters to be a subtle reference to the relatively weak power of the office of governor in Texas -- compared to Alaska’s, which is one of the most constitutionally robust in the nation.

When RCP asked Palin during her recent visit to the Iowa State Fair about how her record would stand up against Perry’s, she praised Perry before more explicitly contrasting the power of Alaska’s governorship with that of Texas.

“I’m glad he’s entering the race, even though he said he wouldn’t,” she added.

[...]

The New York Times reported on Sunday that Perry has taken full advantage of lax campaign finance laws to disperse “grants, tax breaks, contracts and appointments to hundreds of his most generous supporters and their businesses.”

Palin, on the other hand, saw her political rise in Alaska fueled in large part by her instinctive antipathy toward the influence of money in politics, which fit perfectly the mood among voters in the 49th state in the wake of a high-profile corruption scandal that swept through the halls of power in Juneau during her 2006 gubernatorial campaign.

During her 2008 vice-presidential run, Palin consistently pushed back at the fundraiser-intensive schedule that the McCain campaign had set up for her and was always far more comfortable on the rope line than she was on the rubber chicken circuit, according to former aides.

[More]

Conroy concludes that though one of the two may endorse the other well down the campaign road, he sees the battle lines being drawn in the conservative blogosphere as a sign that "the the apparent surrogates for the two prospective rivals are hunkering down in their trenches." Conroy also quotes Dan Riehl, who decribes the Palin constituency as "more independent, slightly more free-thinking" than that of Perry.

- JP

Source: Perry Friendship Won't Stop 'Mama Grizzly' From Running

"It wouldn't stop her, certainly if she is planning on running."
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ABC News' Shushannah Walshe quotes a source "with knowledge of Palin's thinking" who says the friendship between Rick Perry and Sarah Palin would not prevent Gov. Palin from getting into the 2012 presidential race, if the former vice presidential candidate wants to run:

Rick Perry launched his presidential campaign with a headline-filled week on the stump. Sarah Palin is still undeclared, but seemingly giving it serious thought.

Her most recent move -- a video released by SarahPAC reprising her trip to the Iowa State Fair earlier this month -- looks a lot like a campaign commercial. She'll also be returning to Iowa Sept. 3 to headline a Tea Party rally.

Perry and Palin have known each other since before the 2008 election and they've both sung the other's praises over the years, but whether their relationship is close enough to stop Palin from getting into the race remains to be seen.

A Republican strategist with knowledge of Palin's thinking says they are close. "At the principal level, the relationship between Gov. Rick Perry and Gov. Sarah Palin is very warm," the source said.

Their "excellent relationship" notwithstanding, the source said, there's no way it would stop the former Alaska governor from jumping in the race.

"It wouldn't stop her, certainly if she is planning on running Perry's entrance wouldn't stop her because everyone knows that as soon as she enters, she'd be a top-tier candidate," the source told ABC News.

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So much for the "Palin won't run if Perry does" meme.

- JP

Quote of the Day (August 20, 2011)

The Perry-Palin Litmus Test
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Smitty, at The Other McCain:

“But is it in her best interest to go in this early? If she lets Governors Perry and Romney bash on each other and the Left while remaining aloof, is that a bad thing?”

- JP

Quote of the Day (August 11, 2011)

Perry aides confirm that he’s running for president
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Allahpundit, at Hot Air:

“I’m intrigued by the timing of the leak. Why not wait another 48 hours and let him end the suspense himself on Saturday? Are they a tiny bit spooked by Palin’s arrival in Iowa, maybe, and looking to preempt that with solid news about him running?”

- JP

Rick Perry is no Sarah Palin

The last person we need in the White House is another good ol' boy
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Gov. Rick Perry appears poised to announce next week that he's going to make a run for the White House. Aaron Blake and Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post report that the Texas governor's supporters are already soliciting donations for the coming Perry campaign:

Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) is expected to announce his presidential plans shortly after the Ames Straw Poll this coming weekend, and his supporters are already soliciting contributions for the campaign, according to an e-mail from a Perry supporter.

