Scott Conroy: Gingrich May Have Inside Track on Palin's Endorsement

"They speak very favorably of Newt and... his credentials as compared to Perry and Romney."
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It's no secret that most of the GOP candidates for president have been phoning Wasilla since October 5, hoping to get Sarah Palin's endorsement. Scott Conroy reveals at RealClearPolitics that while none of them have yet secured her backing, Newt Gingrich may be the candidate with the best shot at getting the nod from the former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate:

While Palin has characteristically kept her cards close to her chest, advisers suggest that the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee is likely to endorse before someone emerges as the inevitable nominee -- and that Newt Gingrich appears to be best-positioned to secure her support.

"They speak very favorably of Newt and what they see as his credentials as compared to Perry and Romney," one member of Palin's inner circle said of the former Alaska governor and her husband, Todd, who has long served as her unofficial chief adviser.

Gingrich has been particularly effusive in expressing his admiration for Palin over the last few months, and she has returned the favor by heaping praise on the former House speaker.

[...]

Though Gingrich is far from an ideal candidate to Palin and her advisers, his rivals may carry even more baggage in her eyes.

[More]

Conroy points out that the aides who are his sources "emphasized that while Gingrich currently appears to be the front-runner for Palin’s endorsement, her thinking could change."

- JP

Sarah Palin comes to Iowa to bury Perry, not to endorse him

With apologies to William Shakespeare:
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Friends, Republicans, countrymen, lend me your ears;
I come to bury Perry, not to endorse him.
The evil that men do lives after them;
The good is oft interred with their bones;
So let it be with Perry. The noble Bachmann
Hath told you Perry is ambitious:
If it were so, it was a grievous fault;
And grievously hath Perry answer'd it.
Here, under leave of Bachmann and the rest, —
For Bachmann is an honorable Republican;
So are they all, all honorable Republicans, —
Come I to speak in Perry's political funeral.
He was my friend, faithful and just to a degree:
But Bachmann says he was ambitious;
And Bachmann is an honorable Republican.
According to Scott Conroy, national political reporter for RealClearPolitics, Gov. Palin will make it clear that she if enters the presidential race later this month she will "vociferously" challenge Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s self-created image of solidarity with the tea party movement:

In her speech at the bucolic National Balloon Classic field in Indianola, Palin will lean on loaded phrases like “crony capitalism” and “permanent political class” in laying out her view of the U.S. political system’s deep-rooted ills, according to a source close to Palin and familiar with the content of the speech.

Though she will not call Perry out by name, Palin’s carefully couched rhetoric will leave the impression that she may soon draw more overt attention to one of the Texan’s potential vulnerabilities as a candidate: his history of doling out plum positions and other benefits to generous campaign donors during his nearly 11-year tenure as the nation’s longest serving governor.

“Part of what she’s going to be addressing is the frustration that many Americans feel that nothing gets done in Washington, D.C.,” a Palin source told RealClearPolitics. “We know that we have a debt problem and that we need to rein in government waste, and yet nothing ever gets done. Why is that? What special interests are involved?”

Palin’s speech before what will likely be one of the largest crowds of the campaign season to date will come on the third anniversary of her 2008 Republican convention address in the Twin Cities, when she accepted the vice presidential nomination in an almost universally acclaimed speaking performance.

In another likely indication that she still has her sights set on a White House run, Palin will also tout her record as governor of Alaska, particularly in ushering in what an aide described as “sudden and relentless reform” to state government.

[More]

Cry Havoc! and let slip the dogs of war.
- JP

Rewind: Open Doors

"Throughout her whole career, she has always been underestimated."
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The exact quote from Gov. Palin was, "And if there is an open door in '12 or four years later, and if it is something that is going to be good for my family, for my state, for my nation, an opportunity for me, then I'll plow through that door." She made the comment in an interview with Greta Van Susteren November 10, 2008.

But Scott Conroy paraphrased it well enough in this appearance he made with Shushannah Walshe on The O'Reilly Factor nearly a year later:


h/t: Free Republic

- JP

Scott Conroy: Palin Lays Out What Her Campaign Would Look Like

"It would be unconventional and very grass-roots. Very grass-roots."
*
RealClearPolitics' Scott Conroy observes that Gov. Sarah Palin today showed "that she has done some serious thinking about her potential strategy," should she decide to get into the 2012 presidential race. Conroy asked Gov. Palin what kind of campaign she would run. She answered:

“Each campaign that I’ve ever run in these 20 years of elected office have been kind of unconventional -- right, Todd? We’ve always been outspent two to one, 10 to one, five to one; never won any polls heading into election night but usually won the election. So it would be unconventional and very grass-roots. Very grass-roots. And I wouldn’t be out there looking for hires out of that political bubble that seem to result in the same old ideas, the same old talking points, the things that Americans get so sick and tired of hearing and kind of suffering through.

