WRS Analysis of the SRLC Straw Poll results

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Tyler Harber at Wilson Research Strategies has performed a detailed analysis of the Saturday SRLC straw poll results:

The SRLC 2012 Presidential Straw Poll demonstrates that organization matters. Both Romney and Paul were strongly prepared for the conference, buying tickets for supporters, hosting events, and printing literature, posters and stickers.

Unlike Romney, Palin spoke at the conference to a packed house. She clearly excited attendees, but Palin’s straw poll performance suffered significantly due to a lack of organization.

Here are some of his findings:

Paul’s support was largely artificial and unrepresentative

"...Paul places dead-last as attendees’ second choice indicating that the votes that Ron Paul received were almost exclusively from people his organization bused in for the event."

[...]

"The majority of Paul’s ballot support is primarily young men ages 35 or younger, as the Texas Congressman earns only token support among older attendees. This is another key data-point that show Paul’s inability to earn support from attendees that are representative of the primary electorate at-large."

Gingrich, Palin and Romney receive support from McCain voters

"... Those supporting McCain in 2008 supported Gingrich, Palin and Romney similarly."

Romney unable to carry his full support base

"Despite making a strong showing, Romney only earns the support of 54% of attendees who supported him in 2008."

[...]

Huckabee voters desert him, choosing Palin and Newt

"Huckabee only earns 20% of the votes from people supporting him 2008..."

[...]

Palin and Newt earn votes from supporters of virtually all the 2008 candidates

"Palin and Gingrich earn similar support from nearly the full spectrum of supporters of 2008 candidates, while Romney draws strength from his original supporters in addition to McCain and Giuliani voters."

Sarah Palin won the Lone Star State, capturing 30% of the votes of Texans attending the event, and she was the first choice of voters in the 55 to 64 age group.

Full crosstabs are here in a PDF document.

FiveThirtyEight has also analyzed the straw poll numbers, as we reported in our Monday Morning Sarahcuda Bites here. People sure seem to have gone to a lot of trouble to examine a poll that doesn't mean much. Oh, well...

- JP

Monday Morning Sarahcuda Bites for April 12, 2010

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While the Left just loves Tina Fey's reprise of her Sarah Palin impersonation as guest host of SNL Saturday and can't stop talking about it on Al Gore's internets, real grown ups can see that the old Fey schtick ain't what she used to be. The Hillbuzz boyzz saw it coming before the show even aired:

"The funny thing is, the joke’s on you, Tina. You’re the one who said you’d never play Palin again if your life depended on it. Well, tonight you are playing Palin again apparently. Does your career depend upon it?"

And Big Hollywood says Tina Should have kept her word and kept the character retired, because what were once funny jokes are now simply mean-spirited insults:

"In 2008, SNL was able to affect the Presidential election with provocative original satire; you could debate what was in their messages, but not that the messages were delivered effectively. Now they’re just piling on with dated Palin-is-dumb jokes (such as a winking joke, a writing on hand joke, a death panel joke, a Katie Couric interview joke…). Yawn. Fake Sarah Palin has lost her edge."

We've noticed that the Left seems to go ga-ga over television characters and get more worked up over them than they do about real-life situations. They spent weeks defending the "Family Guy" Palin smear after Gov. Palin mentioned it once and had already moved on. Now the Tina Fey guest shot on SNL is the biggest thing on Planet Leftune for them. It must give them great comfort at a time when Sarah Palin pwned the entire Obama Administration on nuclear strategy.

Boston radio talker Michael Graham proves that "An Angry Progressive’s Picture Is Worth A Thousand 'Angry, Right-Wing' Words" (h/t: Glenn Reynolds).

Over on Planet Ronulus, the Ronulans willingly concede that Sarah Palin "definitely has the largest number of fans" on Facebook, but opine that the 2008 vice presidential candidate has "little appeal among middle of the road type people." Then they claim that this is "not a problem" for Ron Paul. Say what? We must assume Paul's great popularity with middle-of-the-roaders is what accounts for all the Primaries he won in 2008. Oh, wait...