The e-mail from Gene Powell, a real-estate executive who Perry appointed to the University of Texas board of regents, states, “We expect that announcement in a week to ten days” and tells people to start writing checks today.

It is further evidence that Perry is truly ramping up for a 2012 presidential campaign, even though a top Perry adviser says the e-mail’s timeframe isn’t hard and fast.

Perry adviser David Carney told The Fix that the no one should read too much into the e-mail, which he says contains some factual inaccuracies.

“While we are encouraged by this enthusiasm, we have not made the final decision, as even this email indicates,” Carney wrote in an e-mail, “and there are some other items in that email that are incorrect, but it just goes to demonstrate how excited some of our folks are.”

Carney said the timeframe for the possible campaign continues to be “this summer with Labor Day as the outlier.”

If he announces as expected, we may give up on trying to read the tea leaves. Back on May 19, we didn't believe Perry was seriously considering a run for president because:

If Perry does allow himself to be persuaded to chase the bandwagons to the White House along with the other big dogs, it would be the biggest flip-flop since John Kerry voted for the $87 billion before he voted against it. After all, Perry stated in November of last year:

"I've made my decision. If I really believe in the 10th amendment, then being a governor of a state is where the action is."

Asked during a GOP gubernatorial debate on Jan. 29 whether he would serve his full four-year term if re-elected, Perry answered that he would "absolutely" as long as the Lord lets him live that long:

"If your intent here is to question where I would want to go any better than being the governor of the state of Texas, that place hasn't been made yet," Perry said.

Perry told the Daily Beast's Andrew Romano just nine months ago that he was "Not going to run for president." Silly us. At the time, we believed Perry to be cut from the same cloth as Sarah Palin, someone who means what they say. But intensive research over the months has informed us that any resemblance between Perry and Palin is purely superficial.

Unlike the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, what Perry says can't be taken to the bank, and there are other significant differences. She's a political reformer; he goes with the flow. She's a small-government Reagan conservative; he's much closer to the GOP establishment than his feud with the Republican Party's Bush wing would lead you to believe. She left Alaska with a $12 billion surplus; he's saddled Texas with twice the debt and doubled state spending on his watch. Rick Perry is a good ol' boy, but the last person we need in the White House is another good ol' boy. Unfortunately, Rick Perry is no Sarah Palin.

Cross-posted from Brazos Valley Pundit

- JP

Iowa GOP Committee excludes Palin & Perry from straw poll

“…I’ve seen Sarah Palin’s people all over this state.”
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Just three weeks ahead of its big Straw Poll, The Iowa GOP State Central Committee has spoken, and the names of Sarah Palin and Rick Perry will not appear on the ballot. Well, you say, that makes sense because neither one is an announced candidate. Fair enough. We can live with that, but please explain why three declared candidates who have decided to snub the straw poll by skipping the Aug. 13 event -- Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich -- were included by the Committee? While you consider that one, here's more on the decision from The Iowa Republican:

Those who reserved space at the Straw Poll were guaranteed to be on the ballot. Candidates who reserved space include: Congresswoman Michelle Bachman, Herman Cain, Congressman Thaddeus McCotter, Congressman Ron Paul, Governor Tim Pawlenty and Senator Rick Santorum.

In addition to those who reserved space, Speaker Newt Gingrich, Governor Jon Huntsman and Governor Mitt Romney were included on the ballot. A write-in option will also be available.

The Iowa Straw Poll rules, including the ballot finalization process, were passed by the State Central Committee at the 2nd quarter meeting. The Iowa GOP extended invites to an exhaustive list of candidates and potential candidates to attend two meetings outlining the rules prior to the land allocation meeting on June 23.

Looking at the individual members of the committee and what horses they have in the race, proves some insight to the committee's thinking. Radio Iowa's O.Kay Henderson took copious notes while the sausage was being made, and reports:

Six announced candidates for 2012 have paid to play in the Straw Poll festivities and if you look at the membership on the State Central Committee, top-Straw-Poll-property-bidder Ron Paul has a heavy influence on the panel with three key campaign staffers (including his campaign manager Drew Ivers) as members of the committee and another committee member has endorsed Paul. Wes Enos, a key organizer on Michele Bachmann’s Iowa campaign, is a member of the state central committee, too. Republican National Committeewoman Kim Lehman has endorsed Rick Santorum.