“You know, we want new. We want new energy. We want conviction and passion and candidness -- even if through that candidness you make mistakes and you say things like ‘the executive power in Texas is different than the executive power in Alaska.’ . . . I’m just saying that candidness, not fearing so much what the interpretation is going to be when it comes to the comments and positions you’re articulating but just speaking from the heart and saying, ‘Here’s where I think America needs to head, and here’s how I think we can turn the economy around, and here’s what I’ve done in the past to show you truly a foundation of where my beliefs come from of what works in a small town, in a state, in a big industry like oil and gas -- what is it that can be done to turn things around.’ I’ll express that and not fearing what the ramifications of the expressions would be.”

[More]

- JP

Washington Unplugged: Is Palin 2012 'more method than madness?'

She's been "immersing herself in policy" and is "a great retail politician."
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On "Washington Unplugged," CBS News' Rob Hendin and Real Clear Politics political reporter Scott Conroy discuss the prospect of Gov. Palin entering the 2012 Republican presidential field:


- JP

Scott Conroy: Palin to Keynote Tea Party Rally in Iowa

"...she's very, very popular here, and it didn't hurt at all when she introduced her movie in Pella."
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In a move which Scott Conroy of RealClearPolitics interprets as a sign that Sarah Palin intends to make a run for the White House, the former Alaska governor and GOP vice presidential candidate has accepted an invitation to keynote a Tea Party rally in Waukee, Iowa, on Sept. 3:

The Labor Day weekend visit to the nation's first voting state comes after Palin indicated during an appearance on Fox News earlier this month that she would make her decision about whether to launch a campaign in August or September.

All signs now point to September as the month when Palin would throw her hat into the ring, as logistical concerns ranging from fundraising to getting her name on the ballot in various states would likely preclude further delay.

Many prominent political analysts and Republican operatives have expressed skepticism that Palin is seriously considering a presidential bid, since she has not taken many of the steps that candidates traditionally take before jumping into the race, such as signing early-state consultants, contacting key powerbrokers and boosting their travel schedules.

But Palin has a long history of shunning the Republican Party machinery and taking an unconventional approach to campaigns -- a mind-set that appears to have been in play throughout the past several months.

Palin's latest appearance in Iowa will come just two days after "The Undefeated," a documentary film spotlighting her accomplishments in Alaska, will be released on Pay-Per-View and video-on-demand. In the film, Palin is portrayed as a continual thorn in the Republican establishment's side. And it is the GOP, rather than the Democratic Party, that garners the better part of the movie's scorn.

If Palin were to announce a White House run, the theme of her campaign would almost certainly focus on resisting the ingrained political culture and what she sees as being wrong with the status quo, and much of the Republican Party itself, in addition to continuing to offer one of the most strident contrasts to President Obama's policies.
The outdoor rally on the first Saturday in September will take place at a field in Waukee, located just outside of Des Moines, and will be hosted by the Tea Party of America -- an Iowa-based political action committee that was founded in May.

The midday affair will be the new group's kickoff event and is sure to generate a large crowd and massive media attention.

[More]

Game on!

- JP

RCP: Devoted Volunteers Build Foundation for Palin in Iowa

Iowa Rep. Walt Rogers says that he would support Palin if she were to run.
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A nice write-up for O4P by Scott Conroy at RealClearPolitics this morning:

Last December, Michelle McCormick penned a letter to Sarah Palin, addressed it to her political action committee, and dropped it in the mail.

An unassuming 28-year-old north Texan who works in the oil and gas industry, McCormick had experienced a family crisis similar to the one that had befallen Palin's family when the former Alaska governor's daughter Bristol became pregnant in 2008. McCormick wanted to let Palin know that how the vice presidential candidate handled the situation while in the national spotlight helped guide McCormick through her own family difficulties.

McCormick didn't harbor much hope that she would get a response, but about three weeks later she received a personal reply from Palin.

