“And there’s always the possibly that one of the ‘out’ candidates -- Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Rep. Paul Ryan, even Sarah Palin -- steps back into the ring, electrifying the anti-Mitt crowd.”- JP
“Romney clearly thinks that Perry is vulnerable on Social Security and has decided to attack him on it. The problem is that should Perry win the Republican nomination anyway, Romney's words are going to be used against Perry by the Obama administration, much like George H. W. Bush's ‘voodoo economics’ was used against Ronald Reagan's tax cut proposal in 1980. Palin is playing a far more subtle game...”- JP
Ohio, long a bellwether in presidential politics, isn’t necessarily considered a must-win for Republican primary candidates.Gov. Romney's 2008 presidential campaign acquired a reputation as a money-raising machine, but the fact that Gov. Palin's leadership PAC raised more money than his is significant. She has not yet even announced her candidacy, while Romney is an announced candidate for the GOP presidential nomination.
But the enthusiasm a candidate musters in the Buckeye state — including financial contributions — can be indicative of how they’ll do in the general election.
“Ohio’s always going to be a focus of presidential elections,” said Dave Levinthal, a spokesman for the Center for Responsive Politics, which collects and analyzes data about political fundraising. “If one candidate is doing particularly well there, that could to some degree foreshadow their success later.”
Ohio money is important, too.
Before presidential candidates launch formal campaigns, they raise money through leadership PACs — political action committees that politicians use for indirect sponsoring of a candidacy. The funds can be used for travel, political consulting fees or polling.
Levinthal calls those PACs a “barometer” of early support.
Later, Ohio can be expected to be a significant donor to campaign coffers.
In 2008, presidential campaign donations from Ohio totaled nearly $16 million.
Palin has long cast a shadow on the Republican field, though she has not declared her candidacy. Unless she announces she is not running, and maybe even after that, she will remain a factor.
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PPP's first national poll looking at the Republican Presidential race since Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announced they wouldn't run finds Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin in a tie at the top with 16% each. Tim Pawlenty at 13% and Herman Cain at 12% are also in double digits with Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul each at 9%, and Jon Huntsman at 4% rounding out the field.The Democrat polling company's somewhat smallish sample is made up of 574 primary voters who usually cast their primary ballots for Republicans. The pollster, whose clients include radical leftist site Daily Kos and the SEIU, conducted automated telephone interviews from May 23rd to 25th.
Romney's support is built on moderate and center right Republicans, while Palin's winning the most conservative faction of the party. With moderates Romney's at 26% with only Pawlenty at 15% also reaching double digits and Palin in third at 8%. With 'somewhat conservative' voters Romney likewise leads with 19% to 15% each for Pawlenty and Palin. But with voters identifying as 'very conservative' Romney finds himself well back in 5th place at 11% with Palin leading the way at 20%, followed by Cain at 15%, Bachmann at 13%, and Pawlenty at 12%.
After noting that he would be a "great candidate," Palin quickly changed his tune when asked about Romney's record.Conroy says that both candidates could benefit from the local media's Palin vs. Romney narrative because it draws attention away from other players in the crowded presidential field.
"I think that he'll have maybe a bit more challenges with independents who make up the tea party movement, wanting to make sure we are not going to--we won't have any excuses or perceived political reasons to grow government," Palin said. "In my opinion, any mandate coming from government is not a good thing, obviously, and I am not the only to say so. But obviously there will be more explanation coming from Gov. Romney for his support of government mandates."
Pressed on whether Romney would have a particularly difficult time attracting support from members of the tea party movement, Palin did not hold back.
"That perhaps will be a big challenge for him because tea party activists are pretty strident, in a good way, in making sure that the candidate that many of the tea party patriots will support--the candidate has a record of living out the principles that tea party patriots do embrace," she said.
Palin added that Romney may have a "good argument" that what he implemented in Massachusetts applied only on a statewide level and would not be appropriate nationally. But then she quickly went back on the attack.