[...]

Central committee member Monte Shaw made a motion to add the names of Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, and Newt Gingrich. (He listed those names in that order.) Shaw and Republican National Committeeman Steve Scheffler said it was about keeping the Iowa “relevant” in the national debate.

David Chung moved to amend Shaw’s motion to remove the names of Rick Perry and Sarah Palin. He suggested the bar ought to be “you should be a candidate” for POTUS. Another committee member suggested those who want to support those candidates — or any other — can use the “write in” line on the ballot.

[...]

Lehman suggested candidates who have “exploratory” committees or are polling well nationally should be on the ballot. Scheffler said it’s clear that Perry “probably will” run, whereas Christie has said he won’t. “If we don’t include some of these names that are thinking about it, it diminishes the relevancy of our Straw Poll,” Scheffler said. “…I’ve seen Sarah Palin’s people all over this state.”

Another committee member asked if write-in candidate tallies are reported. Strawn, the committee chairman, said yes. Heavens said she was not in favor of putting people’s names on the ballot if they’re not an announced candidate.

[...]

A vote was taken on Chung’s amendment to the Shaw amendment, to take Perry and Palin’s names off the ballot. There was a tie, 5-5 vote as those who work on campaigns abstained. Strawn exercised his chair authority to weigh in, and voted yes, so Perry and Palin are off of Shaw’s amendment/line-up.

Three Ronulans on the Committee? Fascinating. Read O.Kay's full post on the proceedings here.

- JP

AWR Hawkins is right on Palin, not so much on Perry

Rick Perry is no Reagan conservative.
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It's only on the rare occasion that we take issue with an AWR Hawkins opinion. After reading his latest Big Government op-ed, we see that this is one of those occasions:

When Sarah Palin’s “Going Rogue” was released in late 2009, people around the country stood in line for hours to meet her at book signings, and to shake her hand and ask her to run for president in 2012. And this was after the MSM had spent nearly a year and half dragging her and her family through the mud, accusing Palin of every misdeed imaginable, and going out of their way to remind us how unprepared Palin was for the vice presidency (according to MSM standards of course).

[...]

From the release of “Going Rogue” through the November 2010 elections, Palin traveled to Tea Party gatherings around the country and endorsed candidates (43 House candidates, 30 of which won, and 12 Senate candidates, 7 of which won). Following the elections she launched a reality show – “Sarah Palin’s Alaska” – that drew historic levels of viewers and teed liberals off something fierce because it showed Palin using a gun to kill a caribou, a club to kill a fish, and more importantly, using a weekly one-hour program to show liberals how to stand up and fight like a man.

And after the media trashed her for her Tea Party speeches, mocked the candidates she endorsed, and made fun of her reality show, she launched a bus tour that began with a DC motorcycle rally on March 29, 2011, wherein crowds of people gathered round her and begged her to run for president in 2012.

By the way, Palin also endorsed gubernatorial candidates in 2010, one of which was Republican Governor Rick Perry: a true conservative and thus a Tea Party favorite.

Hawkins goes on to praise Perry, citing a Texas economy which is in much better shape than that in the rest of the country and draws employers and job seekers to the land between the Sabine and the Rio Grande like a magnet. Hawkins is so impressed that he says he's hoping for a Palin/Perry 2012 ticket "For 16 Years of Conservative Bliss."

We hate to rain on the man's parade, but the idea of Perry as vice president or, God help us, president is not quite as blissful as it must appear in Hawkins' imagination. First of all, Texas was a low-tax, business-friendly place long before Rick Perry became governor. Also, there are many conservatives down here in the Lone Star State who are less than enamored of our governor right now. Don't get us wrong, Rick Perry is one of the good guys, but there are a few less-than-conservative flies in the Perry ointment. He has dithered on the TSA anti-groping bill, allowing it to die in the Texas legislature, and he rejected the same Arizona immigration legislation which Sarah Palin supported.