Six months later, McCormick now spends every weekend (and an increasing number of weekdays) in the nation's first voting state of Iowa attending GOP Central Committee meetings, collecting names of activists in counties across the state, and doing other volunteer organizing in advance of a Palin presidential campaign that she considers inevitable.

"If she was willing to take the time to respond to somebody who is a nobody in Texas, that just shows me what kind of heart she has," McCormick told RCP. "She's a very high-profile individual, and she's got a lot of people making demands on her, and I thought this is someone I really want to help get into the White House."

McCormick is one of the more devoted members of a dedicated nationwide group called Organize4Palin, in which an all-volunteer effort is setting the groundwork for a Palin presidential launch that its members believe is only a matter of time.

[More]

Outstanding work in Iowa, O4P!

- JP

Conroy: Palin Not Reaching Out to Key Iowans Ahead of Visit

Keeping it "as low key as possible"
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Contradicting an earlier Politico report that Team Palin was setting up meeting with Iowa activists, Scott Conroy says at RealClearPolitics that Gov. Palin is instead taking a low-key approach with her Tuesday visit to the first-in-the-nation primary state:

The former Alaska governor is slated to arrive in the small Iowa town of Pella on Tuesday to attend the premiere of "The Undefeated" -- a flattering documentary that highlights her accomplishments in office and bangs the drum for a potential insurgent campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. Though she is never lacking for attention, Palin's trip figures to be scrutinized especially closely, since it will mark her first appearance this year in the nation's first voting state.

Politico reported on Monday that Palin aides were reaching out to Iowa operatives and activists to set up meetings during her visit, citing Chuck Laudner, a former Iowa GOP executive director. But Laudner told RCP that he did not have a private meeting scheduled with Palin and that no one who works for the former governor had made contact with him.

Laudner said that he received an invitation to attend the festivities surrounding the movie premiere from Peter Singleton, a California native who moved to Iowa several months ago to help organize in the state in advance of a possible Palin presidential run. Singleton is acting on his own and is not a Palin aide but has often been confused for one as he has made his presence known across the state.

"Putting me on this list doesn't really mean much to me," Laudner told RCP. "I'm on a list to go to this event, but I didn't expect there was going to be high drama... He just said be there, and I said OK."

For his part, Singleton confirmed to RCP that he has not been working with the Palin camp.

"If Governor Palin was setting up meetings, she wouldn't set them up with me," Singleton said. "Not a single activist I've talked with has said anything about that. . . . I'm not affiliated with the Palin organization. I invited Chuck because he's a really great friend and a really nice guy."

[More]

After Politico's erroneous story, Sarah Palin tweeted:

*sigh* media making things up again MT @POLITICO2012: Sarah Palin reaching out to IOWA operatives http://politi.co/j9kQko by@maghabepolitico

Several other key GOP operatives in Iowa -- including state GOP Chairman Matt Strawn, Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition President Steve Scheffler and aides to Gov. Terry Branstad -- informed RCP that they had not been contacted by Gov. Palin's team in advance of Tuesday's visit.

- JP

Conroy: Hey, perhaps Sarah Palin really is undecided about running

She polls near the top of the Republican field both nationally and in Iowa.
*
RealClearPolitics political reporter Scott Conroy's takeaway from covering the first leg of Gov. Palin's nationwide bus tour is though the 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate may be genuinely undecided about a 2012 presidential run, she is without a doubt having fun:

At just about every stop she made along her East Coast jaunt, the former Alaska governor took in the scenery, chatted amiably with locals, signed autographs and always seemed to have a smile on her face while she was doing it. And whenever members of the "lamestream media" shoved audio recorders and video cameras in her face, Palin cheerfully and thoroughly answered our questions, often lingering far longer than her small team of aides and daughter Piper would have liked.

[...]

But perhaps there is a simple answer to whether Palin will run that neither her most ardent fans nor her inside-the-Beltway critics seem to fathom: She truly hasn't decided yet.

Each time Palin was asked The Question last week, she insisted -- with a thinly veiled exasperation missing during her answers to other queries -- that her mind was not yet made up. Several close Palin associates, in recent private conversations with RCP, have said the same thing.

[...]

Throughout her career, she has embraced the role of the underdog, and anyone who spent significant time around her over the past week would be hard-pressed to escape the perception that she is indeed inclined to run. Her ultimate decision, as she herself has said, will likely be determined by where her family comes down on the matter.

Though he said that he is "not pushing her either way," Todd Palin -- Sarah's husband and also her closest adviser -- offered a revealing indicator of where his own thinking stood during a brief interaction with reporters in Pennsylvania last week.