"However, even on a state level and a local level, mandates coming from a governing body, it's tough for a lot of us to accept because we have great faith in the private sector and in our own families and in our businessmen and women in making decisions for ourselves," Palin said. "Not any level of government telling us what to do."
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Support for Romney climbs with the income level of the American being asked, whereas it falls for Palin.- JP
It might be tempting to ascribe this difference in support to personal styles and histories. Romney is well to do, practically to the manor born, with smooth manners, expensive clothes, and the history of being a successful CEO. Palin, on the other hand, is working class, self made, with a more natural, folksy manner about her. Romney would never be caught dead gutting halibut or dressing a newly killed caribou; he doubtless has people who will do that for him.
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The Gallup Poll suggests Palin is better positioned to garner votes than is Romney. There are just more poor people than there are rich. That is one reason the Democrats, by conducting class warfare, have had some success.
Of course, concerning the class warfare strategy, one might conclude it would not be as effective against Palin than it would be against Romney. Palin may now be a relatively wealthy woman, but that money was earned and not inherited. Barack Obama's job as a "community organizer" is not going to go very well in a class war when matched up against a woman who worked in commercial fishing and as a sports reporter for a local TV station.
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“While Romney's still trying to figure out how to explain RomneyCare, Palin's on offense dismantling Obama. #RunSarahRun”- JP
Huckabee performs best among core Republicans, as opposed to conservative-leaning independent voters. He also performs best among Southerners, regular churchgoers and "non-supporters" of the tea party.But another surprise or two are in store when the results are broken down by the issues that are most important to Republicans:
Surprisingly, Palin performs best among self-described "liberal or moderate" Republicans and those who "seldom" go to church. The poll also finds she has greater appeal to people who didn't graduate from college and with Republicans who make less than $90,000 a year. She ties with Romney on support from Republicans from the East Coast.
Meanwhile, Romney is most popular on the West Coast and leads Republicans who are 50 and over and wealthy. He has a significant lead when it comes to college graduates. He ties with Huckabee and bests Palin among GOPers who describe themselves as "tea party supporters."
Mitt Romney still does badly among those who social issues as the biggest issue in 2012, as does Newt Gingrich. Perhaps more surprising, Sarah Palin wins among those voters who see national security and foreign policy as the most important issue.
"Well, Palin has principles."- JP
Romney says that his views on abortion have "evolved and deepened." He was for it before he was against it. His changing stances on the issue are chronicled here.Second Amendment:
Sarah Palin has always opposed abortion. Period. As Deacon Keith Fournier wrote at Catholic Online in 2008, "Sarah Palin is a woman who lives what she proclaims. She is truly pro-life."
As on life issues, Romney's position on Second Amendment matters has evolved.Reagan Conservatism:
Sarah Palin has always been a strong defender of the Second Amendment. She is a lifetime NRA member who has been honored by that organization. As governor, she signed Alaska on to a multi-state amicus brief authored by the State of Texas in the case of District of Columbia v. Heller.
Romney tried to distance himself from Ronald Reagan before he praised him. Byron York recalled the debate between Romney and Sen. Ted Kennedy during the 1994 Senate campaign: "In the debate, Kennedy tried to portray Romney as a turn-back-the-clock conservative, and Romney took exception, essentially disavowing Reagan." The former Massachusetts governor sings quite a different tune now.In each of these three examples, the difference is consistency. Sarah Palin has been remarkably consistent and principled in her beliefs, whereas Mitt Romney seems to have modified his stance to appeal to different political constituencies. While it's somewhat encouraging to see him move away from the left on some key issues, we find the ease with which he has done it to be more than just a little opportunistic. We're reminded of the famous quote, first attributed to the famous Presbyterian minister (and twice Chaplain of the U.S. Senate) Peter Marshall, "You've got to stand for something or you'll fall for anything."
