PPP: Gov. Palin leads in Texas, Wisconsin, West Virginia and Maine (Updated)

And a close second in Florida and Minnesota
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The latest batch of GOP presidential primary polls conducted just prior to the midterm elections by Democrat research firm Public Policy Polling finds Mitt Romney ahead in Florida, Tim Pawlenty "surprisingly weak in his home state" of Minnesota, and Sarah Palin leading in Texas, Wisconsin, West Virginia, and... Maine? Yes, Maine! More from PPP's Tom Jensen:

The most important state to the nomination process on this list is Florida and there Romney's ahead with 28% to 22% for Palin and 15% for Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee. It should be noted that although Romney does have the lead, it's a much less lofty one than what he posted in a March PPP poll of the state when he had 44%. The only other candidates included in that poll were Palin and Huckabee and we're finding more and more as we do these polls that when new folks are added into the mix it tends to hurt Romney more than anyone else. His support is less solid than Palin's and Huckabee's so even though he looks like a very nominal front runner at this point, he's also the candidate most likely to see his support collapse as things heat up.

Tim Pawlenty leads the field in his home state of Minnesota but his performance is surprisingly weak. He gets 19% with Palin right on his heels at 18%, Huckabee at 14%, and Gingrich and Romney each getting 11%. These numbers are reflective of the overall trouble we found for Pawlenty at home in our final preelection poll of the state- his approval rating was under water and voters overwhelmingly said they didn't think he should run for President. Partially because of Pawlenty's declining popularity Democrats seem to have picked up the Governor's office there in an otherwise awful year for the party. Palin actually leads Pawlenty 20-18 with conservatives but the Governor leads overall thanks to a 27-10 advantage with moderates. It is no coincidence that Romney is in the basement in this state- we've found several places now that where Pawlenty is unusually strong the victim seems to be Romney because of a greater split in the vote among GOP centrists.

Palin holds small leads in the remaining states. Most noteworthy is her strength in Texas and West Virginia, which suggests a bid from her could really hurt Mike Huckabee in the South. In Texas she gets 22% to 20% for Huckabee and 15% for both Gingrich and Romney. In West Virginia she's at 25% to 22% for Huckabee and again 15% for both Gingrich and Romney. These margins are obviously very close but they nevertheless pose trouble for Huckabee and perhaps even more so Gingrich if she ends up making a bad because strength in the South would be vital to either of their prospects.

Romney may not have a complete strangle hold on New England- Palin gets 23% in Maine to 18% for Romney, 16% for Huckabee, and 14% for Gingrich. Those numbers should give folks who think there's no chance Maine Republicans would nominate someone far right against Olympia Snowe in 2012 second thoughts. And finally Palin gets 18% in Wisconsin to 15% for Huckabee, 14% for Gingrich, and 12% for Romney. Pawlenty has his best non-Minnesota performance so far at 8%, not surprising given that it's right next door. And Pawlenty's unusually strong Wisconsin number helps to explain Romney's unusually weak Wisconsin number.

[More]

We find it significant that in many of the states where others are leading, Gov. Palin is running a strong second, for example in Minnesota (where Pawlenty's lead over her is within the margin of error) and Florida (where the Romney lead is right at the MOE). In Rep. Michelle Bachmann and Senator-elect Marco Rubio, she has powerful conservative friends in both states.

PPP is serious about polling the primaries. They have released polls in 12 states, with Romney leading in 5 (California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, New Hampshire), Gov. Palin in 4 (Maine, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin), Huckabee in 2 (Illinois, Pennsylvania), and Pawlenty in 1 (Minnesota.) Jensen promises that his company will have results from a final batch of six polls -- including Alaska, Kentucky, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Washington -- out early next week.

Full results are available here as a PDF document.

h/t: Hot Air

Update: Susequent PPP polling (PDF) shows Gov. Palin also leading in Ohio and Washington State. She second to Huckabee in Kentucky and tied for second behind Gingrich in North Carolina.