"There are pros and cons, of course, but this country -- we have to get back on the right track," he said. "This family has been tested. When people talk about ‘She was just plucked up out of Wasilla,' you have to look at her career. Every step in her career is another step for the family, and we were prepared."

[More]

The big question should have a answer soon. Gov. Palin has said in several recent interviews that her decision will come in a matter of weeks.

- JP

RCP: Palin Plans to Meet Key Early-State Leaders

It is increasingly apparent that she is seriously interested in the job.
*
For months now, the media has assured us that Sarah Palin cannot be seriously considering a 2012 run for president because she has not taken certain steps essential to mounting a presidential challenge. These include building a staff, meeting and greeting voters in the early primary states and meeting with elected and unelected officials in those same states.

Just three months ago, Gov. Palin hired Michael Glassner as her chief of staff, a move followed two months later by bringing Hoover Institution Fellow Peter Schweizer on board as foreign policy advisor. Just days before she launched her One Nation Tour, Gov. Palin reactivated event planners Jason Recher and Doug McMarlin. On the tour, the former GOP vice presidential candidate has conducted a virtual seminar on retail politics, meeting and greeting people every time the bus stopped, shaking hands, signing autographs, posing for photographs, engaging in conversation and passing out copies of the Constitution.

Despite all of these tell tale signs and a few others, such know-it-alls as Charles Krauthammer and Dick Morris have maintained that she's not running. These people couldn't be more in denial if they were standing waist deep in the middle of a river in Egypt. The refusal of such pompous pundits to wake up and smell the coffee prompted RealClearPolitics political reporter Scott Conroy to tweet,

"I predict if Palin announces her candidacy, there will still be people on TV giving reasons why she won't run."

Indeed. By sticking their fingers in their ears and shouting, "I can't hear Sarah running," Krauthammer, Morris et al cannot hear the sound of that other shoe pounding the ground, although they will soon feel its impact.

If meeting with Granite State Republicans at a clambake Thursday isn't compelling enough evidence for the naysayers, her breakfast with Sen Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) and her comments afterward should finally raise the flag. Conroy reports:

The former Alaska governor had purposely steered clear of high-profile Republicans on the first leg of her nationwide bus tour this week, but that changed suddenly on Friday morning when she had coffee here at The Golden Egg Diner with New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte.

Palin endorsed Ayotte during her hard-fought primary battle last July, and in a brief interaction with reporters here, the former Republican vice presidential nominee indicated that she was not yet finished making the rounds with key GOP officials to whom she lent her support during the 2010 midterms.

"I just heard from Nikki Haley the other day in South Carolina, and she'd love for us to hit her state, too," Palin said of the first-term South Carolina governor to whom she provided critical backing last year.

Asked if she also intended to meet with Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad during her impending trip to the nation's first presidential voting state, Palin told RealClearPolitics, "I endorsed him, too, early on, so yes."

An aide to Branstad told RCP that Palin has not yet reached out to the Iowa governor.

Palin's eagerness to talk about her outreach to these three key early-state leaders is yet another indicator that she is earnestly contemplating a presidential campaign -- a decision that she may put off until as late as October.

Palin said that in addition to her impending visits to Iowa and South Carolina, she also now intends to take her bus tour to the West Coast.

[More]

The denier can continue to deny, but the longer they do so, the more foolish they appear to be. They can continue to make ludicrous pontifications, as did Krauthammer when he said Gov. Palin won't get into the race and shouldn't because, he claimed, it's Michele Bachmann's turn. When has it ever been a U.S. Representative's "turn" to be any political party's presidential nominee? With all due respect to the Rep. Bachmann, only one sitting Congressman has ever been elected president, and that was James Garfield in 1880. But none of the antics of the punditocracy can hide the obvious. Sarah Palin has taken and continues to take the steps necessary to challenge her party for its presidential nomination.

- JP

RCP: Sarah Palin to Visit S.C. as Part of Early-State Trifecta

"To me, an American is an American, no matter what their primary election dates are."
*
RCP national political reporter Scott Conroy says RealClearPolitics has learned that Gov. Sarah Palin will visit South Carolina later this month as part of her One Nation bus tour. The Palmetto State presidential primary in January is traditionally the first to be held among the southern states and the third major GOP primary in the nation:

RCP has learned that she is purposefully bypassing meetings with local party leadership as she works to cultivate her image as an "anti-politician," in anticipation of a wildly unconventional presidential run.