Sarah Palin is a solid Reagan Conservative, and she has always been so. That's why the Young Americas Foundation chose her, above all others, to keynote the opening banquet of its recent Reagan 100 Celebration. Andrew Coffin, Vice President and Director of the Reagan Ranch Center, wrote of Gov. Palin on her visit to the ranch, "Everything about the Ranch reflects the great American, and, particularly, western ideals that Ronald Reagan cherished: hard work, responsibility, stewardship of the land, freedom, and opportunity. It was clear on Friday that Governor Palin is a leader cut from the same cloth—it is these great western ideals, and the way they could be seen at the Ranch in small but telling details, that she viscerally connected with. And I have to admit, it was fun to see up close how genuine that connection was."
"Unlike wishy-washy Romney, Sarah Palin has come out and rebuked Obama for his dithering over Egypt. As Palin pointed out, Israel is surrounded by snake and scorpion, each dedicated to its eradication."- JP
During an interview on Tuesday night with Piers Morgan on CNN, the former GOP Massachusetts governor said Palin would bring a lot to the political table.Romney has been making thge media rounds to promote his new book, No Apology: The Case for American Greatness.- JP
"I believe she is an extraordinarily powerful and effective voice in our party, that she has generated a great deal of support and attention, that she'd be great in a primary process," he said of the former vice-presidential nominee and Tea Party darling. "She'd bring attention to the process, and frankly, the more people we have on the stage in those debates talking about different ideas and different approaches, the better."
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When the CNN host asked whether Romney could beat Palin, he replied, "I don't know the answer to that."
Both Palin and Romney filed impressive year-end fundraising reports, due Monday at the Federal Election Commission. From Nov. 23 and Dec. 31, Palin's Sarah PAC hauled in $279,000. She finished the year with $1.3 million in her campaign account.Hotline's Jeremy P. Jacobs says Gov. Palin's fundraising success shows that she has cultivated a dedicated network of contributors, most of them small donors. As for the other potential GOP candidates, none of their fundraising efforts even came close to those of the two front runners.
Palin's total is particularly striking because she outraised Romney using only a federal political action committee. Romney's series of state level PACs set up in Alabama, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire and South Carolina, detailed in a New York Times report last year, allows big donors to max out both to Romney's federal committee, the Free and Strong America PAC, and to his state organizations, which often have higher contribution limits.
That state network helped Romney outraise Palin in the previous reporting period, which covered mid-October to the end of November. He wasn't as fortunate in the final reporting period of the year. In the last five weeks of 2010, Romney's federal PAC raised almost $175,000 and his state PACs hauled in $36,000, bringing his total haul to almost $211,000 -- less than Palin's take for the same period.
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Mitt Romney:h/t: Mitch Daniels fan Don Surber
PAC: Free and Strong America PAC, Inc.
Total 2010 Receipts (from Oct. report): $4,614,790.08
Cash on Hand (from Oct. report): $1,341,906.13
Sarah Palin:
PAC: SarahPac
Total 2010 Receipts (from Oct. report): $2,501,652.04
Cash on Hand (from Oct. report): $1,277,433.92
We've polled eight states, not including Massachusetts, since the 2010 election ended. Romney has the lowest favorability rating of the Republican top 4 with conservatives in every single one of those states except Michigan, where he probably benefits from his dad having been the Governor. And it's not like Romney is just slightly less well liked than the others with conservatives- it's a large gap, particularly when you compare him with Palin or Huckabee.Even in Michigan, where Gov. Romney makes his strongest showing with conservatives, he's third behind Governors Palin and Huckabee.
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Romney supporters said his first “Tonight Show” guest spot since his failed 2008 presidential bid was not inspired by the All-Sarah-All-the-Time coverage of his chief rival for the GOP nomination.Chabot says Romney has also been trying to close the social media gap between him and the 2008 vice presidential candidate. But he has a long way to go. Sarah Palin, she notes, has more than three times the number of Twitter followers and Facebook friends that Romney does. Blogging clinical law professor William A. Jacobson at Legal Insurrection tells Chabot that may be an insurmountable goal for Romney, opining “I don’t think anybody can catch her in terms of social media. She really has pioneered use of Facebook as primary means of communication with the public.”
