Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Haley Breaks Through Barriers in SC Governor's Race

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Here are some excerpts from Walter Shapiro's primary day profile of Nikki Haley at Politics Daily:
As the front-runner in Tuesday's Republican gubernatorial primary, 38-year-old Nikki Haley is writing the most improbable political success story of 2010. In a state defined by church, flag and family, the once little-known state legislator is transcending such barriers as her Indian-American heritage (her parents are Sikhs who emigrated from the Punjab in 1963).

But in the final two weeks leading up to Tuesday's four-candidate primary, Haley has faced down the worst accusations that can be hurled at a married woman politician – unproven public charges of adultery. Smear attacks like this are supposed to prove fatal in a state that has elevated dirty politics to an art form. But even when a Republican state senator called her a "raghead," the immediate reaction appeared to be not secret nods of agreement but public embarrassment.

[...]

There will be a run-off primary June 22 if no candidate hits the 50-percent mark on Tuesday. With Haley at 43 percent in the latest poll, the GOP battle, in essence, is a fight to make it into the runoff with her. The three other GOP candidates -- all vying to prove their conservative credentials -- each suffer from a near-fatal flaw in this topsy-turvy political season.

Gresham Barrett, whose Citadel education and Army service is an asset in this military-minded state, entered the race as the winter-book favorite. "Barrett is the one everyone looked to," said GOP consultant Chip Felkel, who is not working for a gubernatorial candidate. "This should have been his race, except for two problems – being in Congress in an anti-incumbent year and voting for TARP." In an interview, Barrett conceded the political difficulties caused by his vote for the bank bailout, but added, "It was a very different situation in 2008. We had the national economy, we had the global economy, on the brink of disaster."

State attorney general and former state GOP chairman Henry McMaster, who has been running for office since the 1980s, suffers from a hard-to-shake image as a career politician. A bland candidate, prone to endlessly repeat catch phrases like "a new day for South Carolina," McMaster seems out of step with the angry anti-establishmentarian mood in South Carolina.

Andre Bauer, whom Mike Huckabee champions in a TV ad as "Tea Party before there was a Tea Party," has developed a frivolous reputation partially based on a series of high-profile speeding stops (once clocked at 101 miles an hour) as lieutenant governor. There was a fatalism in Bauer's tone as he said during our interview, "The vast majority of people voting in this election won't really know the real issues and who stands for what because it's all sound bites...If they did, Andre Bauer would win hands down."

[...]

It just goes to prove that dirty-pool politics can go too far – even in South Carolina.
Sarah Palin endorsed Nikki Haley, appeared at a rally with the candidate on the steps of the State House in South Carolina and recorded a telephone ad for her. The full PD article is here.

- JP

1 comment:

  1. Josh - just a note on your previous post on Sarah's endorsement of Branstad and whether it will help or harm her. The Public Policy Polling blog (PPP) did an analysis of this on Monday. Based on their poll of the 2012 possible presidential candidates that they did in Iowa last month, they found the following breakout of how each candidates' supporters - supported Terry Branstad (TB) or Bob Vander Plaats (BVP) for Governor:

    Romney supporters - 67% for TB; 19% for BVP
    Palin supporters - 60% for TB; 23% for BVP
    Gingrich supporters - 47% for TB; 28% for BVP
    Huckabee supporters - 33% for TB; 40% for BVP

    Clearly, Sarah knew what she was doing here - and hardly committed political suicide! Only 23% of her existing base supports BVP and she is unlikely to lose many of them. On the other hand, 33% of Huckabee's base supports TB. Therefore, Sarah is likey - on a net basis - to pick up more diaffected voters from Huckabee's TB supporters than she will lose disaffected Palin voters who support BVP to Huckabee - especially since Huckabee's current base in Iowa is larger than Palin's.

    Also, by supporting TB she stays in the mainstream of the Republican Party which is focused on the economy and she cannot not be painted as a far right candidate concerned only about social issues.

    If the general election between Branstad and Culver tightens, Branstad may look to her to help him bring any disaffected social conservatives back to his campaign. Therefore, she has possibly positioned herself to play a signifiant role in Branstad's general election. This would help her in Iowa for 2012 if she can help deliver a victory to Branstad.

    The bottom line; she has done little or no harm to herself with this endorsement - and possibly has helped herself with the endorsement if Branstad goes on to win the general. It is clear Sarah knows what she is doing!

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