[...]

During her political rise in Alaska, Palin had several high-profile dust-ups with members of the state GOP establishment, which left an indelible mark on her psyche and have made her resistant to what she views as the trappings of party machinery.

Palin won accolades in Alaska when she blew the whistle on a state party chairman who had committed ethics violations, and she subsequently took on incumbent GOP Republican Gov. Frank Murkowski during her successful 2006 gubernatorial primary run, in which she was opposed by most members of the party apparatus.

Palin has shown a deep desire to avoid direct participation in the traditional machinations of Republican Party politics ever since, and she is showing no signs of changing a strategy that has repeatedly paid dividends.

"I figure that politicians in office are really busy and they don't need to be bothered by someone just knocking on their door," Palin told RCP.

Following her current "One Nation" tour of the Northeast, Palin will next journey to the Midwest, where Iowa will be front and center.

[...]

During the third leg of her tour, Palin will travel to South Carolina and may also appear at the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans, where several other current and potential GOP White House hopefuls are scheduled to speak.

[More]

Gov. Palin will tour Ellis Island this morning before her bus tour continues on to New England. It is widely anticipated that she will stop in Boston, where colonists dumped the British's tea into the Boston Harbror in 1773, on her way to the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire later this week.

- JP

Gov. Palin: Eliminate All Energy Subsidies

"Bottom line, we can't afford it."
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In response to a reporter's question, Sarah Palin stated Tuesday that she is in favor of eliminating all energy subsidies, not just federal support of ethanol, a key issue for Iowa and other farm states of the American Midwest, especially when viewed in the context of the approaching presidential primaries. Scott Conroy has the story at RealClearPolitics:

"I think that all of our energy subsidies need to be re-looked at today and eliminated," Palin told RCP during a quick stop at a coffee shop in this picturesque town tucked into the south-central Pennsylvania countryside. "And we need to make sure that we're investing and allowing our businesses to invest in reliable energy products right now that aren't going to necessitate subsidies because, bottom line, we can't afford it."

The Palin position goes one step further than that of former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty who has spoken out against federal ethanol subsidies and the polar opposite of the position taken by former Massachusetts Gov Mitt Romney, who said last week that he supports ethanol subsidies:

But Palin differs, saying, "We've got to allow the free market to dictate what's most efficient and economical for our nation's economy. No, at this time, our country can't afford the subsidies. Before, though, we even start arguing about some of these domestic subsidies that need to be eliminated -- should be -- we need to look at ending subsidies and loans to foreign countries and their energy production that we're relying on, like Brazil."

[More]

If Gov. Palin runs for president, energy matters will likely be her signature issues. she would be able to campaign on her record as governor of Alaska, where she restructured oil taxes and initiated a major natural gas pipeline project.

- JP

Confirmed: Sarah Palin to Visit Iowa (Updated)

"Could Palin leave some of the less charismatic candidates in the dust?"
*
The Daily Beast's Shushannah Walshe wrote this morning:

According to a source with knowledge of Palin’s operation and thinking, keep a careful eye on how long the tour lasts, because it is intended as a way to test the presidential waters. If the road trip ends abruptly, it’s a sign she didn’t get the enthusiastic responses she believes she needs to launch a campaign. If the tour heads to regions outside of the Northeast like Iowa and South Carolina that, the source says, is a “big indicator” that Palin will pull the trigger.

If Ms. Walshe's source is right, and if RCP's Scott Conroy's sources are right, then Gov. Palin just fired a round and hit the target dead center:

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will travel to Iowa next month as part of her nationwide bus tour, two sources with direct knowledge of the plan told RealClearPolitics.

Palin's trip to the nation's first voting state -- where she has not yet set foot this year --will further escalate the already feverish speculation that she is leaning toward a White House run.

Though Palin has insisted that her "One Nation" bus tour -- being kicked off from Washington over the holiday weekend -- is intended merely to "highlight America's foundation," RCP has learned that the road trip was designed as a test run to find out whether she can execute a decidedly unconventional campaign game plan.

Palin -- and especially her husband, Todd -- is said to be leaning toward running. But multiple sources said that their foremost remaining concern was whether it would be logistically feasible for their large family to hit the road together for the next several months in a prospective campaign that would rely heavily on bus travel.

The answer to that question will play a critical role in how the 2012 race develops.

[...]