At FiveThirtyEight, where they play with numbers in all sorts of interesting ways, Tom Schaller has calculated the "Borda Count" for the vote-getters in the Saturdays SRLC straw poll. These figures are arrived at by factoring the first-choice and second-choice preferences for each candidate. Here's what Tom came up with:


Check out the Geeks on Caffeine take on SarahPAC's "Take Back the 20" target map iconery. Heh. Speaking of SarahPAC, first quarter disclosure reports for PACs are due this week.

Even at this late date, people are still writing reviews of Gov. Palin's Going Rogue memoir. A brief review by the family-oriented Mourning to Dancing blog is here.

At Undernews, the online report of the Progressive Review, Sam Smith declares that "Liberalism is dead" and suggests a "progressive populist" approach instead:

"Unconvinced voters - from Tea Party members to the apathetic - would be regarded as a market and not a menace. It would be the job of the progressive populist politics to change their minds. This means replacing the MSNBC model of 'aren't they stupid' with what the Quakers called the concept of "reciprocal liberty," i.e. you can't have your freedom unless I have mine. In other words, all sides need to rediscover the idea of tolerance towards those with whom we disagree."

"There is nothing to be gained by simply being the mirror image of the Tea Parties, but a lot to be gained by changing the nature and tone of the debate. There is also absolutely nothing wrong with going after Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin, but to declare all their fans terminally ill is the death knell for one's own politics."

Good luck with that, Sam. The radical left, armed as they are with their Alinsky Rules, control all of the territory to the left of center, and they simply won't allow cooler heads to prevail. They're determined to go over the cliff, and anyone who doesn't want to get on board that bus will get thrown under it.

- JP

Newt Gingrich: Sarah Palin 'personifies courage'

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Interviewed at SRLC by CNN chief political correspondent Candy Crowley, Newt Gingrich had some good things to say about Sarah Palin:

"Sarah Palin is tremendously important right now, I mean for maybe 40 percent of the country, she personifies courage, clarity."

[...]

"She's attractive, she's articulate, she has energy... Watch the size of her crowds…And I think whether that translates into something bigger later or whether she's just a very significant person for the rest of her life, she is a real player, nobody should underestimate her."

[...]

"I think she has the potential to fill a niche for a very long time, particularly in an age of cable television and talk radio when you can build your particular market and your audience, and they can love you and come to your meetings and do things with you, and she's done, I think the last couple months she's been very impressive..."

The full Gingrich interview will air Sunday on CNN's "State of The Union."

- JP

The SRLC Straw Poll Is No Big Deal

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Contrary to how some have reported, the SRLC straw poll is, to paraphrase Joe Biden, no big effin' deal. Consider that only half of those attending the conference even bothered to vote in the poll. Consider further that the winners of these straw polls rarely end up winning the GOP presidential nomination. Bill Frist (remember him?) won the last SRLC straw poll four years ago.

Nevertheless, some potential candidates make considerable investments in winning the poll. Evangelicals for Romney and the Ron Paul forces gave away free tickets, books and other goodies. SarahPAC spent a mere pittance by comparison, choosing only to put a bag of caribou jerky on each delegate's chair. In terms of bang for the buck, SarahPAC seems to have gotten more than its money's worth, as she finished third in the first choice vote and second in the second choice honors, finishing just 9 votes out of first place.

Much analysis of the straw poll will follow in the next few days, and then it will fade into insignificance. This far out from 2012, presidential polls don't mean much, whether they be made of straw or science. The race for the White House has barely even begun, and it's a marathon, not a sprint. The starter still has his pistol in the air. Shoot, (Oops, we said "shoot") the race doesn't even get interesting until the Iowa caucuses, and that's some 20 months away.

So just for Schlitz and grins, here are the SRLC 2010 Straw Poll Results, courtesy of Wilson Research Strategies:

1. If the primary election for president were held today, for whom would you vote? Please check the box by the candidate of your choice.

