Gallup: Romney, Palin Lead A Smaller 2012 GOP Field

Gov. Palin's number have increased by 5 points since the last Gallup Poll
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In the first Gallup poll conducted since Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, and Mitch Daniels all decided not to run for the presidency, Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin lead the field of Republican candidates and likely candidates:

Mitt Romney (17%) and Sarah Palin (15%) now lead a smaller field of potential Republican presidential candidates in rank-and-file Republicans' preferences for the party's 2012 nominee. Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, and Herman Cain essentially tie for third, with Cain registering 8% support in his initial inclusion in Gallup "trial heat" polling. Notably, 22% of Republicans do not have a preference at this point.

The survey of 971 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted May 20-24, 2011. The two-point difference between former governors Romney and Palin are within the poll's four-point margin of sampling error, putting them in a statistical tie for the poll's lead. Since the last Gallup Poll was taken, Gov. Palin's numbers have increased by 5 percent and Gov. Romney's by 4 percent, show them as the two Republicans who have benefited most from the decisions by Huckabee, Trump, and Daniels to forgo the race.

Some polls conducted by left-leaning newspapers and television networks and heavily touted by those media outlets had placed Gov. Palin well down in the pack in recent months. But her performance in more reliable surveys such as this Gallup Poll give a more accurate indication of her true political strength among rank and file Republicans.

h/t: M. Joseph Sheppard

- JP

Gallup: With Huckabee out, Palin, Gingrich, Romney lead the GOP

"Palin... must be considered one of the GOP leaders at this point"
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A new Gallup analysis of its most recent polling data finds that with Mike Huckabee out of the race for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are the leaders in Republicans' preferences:

Romney and Palin are essentially tied; Gingrich does slightly less well even though he and Romney have nearly identical name identification.

Ron Paul and Bachmann are the only other potential candidates with name recognition above 50%. They are also next in line in terms of Republican nomination support.

[...]

Palin's support is the most intense. A higher percentage of Republicans have strongly favorable opinions than is the case for the other two, giving her a slightly higher overall Positive Intensity Score despite her higher strongly unfavorable percentage.

Gingrich and Romney have similar Positive Intensity Scores.

The overall differences in Republicans' views of these three well-known candidates are not large.

[...]

Palin, who has given no indication of whether she will run for the nomination, has very high name identification, is near the top of Republicans' nomination preferences, and has a higher Positive Intensity Score than any other well-known candidate. Palin thus must be considered one of the GOP leaders at this point. Romney and Gingrich are also well-known. Of the two, Romney is slightly better positioned at this point due to his higher ranking in Gallup's trial heats.

[More]

- JP

Whittington: Romney Supported by Elites, Palin by Working Class

"Palin is better positioned to garner votes than is Romney"
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Mark Whittington analyzes the results of a recent Gallup poll which shows that support for former governors Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin are mirror images when broken down by income:

Support for Romney climbs with the income level of the American being asked, whereas it falls for Palin.

It might be tempting to ascribe this difference in support to personal styles and histories. Romney is well to do, practically to the manor born, with smooth manners, expensive clothes, and the history of being a successful CEO. Palin, on the other hand, is working class, self made, with a more natural, folksy manner about her. Romney would never be caught dead gutting halibut or dressing a newly killed caribou; he doubtless has people who will do that for him.

[...]

The Gallup Poll suggests Palin is better positioned to garner votes than is Romney. There are just more poor people than there are rich. That is one reason the Democrats, by conducting class warfare, have had some success.

Of course, concerning the class warfare strategy, one might conclude it would not be as effective against Palin than it would be against Romney. Palin may now be a relatively wealthy woman, but that money was earned and not inherited. Barack Obama's job as a "community organizer" is not going to go very well in a class war when matched up against a woman who worked in commercial fishing and as a sports reporter for a local TV station.

[More]

- JP

Moderate Republicans prefer... Sarah Palin?

Who knew?
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A new Gallup Poll finds Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney still statistically tied among Republicans who were asked which prospective presidential candidate they believe should be the party's 2012 nominee. But there are some surprises in the numbers when they are broken down among subgroups of Republicans:

Huckabee performs best among core Republicans, as opposed to conservative-leaning independent voters. He also performs best among Southerners, regular churchgoers and "non-supporters" of the tea party.

