Tea Party Express has endorsed Joe Miller, a GOP U.S. Senate candidate in Alaska. The Fairbanks lawyer is considered a long shot in his race against incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski:
Though Miller has far less name identity in the state, a source tells CNN that the Tea Party Express will pour in resources – including people and money – to help Miller overcome the odds.- JP
The group known for espousing conservative ideals in cross-country bus tours will try to "level the playing field" across Alaska on Miller's behalf, the source said.
The endorsement will also likely deepen a political plotline that has seen some national interest: Conservative favorite, yet controversial figure, Sarah Palin endorsed Miller on June 2 over Murkowski.
[...]
June 8 in Nevada, Tea Party Express-backed candidate Sharron Angle overcame long odds, beating GOP establishment favorite Sue Lowden and 11 other candidates in the Senate primary. Before the Tea Party Express backed Angle, she badly trailed Lowden in the polls. After the group poured $550,000 into the Nevada race to support Angle, along with assistance from other conservative groups, the candidate sat atop polls just before the primary. The organization now vows to pump in an additional $1 million+ into the race to help Angle defeat Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
The Tea Party Express sees a parallel in what it did for Angle, and what it hopes to do for Miller in Alaska.
"This guy is kind of a Sharron Angle type," a source told CNN.
Like Angle, Miller's campaign website states that he opposes financial bailouts and supports repeal of what he calls "Obamacare."
Saying that Miller is "in lock step with the Tea Party" on many issues, the source added that the group will "try and do the same thing we did with Angle."
Josh - I would agree that Miller is an "under dog" but not necesarily a "long shot" for the following reasons.
ReplyDeleteFirst, it is a semi closed primary (Republicans and indies only) and it is likely to be a very low turnout primary as there are few competitive races on the Republican side. The Governor's race, US House race, and most state house and senate races are all non-competitive. Only the Lt. Gov. race seems competitive. Similarily, most see the US Senate race as non-competitive so a lot of people will not bother to vote. Therefore, a grassroots candidate can pull an upset if they can get their base vote to the polls.
Second, the Parental Notice Initiative on the primary ballot will result in a large turnout of pro life voters in the primary. If Miller can hammer Murkowski on her pro choice record he might be able to win over a lot of these voters.
Third, the military vote is quite significant in Alaska. Given Miller's military service he might be able to win over a lot of these voters. However, he will have to get them to the polls.
Fourth, the Tea Party voters - and anti incumbent voters - are more likely to vote in this year's primary - and that too will favor Miller.
Finally, Sarah's supporters will be motivated to vote for Miller in the primary.
Name recognition is a problem. However, in his interview with Sarah Palin radio, Miller thought he would need only 56,000 votes to win the primary because of Alaska's small size and expected low voter turnout - with most of the Republican voters centered in Fairbanks (his home town), Anchorage and the Matsu Valley. He joked that he didn't need much in campaign funds as he could probably meet with each voter personally since there were so few of them! So his lack of name recognition could be easily overcome.
Alaska is also a very inexpensive media market so a little money can go a long way. I'm pretty sure the Tea Party Express reviewed all of these factors before committing resources to this race. Given their limited resources they are unlikely to waste money unless they think they can win. Now with Sarah's backing and the Tea Party Express backing Miller there is the possibility Freedom Works might join in along with Ron Paul's group. And perhaps the Club for Growth might join in as well.
In listening to Miller's interview on Sarah Palin radio, he is a superb communicator - much better than Murkowski - and is likely to best her in the televised debates.
Finally, if one looks at the 2008 Presidential primary results in Alaska, one can see a path to victory for Miller. The Huckabee (pro life vote) was 22% and the Ron Paul (libertarian vote)was 18% for a total of 40%. With Sarah's and possibly Ron Paul's backing these votes would likely go to Miller
The moderate votes of McCain (16%) and Romney (44%) totaled 60%. These votes would likely go to Murkowski.
So at best, Murkowski is starting off with a 60/40 lead. However, if the turnout is low and Miller gets his pro life, military, and Tea Party voters to the polls, he has a shot at upsetting Murkowski - especially if he can get some outside money from these groups.
Bottom line - I think Miller has a reasonable chance.