But far more troubling are Perry's proclivities for big government and the nanny state. Perry began his push in 2002 for the Trans-Texas Corridor, a super highway one mile wide and 4,000 miles long that was intended to run from Mexico to Canada to facilitate free trade and open borders. For the portion of the route that was to run through Texas, Perry planned to use eminent domain to acquire the right of way for this highway from hell, indicating a disturbing willingness on the governor's part to trample upon public property rights and uproot people from their land. The public outcry over this big government grandiosity was so loud and so prolonged that Perry had to scale it back in 2009 and abandon it entirely in 2010. Also apparently comfortable with being a nanny-stater, Perry did an end run around the Texas Legislature last month and issued a governor's executive order forcing schoolgirls to get vaccinated against the sexually transmitted virus that causes cervical cancer. It doesn't help Perry's squeaky clean image much that Merck & Co., the pharma giant that makes the Gardasil vaccine, is well-connected to the governor in multiple ways.

Finally, be aware that there's a big push on now by the GOP establishment for Perry, and this should throw up a big red warning flag for Reagan conservatives. It's all too reminiscent of the way Republicans, like sheep, lined up behind George W. Bush in 1999. Yes, Bush is another one of the good guys, but he proved by being soft on immigration and not willing to reduce either spending or the size of the federal government that he wasn't the one that real conservatives were looking for. Again, our point here isn't to slam Bush or Perry.

In short, Rick Perry is not a politician who can be relied upon to restore the federal government to the smaller, less intrusive entity the founders envisioned and Sarah Palin has been working for. Perry was certainly preferable in 2010 to Kay Baily Hutchison in the gubernatorial primary and Democrat Bill White in the general election, earning Gov. Palin's endorsement practically by default. He may be a conservative, but unlike Sarah Palin, he's no Reagan conservative. Should she become the GOP presidential nominee, the view from here on the Brazos is that she can do much better for her campaign and for the country should she decide to run for president in 2012.

- JP

The Morning News: Sarah Palin brings political star power to Dallas

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Gov. Palin is in Big D to "Celebrate an evening of hope" tonight:

Sarah Palin, perhaps the hottest commodity in the Republican Party, returns to Dallas today as a potential political kingmaker and a strong contender for the GOP nomination for president.

Local politicians recognize her value. In town for an event sponsored by Heroic Media, a conservative group that helps women with unexpected pregnancies, the former Alaska governor and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee will share the stage with two Texas politicians eyeing a bigger stage.

Gov. Rick Perry , fresh from his thumping of former Houston Mayor Bill White for an unprecedented third full term as governor, will join Palin at the Majestic Theatre in the middle of his tour promoting his new book, Fed Up! Our Fight to Save America from Washington.

Also appearing with the 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate will be Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, a potential candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012, and Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott, who handily won reelection Nov. 2. WBAP radio talk show host Mark Davis, who often fills in for Rush Limbaugh, will be the master of ceremonies.

- JP

Indy ad for Rick Perry: 'Texas Voter'

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Here's an independently-produced (in Houston) ad for Rick Perry, who was endorsed early by Sarah Palin in the race for governor of Texas:


- JP

Texas Poll: Palin 51, Obama 36

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On this blog we often say that our great state is Sarah Palin country. Now we have some hard research to back that statement up. According to the Annual Texas Interested Citizens Survey, an opinion poll conducted by Lighthouse Opinion Polling & Research of Fort Worth this month, Gov. Palin would thrash Barack Obama among Texas voters by a margin of 15 points if that hypothetical matchup were held today. Texans prefer Palin to the president, 51 percent to 36 percent.

Commissioned by the Texas Civil Justice League, Texas Medical Association and the Texas Farm Bureau, the poll surveyed 1,200 Texans spread proportionately across all of the state's regions and media markets. Only Lone Star State citizens who voted in 2006 or 2008 were sampled.

Gov. Rick Perry is maintaining an 11-point lead over Democrat Bill White at 48 percent to 37 percent, with 11 percent undecided and the remainder going to minor-party candidates:

It shows Perry with a 15-point advantage in the Houston media market, tied in Dallas and ahead in every other geographic area except for Austin and the border.

[...]