Surprisingly, Palin performs best among self-described "liberal or moderate" Republicans and those who "seldom" go to church. The poll also finds she has greater appeal to people who didn't graduate from college and with Republicans who make less than $90,000 a year. She ties with Romney on support from Republicans from the East Coast.

Meanwhile, Romney is most popular on the West Coast and leads Republicans who are 50 and over and wealthy. He has a significant lead when it comes to college graduates. He ties with Huckabee and bests Palin among GOPers who describe themselves as "tea party supporters."

But another surprise or two are in store when the results are broken down by the issues that are most important to Republicans:

Mitt Romney still does badly among those who social issues as the biggest issue in 2012, as does Newt Gingrich. Perhaps more surprising, Sarah Palin wins among those voters who see national security and foreign policy as the most important issue.

Interestingly, Gov. Palin ranked second on the economy and second on social issues, as well as first on security/foreign policy. Huckabee was preferred in two categories, rated second in another and third in the remaining one. Romney was first in one category, second in another and third in the remaining two. Gingrich finished third in one category and last in the other three. So when first and second place ratings are combined, Huckabee and Palin did well, Romney and Gingrich not so well. Such combinations become important when a candidate drops out and voters switch support to their second choices.

More good news for Gov. Palin: If she's doing this well this early with moderate GOPers, she won't have as much heavy lifting to do to improve her numbers among conservatives and tea partiers. We were told by the know-it-all punditocracy that the moderates would be hardest for her to bring over to her side. The media also mocked her foreign policy credentials, but she does better than her three most likely rivals among Republicans for whom it is their top issue. What Sarah Palin's team needs to do, if the results of this poll are to be taken seriously, is get the word out about her record as a fiscally responsible governor who cut her state's budgets and vetoed federal mandates with strings attached. The media has given short shrift to her fiscal accomplishments while governor of Alaska. This comes as no surprise, as even today, relatively few Americans are aware that National Journal magazine named Barack Obama and Joe Biden as two of the most liberal members of the U.S. Senate in 2007. The media didn't report that fact because it was in the sack with the Obama campaign to portray him as a centrist.

Which brings us to the grains of salt which should be taken with these poll results. Gallup sampled Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, not likely voters or even registered voters. Likely voters tend to be better informed on issues and candidates. Second grain of salt: Though the pundits are chomping at the bit for candidates to declare their intentions to run, it's still relatively early. Spring will be the season for that. And the final grain of salt: Recall the the polls of March, 2007, which assured us that Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton were certain to be the respective candidates of the two major political parties. Political perceptions can change, and rather quickly, too.

- JP

Gallup Poll: Sarah Palin more admired than Michelle Obama, Oprah

"The big win goes to Palin"
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President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton were the "most admired" man and woman in America in 2010, according to the results of an annual Gallup poll. For Hillary Clinton, this is her ninth consecutive year at the top of the list of most admired women in the U.S. Here's Abe Greewald's take:

Now for the fun part: Guess who has the No. 2 spot. None other than George W. Bush. Normally, there’d be nothing remarkable in the last president being the second-most admired man in the country. But because the anti-Bush attack machine had so doggedly tried to paint him as a frightening historical outlier it’s stunning to see him treated like any American president. So much for the validity of an eight-year long, millions-strong politico-cultural movement.

[...]

And speaking of the 2008 election, the Democrats’ national nightmare, Sarah Palin, came in second to Hillary. Palin beat out none other than omnipresent cultural goddess Oprah Winfrey, who came in third (Both beat out First Lady Michelle Obama, who came in fourth).

To my mind, the big win goes to Palin. For all the pundit chatter about her not being a viable contender for president, the public admires her more than the most beloved media personality in the country. Like Oprah, Palin channeled her talent to connect with Americans toward its most efficient use. The Tea Party allowed her to showcase her ability, raise her market value, and serve a cause she believes in: America. Right before the eyes of antagonistic columnists and hostile comics she became the credible face of the most transformative political movement the country has seen in decades.

[More]

The USA Today/Gallup poll was conducted by telephone December 10-12, 2010, with a random sample of 1,019 adults 18 years of age and older.