Mitt Romney 24% (439 votes)
Ron Paul 24% (438 votes)
Sarah Palin 18% (330 votes)
Newt Gingrich 18% (321 votes)
Mike Huckabee 4%
Tim Pawlenty 3%
Mike Pence 3%
Rick Santorum 2%
Gary Johnson 1%

2. Who would be your second choice in the Republican Primary Election for president?

Newt Gingrich 19% (339 votes)
Sarah Palin 18% (332 votes)
Mitt Romney 13% (242 votes)
Mike Huckabee 10% (178 votes)
Mike Pence 8%
Rick Santorum 7%
Gary Johnson 6%
Tim Pawlenty 6%
Ron Paul 5%

- JP

Media Reaction to Sarah Palin's SRLC Address

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Local media coverage of Gov. Palin's SRLC speech Friday was overwhelmingly positive...

Michelle Millhollan wrote in The Advocate:

"It’s Gov. Bobby Jindal's state but it was Sarah Palin’s crowd... at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference."

Bill Barrow of The Times-Picayune observed:

"The cumulative effect of her speech was electrify the 3,000 people who filled the Hilton Riverside's Grand Ballroom, which gave her a minute-long standing ovation at the start and conclusion of her address."

WWL-TV's Michael Luke reported

"The rising star of the GOP, Palin’s presence electrified the crowd, as they often interrupted her speech with applause. In true rock star form, she even signed autographs before leaving the stage amid cheers of 'Run, Sarah, run' as she walked off the stage waving to the crowd."

As for the national media...

CNN Producer Peter Hamby was impressed that Gov. Palin's address focused on a policy issue:

"Her speeches are typically loaded with partisan zingers and Obama-bashing, but for the first time since the 2008 presidential campaign, Sarah Palin delivered a speech that focused as much on policy ideas as it did on political combat... Without shying away from heated partisan rhetoric, Palin spent the latter half of her talk expounding on differences between Democratic and Republican energy policies, a comfortable topic for the former Alaska governor and onetime chairwoman of the state's Oil and Gas Conservation Commission."

Brian Montopoli of CBS News filed an amazingly snark-free story:

"Palin was greeted with overwhelming enthusiasm by the delegates here, who entered the hall to find Alaskan caribou jerky waiting on their seats. Hundreds of flashbulbs went off when Palin came onstage, and standing ovations and chants of 'Sarah, Sarah, Sarah' broke out throughout her remarks.

Washington Post Staff Writer Amy Gardner's report even admitted that Sarah Palin's appeal is more broadly based than she has previously been given credit for:

"In her second major speech since she appeared at the inaugural National Tea Party Convention in February, Palin's blistering criticism of President Obama was greeted with wild enthusiasm, providing evidence that Palin can reach establishment Republican voters."

Leave it to the bastion of bias The New York Times to come out of left field with a criticism they reserved solely for Sarah and no other SRLC speaker. Times political blogger Jeff Zeleny wondered:

"So what did Ms. Palin have to say about the news of the day: The new Supreme Court vacancy and Representative Bart Stupak’s decision not to seek re-election?"

We can't think of a single reason why Gov. Palin's speech should have mentioned either resignation. It was a political speech, not a commentary on the latest news of the day. No, this was just a another bizarre pretext for the leftist rag to attack Gov. Palin, as Cubachi pointed out:

"The NY Times, who keeps reporting on Sarah Palin’s low approval ratings and non-importance in politics, is indignant that Palin has not discussed the retirements of Rep. Bart Stupak nor Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens. So now they are questioning whether Palin will run in 2012, or if her speech is dated. She just responded to Obama’s charges against her about having no knowledge about nuclear arms policy. Keep sliming it up, NY Times."

WaPo blogger Dave Weigel noted that SarahPAC distributed teriyaki sticks with caribou meat to the delegates and even published a photo of the snack.

Jillian Bandes, National Political Reporter for Townhall.com wrote her lede from the angle of the 2012 presidential race:

"Palin didn't hint at her 2012 plans in her keynote address to SRLC, but she did provide some meaty thoughts on energy policy, possibly her most important campaign issue if she does decide to run."

At The Atlantic, D.B. Grady also looked at the Palin speech through the lens of 2012. After firing a few barbs at Gov. Palin in his op-ed, Brady concluded:

"Much of her speech was devoted to energy policy, her strong suit in a potential presidential run... The crowd leapt to its feet when she said, 'There's nothing stopping us from achieving energy independence that a good old fashioned election can't fix.' Whether or not she is part of that election is unclear. She made no mention of her plans in 2012. But judging from the reaction of the party faithful present this weekend, it would be foolish to dismiss her out of hand. When she left the stage, much of the audience followed, massing outside for an autograph or a handshake. Few returned. If she wins the SRLC straw poll this weekend, it won't be because she wooed the crowd. It will be because she attracted the crowd in the first place."