Palin has saturated the air waves — bludgeoning halibut on her Alaska reality show on TLC, cheering on daughter Bristol from a front-row seat on the ABC hit “Dancing with the Stars,” dishing politics on Fox News and flogging her second book on a coast-to-coast tour.
Spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom said Romney has nothing to promote, and simply thought the Leno sit-down would be “fun.”
Others say a laid-back chat with Bay State native Leno will give the straight-arrow Romney a chance to let down his blow-dried hair in front of millions of late-night couch potatoes.
“He’s trying to make sure people don’t forget him,” said John Feehery, a Republican consultant based in Washington D.C. “He’s trying to humanize himself and appear sympathetic.”
GOP consultant and pollster Steve Lombardo advised Romney to avoid an all-out star war with a star of Palin’s magnitude.
“I think it would be a mistake for Romney to try to out-celebrity Sarah Palin. I don’t think anyone can do that right now,” Lombardo said. “He’ll probably never have the celebrity status or connect with the core Republican party like she does.”
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"You have to admire the near perfection of Mitt Romney as a candidate. It’s no easy thing to find someone with such poise, movie-star looks, high intelligence, family stability, and record of accomplishment. He is accused of being too smooth by those of us less gifted by nature."Riiiight, Gov. Romney is such a perfect candidate that he couldn't even beat the weak John McCain in the 2008 GOP primaries, despite having raised over $90 million in campaign cash, $35 million of it from his own personal fortune.
*A Rasmussen Reports poll showed Palin with an 82 percent favorability rating, compared to 17 percent who view her unfavorably. Fifty percent of likely voters in the 2012 primary elections for the presidential nomination had a very favorable opinion of the former governor, while eight percent claimed they have a very unfavorable opinion of her.Rasmussen surveyed 1,000 likely GOP primary voters with a margin of sampling error of plus-or-minus three percentage points.
Former Govs. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.) and Mike Huckabee (R-Ark.) trailed Palin with a favorability of 79 percent apiece. Seventeen percent hold unfavorable opinions of the two.
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The three top contenders for the Republican nomination to challenge Obama in 2012 remain tied when likely primary voters were asked which candidate they would vote for if the primaries were held today.
"She would be a great thing for the Republican primary process," said Romney, a 2008 presidential candidate and a potential candidate again in 2012. "It'd be a good thing for her to get in."The story goes on cite a sham ABC News/Washington Post poll (which oversampled Democrats and independents, each by double digit percentages over Republicans) in an attempt to marginalize Gov. Palin. Stupid Media Tricks: a biased lamestream media outlet cites a poll cooked by other biased lamestream media outlets in a pitiful attempt to lend credibility to the narrative they are collectively trying to push. Sorry, guys and girls. That dog is too old and lame to hunt anymore.
Romney, Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairman Michael Steele and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) have all rallied around Palin, who on Sunday night condemned suggestions that GOP operatives in Washington were looking to stall any potential presidential aspirations she might have.
"The story is nonsense. Because first of all I know Sarah Palin pretty well, and if she wants to run there's not going to be any Washington elites stopping her," Romney told conservative talker Laura Ingraham on Monday on her radio show.
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A spokesman for Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, another possible 2012 GOP presidential candidate, said Palin deserves credit and thanks for her work for the Republican Party.
"We're all on the same team, and anonymously sourced stories that try and divide us exemplify one reason why Americans outside the beltway hold D.C. in such contempt," said Alex Conant, the Pawlenty spokesman.
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Palin is seen as a potential candidate in 2012, and she's started the process of opening the door to running in two years by saying she would enter the race if there were no other good candidates involved.
While Romney could be an opponent for the GOP nomination, it makes sense for he and others to support her now given Palin's power with grassroots conservative voters who will play a large role in determining the 2012 Republican nominee for president.