- JP

Gallup: Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney top GOP presidential preference poll

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Gov. Palin and Mitt Romney are essentially tied at the top of the field of likely candidates for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, according to the latest Gallup poll. The former Massachusetts governor garners 19 percent support from those Republicans who were surveyed, and the 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate gets 16 percent. The 3-point difference is withing the poll's 4 percent margin of error, leaving the two in a statistical tie.

Other potential Republican presidential candidates receiving more than 5% support in the poll are Mike Huckabee (12 percent), Newt Gingrich (9 percent), and Ron Paul (7 percent). Tim Pawlenty and Haley Barbour each get 3 percent, while Rick Santorum, John Thune and Mitch Daniels receive 2 points apiece.

More from Gallup here.

h/t: Andrew Malcolm

- JP

Gallup Poll: Sarah Palin's 76% Favorable Among Republicans Tops Others in GOP

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Results of a new Gallup poll show that among Republicans, Sarah Palin is the best known and highest rated of five potential candidates for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. The first woman to win the nomination of the Republican Party to be its vice presidential candidate earns a 76% favorable rating among the party faithful, first in a field which also includes Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Bobby Jindal:



Among all Americans, Gallup found that Gov. Palin again had the highest favorables, but also the highest unfavorable ratings of the five, with only 9 percent of those surveyed expressing no opinion. The other four Republicans have much higher undecided ratings, suggesting they are not as well known as Gov. Palin, and more people have yet to make up their minds about them.

It's still a long way to 2012, and, as Gallup editor in chief Frank Newport reminds us, history shows that political images of candidates by the public are subject to change. Read Dr. Newport's full report here.

- JP

Romney and Palin lead GOP in new Gallup Poll

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In a new Gallup Poll just released, former governor Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin lead a field of prospective GOP presidential candidates among a sample of 490 Republican and Republican-leaning voters. Romney was named by 14% and Palin by 11 percent. The poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent puts the two in a statistical tie for the lead.

Others named include 2008 GOP presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, who somewhat surprisingly, finished ahead of former Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Speaker Newt Gingrich. Scott Brown, who was recently sworn is as the junior U.S. Senator from Massachusetts, also was named more ofter than Huckabee and Gingrich.

Rep. Ron Paul, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, former Senator Fred Thompson and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal also were name by at least 1 percent of the respondents. The survey asked respondents, without providing them with a list of name to choose from,whom they would most like to see as the GOP's 2012 presidential candidate.

Primary Election Matchup
Romney 14
Palin 11
McCain 7
Brown 4
Huckabee 3
Gingrich 3
Paul 2
Pawlenty 1
McDonnell 1
Thompson 1
Jindal 1

Gallup also found that a generic GOP candidate would run virtually even with President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 matchup, with 42% choosing the president and 42 percent the generic Republican. The poll's 3.2 percent margin of error means such a proposed contest would be a tossup. 942 registered voters were surveyed from Feb. 1 to Feb. 3.

The full Gallup report is here.

- JP

Look who's polarizing now

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It's the rare lamestream media report concerning Sarah Palin in which the former governor is not described as "polarizing." But results from a recent Gallup Poll reveal that the media dogs have been barking up the wrong tree. Barack Obama has, lo and behold, the most polarized approval ratings for any first-year president since Gallup began tracking approval numbers during the Eisenhower administration:

The 65 percentage-point gap between Democrats' (88%) and Republicans' (23%) average job approval ratings for Barack Obama is easily the largest for any president in his first year in office, greatly exceeding the prior high of 52 points for Bill Clinton.

Overall, Obama averaged 57% job approval among all Americans from his inauguration to the end of his first full year on Jan. 19. He came into office seeking to unite the country, and his initial approval ratings ranked among the best for post-World War II presidents, including an average of 41% approval from Republicans in his first week in office. But he quickly lost most of his Republican support, with his approval rating among Republicans dropping below 30% in mid-February and below 20% in August. Throughout the year, his approval rating among Democrats exceeded 80%, and it showed little decline even as his overall approval rating fell from the mid-60s to roughly 50%.

[...]