A political Merry Prankster, Palin clearly relishes her unique ability to confound and surprise her prospective opponents, as she test-drives a possible presidential run that she and her team -- with a discernible wink -- have publicly billed as something akin to a mere sightseeing trip.

[More]

This game is soooo on...

Update: Gov. Palin confirmed to CNN Monday that that her "One Nation" bus tour will roll across the key presidential primary state of Iowa:

"I'm sure at some point I will be going to Iowa," Palin said during a visit to Fort McHenry in Baltimore. "At some point."

The comments come on the heels of a RealClearPolitics website story that said Palin is planning a visit to Iowa in June, the same month a documentary about her rise to power is set to debut in the Hawkeye State.

[More]

Her tour through Iowa would be her first trip to The Hawkeye State since she made a book tour stop there in December. The governor's most recent speaking engagement in the state was a fund-raising dinner for the Iowa GOP last September.

- JP

Palin Film Premiere: Prelude to a Presidential Run?

"The Undefeated"
*
Real Clear Politics' national political reporter Scott Conroy has the story of what could be Sarah Palin's secret weapon for launching a 2012 presidential campaign:

Shortly after Republicans swept last November to a historic victory in which Sarah Palin was credited with playing a central role, the former Alaska governor pulled aside her close aide, Rebecca Mansour, to discuss a hush-hush assignment: Reach out to conservative filmmaker Stephen K. Bannon with a request. Ask him if he would make a series of videos extolling Palin's governorship and laying to rest lingering questions about her controversial decision to resign from office with a year-and-a-half left in her first term. It was this abdication, Palin knew, that had made her damaged goods in the eyes of some Republicans who once were eager to get behind her potential 2012 presidential campaign.

The response was more positive than Palin could have hoped for. He'd make a feature-length movie, Bannon told Mansour, and he insisted upon taking complete control and financing it himself -- to the tune of $1 million.

The fruits of that initial conversation are now complete. The result is a two-hour-long, sweeping epic, a rough cut of which Bannon screened privately for Sarah and Todd Palin last Wednesday in Arizona, where Alaska's most famous couple has been rumored to have purchased a new home. When it premieres in Iowa next month, the film is poised to serve as a galvanizing prelude to Palin's prospective presidential campaign -- an unconventional reintroduction to the nation that she and her political team have spent months eagerly anticipating, even as Beltway Republicans have largely concluded that she won't run.

[...]

If she does decide to run, "The Undefeated" will be the key element to her initial coming-out party. The film's impending release -- and the frenzied media attention that it is sure to generate -- will serve as a vivid wake-up call that despite the many obstacles in front of her, Palin's entry into the race would turn the campaign on its head in an instant, just as it did in 2008.

As she mulls her decision in the coming weeks, the other Republican candidates in the field will be left to prepare for a hibernating grizzly who appears poised to rise up once again.

[More]

"If there be trouble, let it be in my day that my child may have peace." - Thomas Paine

h/t: Ron Devito

- JP

Scott Conroy on the futility of second guessing Sarah Palin

She has consistently exceeded her critics' expectations
*
It's really quite amusing to watch the punditocracy as they try to predict what Gov. Palin will do next, and they get it wrong most every time. At RealClearPolitics, Scott Conroy points out that those who have made assumptions that Sarahcuda is not likely to run for the White House in 2012 are ignoring several critical factors:

Sarah Palin has never done things the traditional way; she built her career on challenging political powerbrokers rather than courting them; and she has long demonstrated an uncanny self-confidence and grand ambitions for her own life that have confounded critics at every turn.

"She does not follow the typical playbook," Alaska Republican pollster Dave Dittman said. "Both the RNC and the DNC have a playbook, which is for the most part pretty predictable. And she's just writing a whole new book."

Dittman recalled that when Palin was deciding whether to run for governor in 2005, many Alaska Republicans correctly pegged her as a rising star but were unconvinced that she could win a primary contest to unseat incumbent GOP Governor Frank Murkowski. Although the odds were stacked against the relatively unknown former Mayor of Wasilla, and the party establishment voices were many and vocal in their discouragement, Palin ignored them.

"There were other people who'd announced they were going to run, and people were saying to her, ‘Why don't you run for lieutenant governor,' because that was the predictable thing-that she'd run behind John Binkley, who was a known individual," Dittman said. "And her response was, ‘Why doesn't he run for lieutenant governor?'"