Down the ballot, Republicans are — according to this survey — trouncing Democrats. They've got Republican David Dewhurst being Democrat Linda Chavez-Thompson by 35 percentage points (55-20) in the race for lieutenant governor, Attorney General Greg Abbott beating Democrat Barbara Ann Radnofsky by 38 points in that race (58-23), and Republican Eva Guzman ahead of Democrat Blake Bailey in the race for a spot on the Texas Supreme Court by a 37-25 margin.

The top issues on the minds of Texas voters are illegal immigration (31 percent), then jobs (25 percent) and education, (14 percent).

The poll was conducted by telephone October 15 through 17 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.9 percent. Partial crosstabs, in PDF format, are here.

h/t: Bryan Preston

- JP

Kelso: Perry, Republicans getting all the women (voters)

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Austin American-Statesman columnist John Kelso notices a tectonic shift in voting habits here in the Lone State State:

You know Texas Democrats and their candidate for governor, Bill White, are in deep doo-doo when they can't even hold the women's vote.

See, generally, women have tended to vote for Democrats because Democrats are seen as the soft and squishy people, the nurturers, the protectors, the kind of guys who are actually glad there's a baby changing station in the men's room, the caregivers, the poets, the men who could sit through Sex and the City without wanting to kill somebody, the men who know yoga (as opposed to the men who quote Yogi Berra) -- the kind of guys who don't throw a whiskey bottle through a TV set on Sunday afternoon when they have to miss part of the Cowboys game to change a diaper.

But here it is, less than a month away from the election (praise God), and a poll shows that 50 percent of female likely voters would cast their ballots for Gov. Rick Perry, the Republican, and only 40 percent would pick Bill White, the Democrat.

That Republicans are getting the women is considered unusual. The poll didn't say if size was a factor. But there's this: When Republican women say bigger is better, they're talking about the old man's American Express limit. Maybe that's the attraction.

No, seriously, pollster Mickey Blum says it might be the first time she's seen more women than men backing the Republican. Maybe the men are being out-Republicaned by the women in Texas because of all the male wimp computer programmers moving here from Marin County.

But Bill White, not exactly Mr. Excitement, may be the main reason for this transition.

But then again, John, it may be that "Mama Grizzly" thing. Texas women, like many of their sisters across the country are just palin... er, plain fed up with the tax-and-spend Democrats and their leftist agenda.

Sarah Palin endorsed Gov. Perry way back in early 2009, and she campaigned with him at a Houston area rally a year later.

- JP

Houston Chronicle: Latest polls show Perry poised for re-election

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R.G. Ratcliffe, the Houston Chronicle's Austin Bureau Chief, reports that three new polls show Texas Governor Rick Perry on the threshold of re-election to a third term while support for former Houston Mayor Bill White remains stuck in the low forties and high thirties:

Rice University political scientist Mark Jones said White is stuck at the base Democratic vote because he has been unable to make a policy or message issue stick to Perry as a negative.

"At this point, I don't see anything White can do," Jones said.

[...]

University of Texas political scientist Bruce Buchanan said it is a tough year for any Democrat to defeat a Republican incumbent like Perry. He said White has run too many "flags up the flagpole" without having an over-arching message on why voters need to boot Perry out of office.

"The trend is in the wrong direction for White," Buchanan said. "The opportunity clock is ticking and time is running out."

Two of the polls have Perry with 50 percent or more support of the likely voters, while the third poll has him at 48 percent support but with victory within the survey's margin of error.

White had 43 percent support in two of the surveys and 36 percent in the third.

The worst news for White was that none of the polls had enough undecided voters for him to reach a majority without a major change in the election's dynamics.
A plurality victory?

To win, White will have to take voters away from Perry or hope that third party candidates Libertarian Kathie Glass and Green Party candidate Deb Shafto draw enough votes to make a plurality victory possible.

The surveys:

Texas Lyceum/University of Texas, Sept. 22-30: Perry, 48 percent; White, 43 percent.

Belo/Public Strategies, Sept. 26-Oct.2: Perry 50 percent; White, 36 percent.

Rasmussen Reports, Oct. 6: Perry, 53 percent; White, 42 percent. Rasmussen moved the race from leans GOP to solid GOP.