Thus, the extraordinary level of polarization in Obama's first year in office is a combination of declining support from Republicans coupled with high and sustained approval from Democrats. In fact, his 88% average approval rating from his own party's supporters is exceeded only by George W. Bush's 92% during Bush's first year in office. Obama's 23% approval among supporters of the opposition party matches Bill Clinton's for the lowest for a first-year president. But Clinton was less popular among Democrats than Obama has been to date, making Obama's ratings more polarized.

Since Gallup defines the degree of polarization of a politician as the percentage-point gap between his or her average approval rating from members of his or her own political party and the average job approval ratings he or she receives from members of the opposing poilitical party, our curiosity led us to look up the most recent Gallup survey which tracked those parameters for former Governor Sarah Palin. On December 17, 2009, the premier pollster reported that she was viewed favorably by 79% of Republicans and 21% of Democrats, a gap of 58 percentage points. So President Obama is more polarizing a political figure than Gov. Palin by a full 6 point margin.

The Parable of the Prompter...

The president possesses a wonderful teleprompter which can answer him when he stands before it. So he faced his magic Teleprompter and inquired:  

Teleprompter, Telepromter, standing tall
Who's the most polarizing pol of all?
It's surely THAT WOMAN against whom I'm railin'
It must be that horrible Sarah Palin

But his wonderful Teleprompter answered:

"O Mr. President, I'll tell you true
The Lady Palin is not as divisive as you."

The president was horrified, and inquired of his Teleprompter again:

Teleprompter, Telepromter, standing tall
Who's the most polarizing pol of all?
It's surely one who grates Republicans raw
It must be Bill Clinton of Arkansas

But the magic Teleprompter answered:

"O Mr. President, I'll tell you true
Even Ol' Bubba doesn't polarize like you."

Becoming angered, the president again queried his Teleprompter:

Teleprompter, Telepromter, standing tall
Who's the most polarizing pol of all?
It's surely the one I always blame first
It must be George Bush who divides us the worst

But the magic Teleprompter answered:

"O Mr. President, I'll tell you true
Even Dubya's not at divisive as you."

Frustrated, the president asked his Teleprompter one last time:

Teleprompter, Telepromter, standing tall
Who's the most polarizing pol of all?
There must be someone in this great nation
Who's worse than me at polarization

But the magic Teleprompter answered:

"O Mr. President, I'll tell you true
Not another in this land is as divisive as you."

It is said that a great crashing sound then echoed throughout the White House. And a new Teleprompter was ordered to replace the shattered one. To this date, the president hasn't been overheard in conversation with it. 

- JP

Byron York on Gallup's 'Most Admired Woman' Poll

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Washinton Examiner chief political correspondent Byron York made an appearance on FOX News' "On The Record" and discussed the results of the recent Gallup Poll with guest host Shannon Bream:



h/t: Freedom's Lighthouse

- JP

Poll: Hillary and Sarah are the women Americans admire most

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Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin are the two women Americans admire the most, our friend Andrew Malcolm reports:

Are American voters dropping a hint here?

According to a new survey just released by USA Today and the Gallup Poll, the 62-year-old Clinton barely beat out the 45-year-old Palin as the most admired female -- 16% to 15% in a poll of 1,025 adult Americans.

However, since the poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 points, it's statistically a P-C draw. The survey was open-ended, meaning men and women respondents had to provide the names by themselves.

Not that public admiration necessarily translates to votes. But the results have to set off any political spectator's eager imagination about a future presidential ballot match-up between the pair, who are politically polar opposites, both outspoken, both often under-estimated and both beloved by their respective bases.

First Lady Michelle Obama finished back in fourth place, just behind Oprah Winfrey. Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Queen Elizabeth II finished in a tie for fifth.

The list of most admired men, according to the poll, was topped by President Obama, followed by former President George W. Bush, who is enjoying something of a surge in popularity as Americans prove that Joni Mitchell was right -- "You don't know what you got till it's gone." Nelson Mandela was third, Glenn Beck fourth, Pope Benedict XVI fifth and the Rev. Billy Graham sixth.

- JP

Gallup: Palin’s Favorables Up, Unfavorables Down

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According to a Gallup Poll conducted Dec. 11-13, Sarah Palin's favorable ratings have risen four points in the last month, while her unfavorables have declined by three points. That's a seven-point turnaround -- but Palin's numbers improved only "slightly" -- Gallup says.