Her decision to take on a veteran incumbent from her own party was emblematic of a natural aversion to Republican machinery - and following normal conventions -- that Palin has demonstrated throughout her career.

From her whistleblowing of ethical lapses committed by Alaska Republican Party chairman Randy Ruedrich before her gubernatorial run to her frequent battles with members of her own party in the Alaska state legislature and beyond, Palin has relished opportunities to take on the GOP powers-that-be. And time and again she has exceeded her critics' expectations as she has embraced seemingly every chance she has gotten to grow her star power.

[More]

Conroy takes the most prudent approach. Why not just listen to what Sarah Palin herself has said on the matter? "Actually, she gave a reply when asked on Fox News that makes a lot of sense. She's seeing how the field shapes up before making her final decision."

- JP

Podcast: Scott Conroy talks about Sarah Palin and Iowa

*
On the Thursday edition of the "Coffee & Markets" podcast, The New Ledger's Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech talk to Scott Conroy of RealClearPolitics about his report on Team Palin testing the waters in Iowa.

You can listen to the podcast here.

- JP

Gov. Palin hopes to visit Israel, UK

*
Now that the 2010 elections is history, Sarah Palin and her aides are turning their attention to what will be her next act on the political stage. An article for Real Clear Politics by Scott Conroy previews scenes such as travel abroad, a focus on issues and the prospect of a run for the White House:

Since resigning from office, Palin has proven time and again the primacy of her influence in the Republican Party, setting the tone and defining the parameters on issues ranging from health care to monetary policy. And she has done it by shattering the traditional rules of communication, using Twitter, Facebook, and her regular appearances on Fox News and conservative radio to bypass the traditional media to whom she and her staff have taken a special delight in deriding.

[...]

Now that the midterms are over and the campaign before the presidential campaign has begun, Palin is making some adjustments, fully aware that she cannot tweet, Facebook post, and Sean Hannity her way to the White House. She recently granted extensive interviews to the New York Times and ABC News, and her SarahPAC staff intends to make a more concerted effort to highlight to the media her prepared remarks on the frequent policy speeches she gives.

Meanwhile, Palin's ratings-shattering TLC show, "Sarah Palin's Alaska," will continue to show millions of American homes the kinder, gentler side of Palin's personality each Sunday night for the next seven weeks.

Palin's outsized influence on the midterm elections and her most recent pronouncements about her presidential intentions have caused the D.C. narrative to shift in recent weeks, as Beltway logic now holds that Palin is indeed seriously interested in running for president and could be a strong contender to win the Republican nomination.

[...]

A visit to Israel is high on Palin's current to-do list, and her staff is still hoping to arrange a trip for her to meet with one of her political heroines, former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.

Palin has taken a particular interest in the European debt crisis as of late, and SarahPAC recently hired Joshua Livestro - a Dutch newspaper columnist who has also contributed to the pro-Palin web site Conservatives4Palin.com - to research the topic for Palin on a freelance basis.

Palin's second book, America By Heart, will be released on Tuesday and is a near shoo-in to join her first title, Going Rogue, as a quick bestseller. Unlike Going Rogue's biographical focus, Palin's new book is mostly philosophical in nature and reads as a series of essays on well-travelled topics ranging from the role of faith in the public sphere to the concept of American exceptionalism.

[...]

Palin's challenges remain numerous as she comes to a decision on whether to run for president. If the answer is indeed "yes," one of her first big moves will be planning the official announcement of her campaign-a date that one Palin confidante privately agreed will likely come later in 2011, after her lesser known opponents launch their own runs and she can assess the field.

[More]

- JP

RCP: Palin Points to 'Strange Doings' With WH's Rouse

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This is mostly old news to Gov. Palin's supporters, but Scott Conroy's Real Clear Politics report should make a wider audience aware of the cast of character who are behind the Palin smears going back to the end of August, 2008:

Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin took to Twitter on Wednesday to deliver a pair of cryptic messages related to White House Deputy Chief of Staff Pete Rouse, who is rumored to be a potential interim replacement for White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel in the event that Emanuel leaves the administration next month to run for mayor of Chicago.

"Alaska's Pete Rouse (@ least he claims to be ‘Alaska')finally comes out of the shadows; Obama looks to appt him COS;strange doings in the WH," Palin tweeted, adding, "(Rahm's the smart one...bailing before Nov) Now, check out possible COS Pete Rouse. His background, voter reg in AK,etc. It's a small world"

Palin has previously alluded to her suspicions that Rouse, who once worked in Juneau and is still registered to vote in Alaska, may be at the center of a White House operation designed to undermine her politically.

