The Fix: Palin and Romney could have key allies in new governors

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Aaron Blake blogs at the Washington Post's The Fix that when GOP primary voters go to the polls today to nominate candidates for governor in three of the early presidential primary states, it could have consequences for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination:

Iowa

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While Romney and Palin have both endorsed Branstad, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, is behind the insurgent conservative candidate, businessman Bob Vander Plaats. Recent polling shows Vander Plaats behind by double digits, though.

Branstad is close to another potential 2012-er - Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R). But Barbour, as chairman of the Republican Governors Association has to stay neutral in primaries. Branstad also knows Tim Pawlenty, the RGA vice chairman, but the Minnesota governor has decided to stay out of contested primaries.

For his part, Branstad stayed out of the 2008 race but has shown a willingness to endorse in past Iowa caucuses. As a state representative in 1976, he picked Ronald Reagan. He endorsed Bob Dole in 1996 and Lamar Alexander and then George W. Bush in 2000.

South Carolina

The winner of the GOP primary here will be a heavy favorite in November. The question is whether state Rep. Nikki Haley can overcome affair allegations and somehow, some way, avoid a runoff. (Once considered a long shot, that prospect is becoming more and more possible by the day.)

Haley has been endorsed by both Romney and Palin.

Romney was the first one on board, endorsing her in mid-March when she was still lost in the pack with three other, more established, male candidates. As with Branstad, the two also have a connection from 2008 as Haley was a vocal supporter of Romney's disappointing fourth-place campaign in the Palmetto State.

But when it came time to defend herself against the affair accusations in recent weeks, Haley turned to Palin, running ads and robocalls featuring the former vice presidential nominee. If Haley thinks that Palin played a major role in saving her campaign, she might feel compelled to endorse her or, at least, stay neutral.

Huckabee, again, was on the other side of his two potential 2012 opponents -- endorsing Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who is unlikely to make the runoff.

Nevada

No major potential 2012 candidate is bothering much with this state.

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The lack of involvement by 2012ers also has to do with the likelihood of the state being a walk over for Romney in the presidential primary process. With its large Mormon population, Romney won it by 37 points in 2008 and is a shoo-in for 2012, assuming he runs again.

- JP