In October, the former governor's unfavorables were 50 percent. They have improved to 47 percent in December. her favorables were 40 percent in October, and they have risen to a December level of 44 percent.

Gallup's findings are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 American adults -- not registered voters -- aged 18 and older. The poll has a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.

In a poll conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp. in mid-November, Sarah Palin's favorable rating overall was 47 percent, compared to 42 pewrcent who had an unfavorable view of her. That was a substantial improvement over her Opinion Dynamics numbers from July,when only 38 percent viewed her favorably, and 51% said they had an unfavorable opinion of her. Among independent voters, Sarah Palin's favorable rating was 49 percent, with only 38 percent viewing her unfavorably.

Like the Gallip Poll, Opinion Dynamics' survey was conducted by telephone, but it surveyed only registered voters, while Gallup polled adults over the age of 18. The Opinion Dynamics poll has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.

- JP

Among independents, Palin viewed more favorably than Biden

Say it ain't so low, Joe! The left and their media lapdogs have been barking quite a bit lately about how Sarah Palin's favorable rating among independents has fallen. But her overall favorables are actually in a statistical tie with those of Vice President Joe Biden, as his numbers have been dropping at a very steep rate.

But the real kicker is that among independents, Sarah Palin has a considerably higher favorability rating than does Biden, according to two recent Gallup surveys. In a poll conducted by Gallup Oct. 16-19, the veep's favorables among independents is just 32 percent. Palin's favorables among that same demographic, in another poll, this one conducted Oct. 1-4 by Gallup, show the former Alaska governor's favorables to be 41 percent among independents, nine points higher than Biden's.

Considering the pass given Biden by the Obama-loving media and how it has been portraying Palin in the worst possible light for well over a year now, we see those results as nothing less than remarkable.

Overall, Biden's favorables are at 42 percent, while Palin's are at 40 percent. The two-point difference is within the margins of error for both polls, so it's a statistical dead heat.

h/t: FRee Republic

- JP

Surprise! Poll: Palin popular with GOP in northeast

According to PPP, a firm which polls for Democrats, Sarah Palin's popularity among Republicans is actually stronger in the northeast than in either the south or the midwest:

"Palin is viewed favorably by 89% of western Republicans, 86% in the northeast, 76% in the south, and 71% in the midwest. I wouldn't extrapolate these numbers too far, but it might be an indication she could do better in New Hampshire than Iowa. That might be particularly true if Tim Pawlenty gets a next door bonus like Dick Gephardt did in 1988 and Barack Obama did last year."

On PPP's blog, Tom Jensen says it's really not all that surprising since the percentage of Republican voters who identify as conservatives is in the 70 percent to 80 percent range in all geographic areas of the country.

Jensen opines that Gov. Palin might do better in New Hampshire than Iowa, but he preferences that speculation by warning, "I wouldn't extrapolate these numbers too far." Nor would we. It's early yet, and the governor is expected by most analysts to do well in Iowa. Plus, support for a candidate in Iowa may not be representative of that candidate's support in other midwestern states. Time will tell.

The PPP results do, however, back up findings by Gallup that put Gov. Palin's favorability ratings at 72 percent, a double-digit advantage over Mitt Romney at 56 percent.

- JP

Rush: Wake up, GOP!

Rush Limbaugh takes a look at the most recent Gallup Poll and says that Republicans should stop letting the media drive their perceptions of Sarah Palin:

We have too many people in our party who allow media to influence what they think of our own candidates, and they're looking at it the wrong way... The liberals, the left, the Drive-By Media, they are telling us who our nomination should be! They are telling us who they are most afraid of... Name for me one Republican candidate who has maintained a 72% approval rating while their life and their career has been under assault for the purpose of destruction, which is the case with Sarah Palin... If there are any of you wimpy, wishy-washy Republicans out there who so desperately want to have a candidate that the sophisticates in the media in Washington and New York approve of, you are guaranteed to secure the Republican Party defeat after defeat after defeat. If you're going to let them pick our nominee -- which happened last time, by the way.

Our friend Bill at Governor Palin for President 2012 also posted on this today:

72% of respondents said they approved of Sarah Palin, while 56% approved of Romney and 59% approved of Huckabee.