[...]

When Palin resigned from office in July of 2009, she cited as one of her primary reasons for stepping down the frivolous ethics complaints filed by liberal bloggers and other Alaska residents.

Her then spokesperson, Meg Stapleton, suggested to Time that the ethics complaints were being orchestrated by the Obama administration.

"A lot of this comes from Washington, D.C. The trail is pretty direct and pretty obvious to us," Stapleton said, adding that the attacks in Alaska against Palin appeared to be lifted from Emanuel's strategy for taking down Republican opponents. "It's the Sarah Palin playbook. It's how they operate," Stapleton said.

The two Time reporters who wrote the 2009 story added, "Palin and her Alaska circle find evidence for their suspicions about the White House in the person of Pete Rouse, who lived in Juneau for a time before he became chief of staff to a young U.S. Senator named Barack Obama."

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Read the full article here.

- JP

CBS story focuses on Sarah Palin's online community of supporters

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When Scott Conroy, who covers the digital realm for CBS News, contacted us in April to interview us for a story he was working on about Sarah Palin's supporters on the Web, we were more than a little bit hesitant. We know CBS' history of bashing conservatives in general and Gov. Palin in particular, and we asked Scott whether he intended to treat his subject matter fairly. After assuring us that he had no axes to grind, we answered his questions over the telephone for some 20 minutes or so.

Now that his story has been published on the CBS politics page we have to admit that Scott was as good as his word. The thrust of his article is that a passionate and loyal community of Gov. Palin's online supporters has become a potent force and could become an important grassroots component of her 2012 campaign organization, should she decide to run for the White House. Not that we don't have a few nits to pick with the final product of Scott's labors, however.

We don't like the term "Palin-Heads." It's a bit of a sore spot for us. We didn't much care for the "Fredhead" label, either, back when we were supporting Fred Thompson in the 2008 GOP presidential preliminaries. Our personal preference was "Frederalist" -- a pun to be sure, but it beat the heck out of the alternatives. Scott took "Palin-Heads" from our colleague Nicole Coulter's comparison of members of the Palin blogging community to the "Deadheads" who were fans of the Grateful Dead more years ago than we care to remember, as we enjoyed the Dead's music when they were at their best. Unfortunately, the band was not always at its best, and the music was at times awful. "Wake of the Flood" is our all-time fave Dead album, but we digress... Not all Sarah Palin's supporters are cultists, but the writer seized on Nicole's comments to portray us as such, which we believe undermines the seriousness of our support for Gov. Palin and the extensive research many of us conducted into all facets of the governor before we made the decision to support her.

We're sure that most of what Nicole had to say to Scott went unused in the final edited version of his story, and we're not criticizing her. She merely made an innocent comment, but Scott picked up on it to create what may not actually be an accurate impression. Only one quote from the entire 20-minutes of our own conversation with him survived the editing process, and this has generally been our experience when being interviewed by reporters. Standing alone and as out of context as a fish out of water, the quotes as published rarely convey their original meaning. This was certainly the case with what we said to Scott. Our point to Scott was that we didn't make Gov. Palin an object of worship, as many of the Obama cultists did with "The One," but rather we appreciated her all the more for being a down-to-earth real person who many ordinary Americans can relate to. We told him that she's a woman, not a goddess or diva, but she is nevertheless an exceptional woman. Our point was unfortunately lost in a CBS word processor. We were on the other side of the process for some 20 years when we worked in radio station newsrooms, however, so we understand how stories get cut for length, and it's often not done by the reporter, but rather by his or her managing editor. Sadly, editing for length often deprives a piece of meaning and continuity. By that time, a news story or feature is often out of the hands of the writer, however. It's something akin to a horse being designed by a committee and turning out to be a jackass. Or like any government project, but again we digress...

Besides Nicole Coulter and yours truly, Scott also talked to Adrienne Ross (whom we were only too happy to steer him to), O.P. Ditch, Sapwolf and Hillbuzz guy Kevin DuJan. Overall, it's a good and mostly positive piece (read it here) -- much better than we expected from CBS -- and for that, we can all be thankful. We should all get together, however, and come up with a descriptive term for the Paliniste which will be a better fit and not wince-inducing, as is "Palin-Heads."

Update: Scott talks to liberal CBS talking head Bob Schieffer here.

- JP