In his Associated Press piece, Ron Fournier made Gov. Palin's speech secondary to Bobby Jindal's address, with a lede about the Lousiana's governor's remarks that he's not running in 2012:

"Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal welcomed several potential Republican presidential candidates to his state while insisting that he won't be joining them in the 2012 race."

- JP

Are More Palin policy speeches in the cards? 'Absolutely,' she says

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CNN Producer Peter Hamby caught up with Sarah Palin in New Orleans after her well-received speech at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference. Hamby only had time to ask the former Alaska governor a couple of questions before aides ushered her into an SUV waiting to take her to the airport. Hamby inquired of the 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate whether she would be delivering more policy addresses in the future:

"Absolutely," Palin told CNN in a brief interview outside her New Orleans hotel on Friday. "The more of that, the better."

[...]

Palin, emerging from the Windsor Court Hotel wearing a zip-up NASA sweater over her suit, told CNN she had a "blast" addressing the conference and promised to continue with a policy-oriented message.

"It was fun to talk to people of something of substance, like energy, that is so appreciated by these folks because they know that unless we have this energy independence, we will not be prosperous, we will not be secure," she said. "That's what I wanted to concentrate on today."

The next major appearance on Gov. Palin's calendar is a Tea Party in Boston Wednesday of next week.

- JP

Full Video: Gov. Sarah Palin's SRLC Speech

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Once again, TheRightScoop delivers!

- JP

Video Clip: Sarah Returns Obama's Fire From New Orleans

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Gov. Palin explains The Obama Doctrine:



Oh shoot, she said "shoot"...

- JP

Sarah Still Steadfastly Supports Steele

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Last night on 'Hannity,' host Sean Hannity asked Sarah Palin if there was a split in the Republican Party between her and Chairman Michael Steele. Her reply:

"I support Michael Steele. I am glad that he is the leader of the party, administratively. If those within the party are choosing to go in different directions, his term is up in eight months, and they can vote somebody else in. I think he's doing a great job. Michael Steele is an outsider. The machine, I think, is tough to penetrate. I know that Michele [Bachmann] and I both have kind of felt that in our careers. I think it's been good to have an independent outsider trying to create some change in the Republican Party."

Real Clear Politics has the video clip here.

Politico reported last week that Gov. Palin had asked the RNC to stop advertising that she would attend an RNC fundraiser being held in conjunction with the Southern Republican Leadership Conference.

This is a smart answer on Gov. Palin's part. She stood her ground and didn't allow RNC to use her to promote a function she was not taking part in. But by publicly showing her support for Steele, she proved once again to GOP insiders that she can be a team player. It would be foolish for her to call for Steele's scalp, as that would only play into the hands of the Democrats. If Steele can mange to come out on top of his situation, he will owe her big time. Finally, she's correct in that Steele's term will expire in a few months time, so it would serve only the Democrats' purposes to try to oust him now, even if she had lost confidence in him.

Recall that Ronald Reagan never publicly disclosed his real opinions of either Gerald Ford or George H. W. Bush, but he didn't think that highly of either man. Sarah Palin is wisely following both the Gipper's example and his eleventh commandment.

- JP

Elephants On The Bayou: An SRLC Preview:

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Our friends at US for Palin will be live streaming Gov. Palin's SRLC speech here:



US for Palin contributor Adrienne Ross will be live blogging from the event in New Orleans also at Motivation Truth. Both websites are part of the Blogs 4 Palin blogging community.

And according to Taegan Goddard, C-SPAN will be cablecasting the entire event.

Mark Barabak at the LA Times has a preview of the four-day conference:

When Republican activists gather in New Orleans for three days of strategizing and speeches starting Thursday, one big attraction will present a big question: Is Sarah Palin angling for the party's 2012 presidential nomination?

The former Alaska governor will join several other possible White House contenders addressing 3,000 or so party loyalists at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference. Also appearing are former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia; Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour; former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum; and, by video, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

[...]