Those numbers are huge and depict the misunderstood reality of today's political environment. While Romney is leading Palin in the race with 3 years left to go, Palin's popularity remains astronomical. This despite the very high-profile and sustained attack on her character by liberals and elites in the conservative movement for almost a year now. One could say that Palin stands as a sort of Reaganite Teflon girl in the face of these attacks.

Romney, on the other hand, can't seem to spend his way to popularity. After running for president for several years now and sinking millions of his own dollars into his quest, he still comes up as average at best in polling.

Update: Don Surber says Palin's still number one:

A new Gallup Poll confirmed Pew Research’s finding last month that more Republicans like Sarah Palin than Mitt Romney.

Grassroots die hard.

Last month, Pew Research found that Palin was far more popular among Republicans than Romney.

Surber finds it "astounding" that Gov. Palin's supporters stayed with her after she announced that she would resign. We don't. While we can't speak for all of Sarah Palin's fans, the sense we get is for many of them is that there simply is no second choice.

- JP

Obama corporatism: Too much too soon

The results of new independent polls from credible opinion research houses indicate that Americans, concerned about Obama's radical spending and abortion policies, appear to be moving to the right. The usual obligatory disclaimers: It's only four polls. We need to see more data before we can identify any trends, if they do indeed exist. But there is reason for conservatives and right-leaning independents to find encouragement here.

The first survey, a Fox News poll conducted by Opinion Dynamics (PDF), found that fully 78 percent of Americans believe that when President Obama says "investment" it means spending their tax dollars, not saving them.

A majority (54 percent) of voters think Obama and the Democrats propose too much of an increase in spending, while only 6 percent want them to spend more. 35 percent say federal spending is "about right."

By party affiliation, 85 percent of Republicans and 61 percent of independents think the increase in spending under the Obama administration is too high, while 61 percent of Democrats say what the president proposes to spend is about right.

60 percent of those surveyed say the president's proposed cuts in government waste don't go far enough, including 84 percent of Republicans, 66 percent of independents and 38 percent of Democrats.

Given Obama's criticism of the Bush administration deficits during the presidential campaign, some 28 percent of Americans say they are surprised Obama is increasing the nation's deficit. More than twice as many -- 68 percent -- are not surprised.

The poll's most significant finding, however, has to do with the involvement of the federal government in the lives of American citizens, and it strongly suggests that Colin Powell has grossly misinterpreted the attitudes of the American people on this issue:

"Former Secretary of State Colin Powell recently made news by saying that Americans 'want more government in their life.' Americans disagree. Most -- 71 percent -- say they want less government in their life. A much smaller number (17 percent) fall in the category described by Powell."

Another finding by Opinion Dynamics:

"By 55 percent to 33 percent Americans think the federal government's increased involvement in U.S. auto companies is a bad thing, which is higher than the number that thinks the government's involvement in the U.S. financial industry is bad (47 percent bad thing, 38 percent good thing)."

The real stunner, however, is found in the results of another survey. For the first time since the Gallup Poll began asking the question in 1995, a majority of adult Americans have identified themselves as pro-life. In addition, fewer of them think abortion should be legal under any circumstances. 51 percent of Americans now call themselves "pro-life" and 42 percent "pro-choice":

"The new results, obtained from Gallup's annual Values and Beliefs survey, represent a significant shift from a year ago, when 50 percent were pro-choice and 44 percent pro-life. Prior to now, the highest percentage identifying as pro-life was 46 percent, in both August 2001 and May 2002."

"The May 2009 survey documents comparable changes in public views about the legality of abortion. In answer to a question providing three options for the extent to which abortion should be legal, about as many Americans now say the procedure should be illegal in all circumstances (23 percent) as say it should be legal under any circumstances (22 percent). This contrasts with the last four years, when Gallup found a strong tilt of public attitudes in favor of unrestricted abortion."

This dramatic shift toward the pro-life position is not an "outlier" - it has been confirmed by two other studies. Gallup asked the same abortion questions that are in its Gallup Values and Beliefs survey on a separate Gallup daily tracking poll from May 12-13, with nearly identical results. Gallup also points out that a Pew Research Poll also indicates a significant change in Americans' attitudes about abortion:

"...a recent national survey by the Pew Research Center recorded an eight percentage-point decline since last August in those saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases, from 54 percent to 46 percent. The percentage saying abortion should be legal in only a few or no cases increased from 41 percent to 44 percent over the same period. As a result, support for the two broad positions is now about even, sharply different from most polling on this question since 1995, when the majority has typically favored legality."