- JP

Turnout Huge For Raese Rally featuring Gov. Palin and Ted Nugent

HuntingtonNews.net reports that Sarah and Todd Palin made a last-minute "surprise" visit to the Ted Nugent rally for GOP U.S. Senate candidate John Raese in Charleston Saturday afternoon in front of the largest crowd to attend any event held by either Raese or his opponent Gov. Joe Manchin this year. Video courtesy of Freedom's Lighthouse:

An estimated crowd of 2,700 came out on a clear, sunny October day from across West Virginia and sang the "Star Spangled Banner" with Nugent, the rock legend from the late 70s who has emerged as a leading voice for sportsmen and women across America. The event--part political rally, part Mountain State family reunion--was held at Haddad Riverfront Park in downtown Charleston, just a few blocks away from Manchin's residence at the Governor's Mansion.

"The size of this crowd on such short notice should tell us something about the momentum John Raese has going into Tuesday's election," said Jack Ellis, HNN's Senior Political Analyst. "Raese's campaign didn't know that Ted Nugent was going to be able to get here until just a few days ago, and the Sarah Palin visit was added too late for the media to really get ahold of it. Yet nearly three thousand people showed up? Amazing."

"This kind of turnout reminds me a great deal of the kind of crowds George W. Bush had when he visited West Virginia in 2000," said Ellis. "Crowds like this go back home and are great evangelists for their candidate. This single event could put Raese over the top on Tuesday."

According to event organizers, Todd and Sarah Palin took an overnight flight from Alaska to arrive Saturday morning in time for the event.

[...]

After the rally in Charleston, the Palins joined the Raeses at a Tea Party Express campaign event in Wheeling.

"This ranks as one of the most interesting of all political events in the past few years here," said Ellis. "With basically two or three days' notice, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate drew a crowd with concerned Republicans, Democrats, and Independents from across West Virginia. They all agree on one thing--the Obama Administration has got to be reined in. That's their bond, and John Raese is their candidate for U.S. Senate."

- JP

Would John Raese support Gov. Palin for President? 'Absolutely'

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West Virginia GOP candidate John Raese, who is in a tight contest with Democrat Gov. Joe Manchin for one of West Virginia's two U.s. Senate seats, has embraced the endorsement he received from Sarah Palin this week:

"I am just honored that Sarah Palin would endorse me," he told CNN Friday. "I know my wife and 1,000 conservative women across West Virginia support her very much. I am just pleased to get that endorsement."

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His answer, when asked if he'd support a Palin candidacy: "Absolutely. Absolutely. I think we have many fine candidates, but if she is our nominee, absolutely."

Raese, a Morgantown businessman, was appearing at the State Capitol in Charleston, where he spoke to a group of Tea Party activists and told them that "a great, great turnout" will be the key to victory on Nov. 2.

Later, Raese was slated to attend the West Virginia Republican Party's "Victory Gala" headlined by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

Talking to CNN, Raese did not back away from his staunch opposition to the federal minimum wage, arguing that the government regulation of wages or prices impedes private sector growth. He made the case that a better business climate, without the "restrictor plate" of big government interference, would boost incomes across the board.

He was unswayed by the argument that companies might set wages too low without government regulation. An unabashed disciple of the free market, Raese argued that wages should be determined by "laws of supply and demand."

"And we've gotten away from basic Economics 101, haven't we?," he said. "We've really lost the sense of freedom, free enterprise and capitalism, and we know we don't want government restraints on what we do in this country."

A poll conducted Tuesday by Rasmussen Research indicates that Raese has now opened up a seven-point lead over Joe Manchin, in what Scott Rasmussen describes as "perhaps the most improbably close U.S. Senate contest in the country."

- JP

Sarah Palin sends condolences to miner families

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Gov. Palin sends her condolences to the families and friends of miners who were casualties of the mine explosion in Montcoal, West Virginia. Via Twitter:

"Our hearts go out to West Virginia families dealing with tragic mining explosion.Todd & I send prayers for those affected. We are so sorry."

- JP