Her appearance will be one of a growing number of political speeches Palin has given since leaving the governor's office, publishing a best-seller and launching herself as a TV personality. The question is whether Friday's appearance is a step toward a White House run, or simply another marketing effort -- not that one necessarily precludes the other.

"It helps her celebrity," said David Carney, a GOP strategist attending the conference. "It also exposes her to 50, 60, 100 people from different states who will go back to their Republican Central Committee meetings . . . or the steering committees for various candidates . . . and say, 'We need to get Gov. Palin out here for our Lincoln Day dinner, or let's have a rally and invite her.'"

His full piece is here, and it comes with the usual lamestream media bias warning.

Elsewhere in the LSM, David Chalian of ABC News poses the question that the Romney and Pawlenty teams must have pondered:

"If Sarah Palin, with her mega-wattage superstar status sucking up all the available oxygen in the room, is it worth sharing a stage and competing for some attention?"

Ed Morrissey, who will be in New Orleans to report on the convention, sees this as a test for Gov. Palin:

"The test may not be of her as much as it is of her intent. If she decides to run, she would be formidable, with a large base of passionate supporters. So far, though, she has mainly signaled an interest in activism and in expanding her media reach. The SRLC may give a clearer idea what she has planned for the next two years."

In her SRLC speech Friday, Sarah Palin is expected to specifically address President Obama’s energy policy. At The Cypress Times, John Winder suggests the governor's address in New Orleans "may very well be her act of throwing down the gauntlet to officially challenge the status quo thus setting the stage for a dramatic 2012 election."

The Washington Post's newest blogger Dave Weigel has a post up that looks at some of the pre-conference maneuvering going on regarding the SRLC straw poll. Weigel reported last month that the Ronulans snapped up 800 tickets for the event to make sure their guy gets the long straw in the poll.



- JP

Ron Devito: Why Gov Palin Chose SRLC over CPAC

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Good post from our friend and colleague Ron Devito at US for Palin on why Sarah Palin chose to attend SLRC but not CPAC:

The John Birch Society has indeed co-sponsored CPAC 2010 (Hahn, 2009, ¶1). Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post cited this factor as one reason why Governor Palin declined CPAC (Cillizza, 2010, ¶1). Indeed, the fringe elements of the right appeared to have taken over CPAC under Mitt Romney’s nose...

[...]

Shenanigans such as the Federal Express conflict of interest and catering to the lunatic fringe diminish the value of this once prestigious gathering of conservatives. Keene rather than taking splinters out of Governor Palin’s eyes might do well to take the planks out of his own. Those Sarah Palin posters were snatched up so fast, because those who wanted her image yearn for a leader to carry Ronald Reagan’s torch.

Good post. Read it all here.

Sarah Palin's political instincts appear to have served her well yet again with her decision to pass on CPAC. She was in good company, as Mark Levin also decided not to attend:

"I was invited to be the opening speaker at Saturday’s CPAC session. I had accepted but then, to my amazement, I learned that the John Birch Society would be one of many co-sponsors. This takes the big-tent idea many steps too far for me. So, I withdrew. Apparently, others were not so moved. That’s fine. But it wasn’t for me. Bill Buckley and Barry Goldwater, among others, chased the Birchers from the movement decades ago. And they’re not a part of the movement. So, to give them a booth at CPAC was boneheaded."

Another of our blogging colleagues, M. Joseph Sheppard at Recovering Liberal addresses the media myth pushed by the lamestream media regarding CPAC, SRLC and Gov. Palin:

When Palin declined to speak at CPAC the media critics attacked her on two levels. Firstly her "avarice" for only (supposedly) speaking at events where she gets $100,000 and secondly for her supposed poor political judgement in passing up an opportunity to speak to the opinion makers and movers and shakers of the Republican party.

The avarice slur is of course well exploded, as one example amongst many, Palin will not be paid to speak at the forthcoming Southern Republican Leadership Conference . In respect of which it is an absolute delight to see a Palin critic having to publicly apologize for her poorly researched article stating Palin was being paid-these people are so caught up in their bias they rush into print and make fools of themselves.