The shift in abortion views, when measured by party affiliation, can be accounted for by Republicans and independents who lean Republican, among whom identification as "pro-life" increased by fully 10 points over the past year, up from 60 percent to 70 percent. while the  views of Democrats and Democrat-leaners has essentially remained static.

When examined by ideology, the increase in pro-life sentiment is found among those who consider themselves conservatives and moderates. Gallup found no change in the abortion views of political liberals.

A year ago, Gallup found that more women considered themselves to be pro-choice than pro-life, by 50 percent to 43 percent. 49 percent of men last year identified as pro-choice and 46 percent as pro-life. Today, because of an increase in pro-life sentiment among both demographics, according to Gallup, both women and men are more likely to identify themselves as pro-life:

Men and women have been evenly divided on the issue in previous years; however, this is the first time in nine years of Gallup Values surveys that significantly more men and women are pro-life than pro-choice.

So what does all this polling mean? Without more specific data, one cannot say with 100 per cent assurance, but the Fox/Opinion Dynamic results regarding spending and the involvement of government in the lives of Americans and businesses suggest that Obama and the Democrats are over-reaching. They are transforming the nation's economic system into a form of corporatism that is scaring the daylights out of many moderates and conservatives. Obama surprised both groups. The former are suffering from buyers remorse in the extreme, most of them having voted for Obama. Most of the latter were expecting a different form of collectivism from Obama, i.e., socialism.

Explaining the change in attitudes about abortion is more problematic. Gallup says it is possible that Obama's abortion policies may be driving Republicans and independents away from the pro-choice position, while Democrats generally support everything Obama is doing as president.

Some early reaction to the Gallup Polls reported by Politico includes comments from some  Republicans who have had high profiles in the media and affirmed their support for life in front of the national audience:

"This is promising news," Gov. Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) told Politico through a spokeswoman. "Every life is precious and has purpose."

[...]

"The American people are saying loud and clear they want leaders who believe in the sanctity of life and cherish it even at the earliest stage," former Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee said in a statement to Politico.

"Over the last few months, Republicans have been trying to rebrand themselves," he said. "This is a clear indication that we do not need to rebrand by moving left toward the middle but instead remain steadfast in our commitment to human life."

[...]

Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the Susan B. Anthony List, agreed with Huckabee, saying the poll shows "that those who blame pro-lifers first when the party loses need to throw out that idea."

"For the Republican Party, it's the independents and the moderate Republicans that are trending pro-life," she said.

Obama "has gone way too far in a direction that people don't want to go on this issue," added Dannenfelser. "Obama's policies and his nominees are running in the exact opposite direction of the polls.

[...]

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele told Politico through a spokeswoman that "we have a long way to go, but will continue to work to promote pro-life values."

Nancy Keenan, president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, to no one's surprise, disagrees:

"It's one poll, and I look at more than just one poll."

Actually, it is three polls, two by Gallup and one by Pew, that indicate a dramatic shift in the attitudes of Americans about abortion. Ms Keenan may whistle through the graveyard (grim metaphor intentional) all she wants, but it is significant that for the first time since 1995, more Americans take the pro-life position than the pro-abortion one.

- JP

Gov. Palin encouraged by Gallup Poll results

A new Gallup Poll shows that the pro-life movement has good cause for celebration today. For the first time, a majority of Americans self-identify as "pro-life."

According to Politico's Andy Barr, the Gallup results are encouraging to life-affirming activists who who seen the election of a pro-abortion president who is almost certain to choose a pro-abortion nominee to fill the upcoming vacancy or retiring Supreme Court justice David Souter. 

"This is promising news," Gov. Sarah Palin (R-Alaska) told Politico through a spokeswoman. "Every life is precious and has purpose."

Gallup reports that its survey found that the percentage of Americans who identify as "pro-life" jumped from 44 percent to 51 percent in the last year. Those who identify as "pro-choice" dropped from 50 percent to 42 percent over the same period of time. 

- JP