A survey conducted for the Houston Chronicle/San Antonio Express-News and three other Texas newspapers in mid September showed Perry leading with 46 percent to White's 39 percent.

Former GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin endorsed Perry for re-election early in 2009, calling him the "true conservative" in the race for governor of the Lone Star state. Perry easily won the Texas Republican primary, claiming 51 percent of the vote to Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's 30 percent and 19 percent for former Wharton County GOP Chairwoman Debra Medina.

- JP

Perry continues to lead in Texas race for governor

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The race for governor in Texas has not changed significantly since the GOP's 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin campaigned in Cypress for incumbent Rick Perry in February, according to a new poll conducted for the Houston Chronicle and four other state newspapers. Former Houston mayor Bill White, a Democrat, has been unable to gain any traction against Republican Perry largely because voters remain dissatisfied with President Obama and believe that Perry has helped save the Texas economy, according to political analysts:

Perry leads with 46 percent support to 39 percent for White, with Libertarian candidate Kathie Glass trailing at 4 percent among likely voters; 11 percent were undecided.

Green Party candidate Deb Shafto had less than 1 percent support.

"It's not an insurmountable lead," said pollster Micheline Blum, but "he certainly looks like he's headed for another term. … Perry has probably both the votes and the enthusiasm behind him."

Despite White and his allies spending millions of dollars on television ads attacking Perry this summer, Blum said the race has remained essentially unchanged since February.

Blum said voters seem to have made up their minds early, and she sees little volatility in the race. Blum said the voters who are undecided probably will not cast a ballot Nov. 2.

The enthusiasm of Republican voters is dramatic. Among registered voters who answered the survey, Republicans held an advantage of 9 percentage points — roughly typical of the vote in recent elections.

Among those who said they are likely to vote, the Republican advantage jumped to 18 percentage points over Democrats.

[...]

Perry and White are in almost a dead heat in Houston and San Antonio. Perry is drubbing White in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, with a lead of more than 30 percentage points in those cities. White holds a 7-point lead in Austin.

The two are even in urban areas, but Perry has an almost 11-percentage-point lead in non-urban areas.

[...]

Perry holds a 3-percentage-point lead over White among men and a 10-point advantage among women. Blum said that may reflect women viewing Perry as the candidate most likely to bring about economic security.

The telephone survey was conducted Sept. 15-22 using a random sample of both registered and likely voters, by Blum & Weprin for the Houston Chronicle, the San Antonio Express-News, the Austin American-Statesman and The Dallas Morning News.

- JP

Geraghty: Whatever Happened to Bill White?

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At NRO's Campaign Spot blog, Jim Geraghty has noticed that Bill White seems to have dropped off the radar screen:

Earlier this year, you heard a lot of buzz about former Houston mayor Bill White’s chances to beat Texas governor Rick Perry, a win that would undoubtedly invigorate Democrats and persuade them that they can win, with the right candidates, even in the reddest parts of the country.

Well, Jim, from our vantage point down here on the Brazos, we can assure you all that buzz was just the sound of the more liberal elements of the Texas media stuck on the spin cycle for their beloved Democrat Party. Geraghty quotes the liberal Houston Chronicle, which was engaged in some wishful thinking when it fantasized:

“The former Houston mayor arguably is the strongest gubernatorial candidate Democrats have nominated since Ann Richards in 1990.”

Geraghty checked the poll numbers and found that, except for a June PPP outlier, Gov. Rick Perry's lead has consistently been 10 points or more ahead of White since -- with some help from Sarah Palin in the form of an endorsement and a key campaign appearance in the Houston area at Cypress -- Perry convincingly defeated U.S. Sen. Kay Baily Hutchison for the GOP gubernatorial nomination:

So maybe this race won’t be so competitive after all.

It never was. Though the major newspapers in Texas all lean liberal in their editorial points of view, Texas is conservative country. And no matter how many Democrats dwell in the big state's big cities, they are outnumbered by conservatives in the rural areas and not-so-gigantic cities and smaller towns. And the Lone Star State state has a bunch of those smaller towns.

God bless Texas!

- JP