As for Sarah Palin's chance to address the movers and the shakers of the GOP, that comes, as Ron said in a few weeks in New Orleans at SRLC. There will of course be plenty of other opportunities for her as well. 

Related: Gov. Palin wasn't the only potential 2012 GOP presidential candidate who skipped CPAC this year. Mike Huckabee also declined to attend, for his own reasons.

Update: CPAC critics have coined a phrase -- "Brokeback Convention" -- to describe the 2010 event. Why? Because so many establishment conservatives seem to be saying to David Keene, "I just can't quit you." And Jerry Wilson has the final word (a thousand words, actually, if a picture is still worth that many) on why Sarah Palin was wise to skip CPAC, at Goldfish and Clowns.

- JP

Quote of the Day (February 20, 2010)

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A.B. Stoddard:

"A correction to my previous post is in order, and I only wish it had come more quickly than this. Sarah Palin is not being paid to speak at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference from April 8-10 in New Orleans. I sincerely regret the error."

- JP

Bayou Buzz: The race is on, and Sarah's a runner

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Jeff Crouere at Louisiana blog Bayou Buzz says Sarah Palin is the only candidate with the support and talent to lead the GOP to victory in 2012:

Is Palin interested in running for President? Yes, I believe that she will be a candidate for President, which is why she decided to address the Southern Republican Leadership Conference (SRLC) in New Orleans in April. This is a major development and ensures that the event will be wildly successful. The conference will be the first step in that long path toward the 2012 GOP nomination. According to SRLC Executive Director Charlie Davis, “The Southern Republican Leadership Conference is the most prominent Republican event outside of a Republican National Convention. It is held every two to four years and brings the top Republican activists, donors, candidates, and elected officials together for three days of training, briefings, receptions and speeches from the leaders of the Republican Party.”

At the SRLC, there will be an important 2012 GOP presidential straw poll among attendees from 14 southern states. By participating, Palin is indicating that she wants to win this poll and raise support for a potential presidential campaign.

Crouere says that Gov. Palin is simply taking the next logical step after the success of her Going Rogue memoir and book tour. He cites a year-end Gallup poll which showed the 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate in a statistical tie as one of the two most admired women in the country and recent polls which indicate that she has closed the gap with President Obama in popularity.

Crouere, a New Orleans native, sees Sarah Palin's decision to attend the SRLC conference as more than just is a boost to the event's organizers, but to all those who want her become the 2012 Republican presidential nominee.

Read the original op-ed here.

- JP

Sarah Palin says no to Keene's CPAC, yes to SRLC

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Politico's Andy Barr reports:

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Pain is turning down an invitation to speak at one high-profile conservative gathering while accepting another.

Palin is declining an invitation to address the Conservative Political Action Conference next month because, a source said, she does not want to be affiliated with the longtime organizer of the traditional movement confab.

At issue is the role of David Keene, head of the American Conservative Union which organizes CPAC.

Keene has said some negative things about Gov. Palin, and CPAC has used her name to promote past conferences that the 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate never agreed to attend. In addition, Keene has been criticized in conservative circles for his dealings with FedEx, and he endorsed liberal Arlen Specter when the Senator was still a Republican over conservative Pat Toomey in a GOP primary.

Gov. Palin will, however, speak at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans in April. On CNN's Political Ticker, Producer Pete Hamby referred to the SRLC as a "higher profile" event than CPAC that "could have implications for the 2012 presidential race":

Palin will speak at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans, a major gathering of Republican officials, donors and activists from 14 southern states, organizers announced Thursday.

"I'm looking forward to addressing conservative activists from across the south at the 2010 Southern Republican Leadership Conference," Palin said in a statement. "This is a great opportunity to listen and speak to those who are helping to set the direction of our party."

A Palin confidante said the governor is not being paid to speak at the event.

Political watchers will be paying close attention, and not just because several potential presidential candidates are expected to attend. The SRLC - "the most prominent Republican event outside of a Republican National Convention," the organization boasts - also conducts a presidential straw poll.

Politico's Ben Smith says the New Orleans event will be "the first real chance to gauge the interest in her candidacy among the core of Republican activists and operatives." The SRLC press release is here.

- JP