Tom Emmer makes it a race in Minnesota

*
Palin-endorsed Minnesota gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer has come from 9 points down last month to lead his Democrat opponent Mark Dayton by a point in a new poll by Rasmussen Reports:

Republican Tom Emmer and Democrat Mark Dayton are virtually tied now in the race to be Minnesota’s next governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Minnesota Voters shows Emmer earning 42% support to Dayton’s 41% when leaners are included. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is a distant third with nine percent (9%) of the vote. Six percent (6%) like some other candidate in the race, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

The findings move the race to a Toss-Up from Leans Democratic in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

[...]

Last month, with leaners absent from the totals, Dayton held a 45% to 36% lead over Emmer just after both candidates had won four-way primary races. Horner, who defeated four other hopefuls to win the nomination of the party that sent Jesse Ventura to the governor’s mansion, earned 10% support at the time.

The Republican Governors Association (RGA) should see a significant increase in its membership next year. Minnesotan Ed Morrissey comments on the race at Hot Air.

- JP

Palin-endorsed Tom Emmer closes the gap on Mark Dayton

*
Tom Emmer has closed the polling gap with his Democrat opponent in Minnesota.

Ed Morrissey comments:

In the wake of the primary fight in Minnesota, former Senator Mark Dayton took a rather large lead against Republican Tom Emmer in the gubernatorial race. DFLers here crowed, claiming that the results showed that Emmer would gain no traction here after eight years of Tim Pawlenty, but perhaps the times aren’t a-changing here after all. A new Survey USA poll shows that the Dayton lead has all but dissipated, with Emmer moving into a virtual tie among likely voters:

In an election for Minnesota Governor today, 09/15/10, DFL candidate Mark Dayton and Republican Tom Emmer finish effectively even, within the survey’s theoretical margin of sampling error, according to this latest exclusive KSTP-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Today, Dayton gets 38%, Emmer 36%; Dayton’s nominal 2-point advantage may or may not be statistically significant. But: Independence Party candidate Tom Horner today gets 18% of the vote, stronger yet among older, more reliable voters, complicating the calculus either major-party campaign needs to capture the open seat.

[...]

What happened? In the first place, the previous polling reflected the interest from a high-profile, competitive DFL primary race, in which Dayton barely edged Margaret Anderson Kelliher for the nomination. Emmer spent the summer fundraising and organizing rather than advertising, saving his money for the general election. Dayton outspent Emmer by 16:1 during the two months prior to those initial polls.

Since then, Emmer has released a detailed plan to solve the budget gap and remake government. He has run a solid campaign, putting out a positive message. The Republican Party has taken the lead on focusing attention on Dayton’s record as Senator, which prompted Time Magazine to call him the worst Senator in Congress in 2006.

(More...)

Sarah Palin endorsed Emmer April 29.

- JP

Does Sarah Palin have the Midas Touch?

- by Eric Dondero
*
The Midas touch, or the gift of profiting from whatever one undertakes, is named for a legendary king of Phrygia. Midas was granted the power to transmute whatever he touched into gold. -- MythWeb.com


Every Republican primary candidate Sarah Palin endorses turns to Gold.

Consider:

Five weeks ago, she broke with the GOP leadership, and backed libertarian Republican Rand Paul in his primary against establishment-backed candidate Trey Grayson.

Result - Paul wins by 24%


Three weeks ago, Governor Palin traveled to South Carolina to campaign with underdog Nikki Haley who had been languishing in a distant 4th place. Days after, a poll was released showing State Rep. Haley jolting to a comfortable 10 point lead of the entire pack including both the State's AG, and the Lt. Governor.

In Minnesota she enthusiastically endorsed "Hockey Dad" Tom Emmer who had consistently been polling in 2nd place. He soon after won the support of GOP delegates in convention, and he is now virtually assured to be the nominee. What's more he's comfortably ahead of all potential Democrats in recent polls for the Fall.

And now this... Sarah Palin took some serious heat from hard-line social conservatives for her endorsement of pro-business/fiscal conservative Carly Fiorina in California's red hot Senate primary.

From The Daily Caller:

Two weeks ago former Congressman Tom Campbell held a 11 percentage point lead over Carly Fiorina in the GOP governor’s primary. That lead has now incredibly evaporated into a 23 point deficit...

In the Republican primary for US Senator, support for former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is up sharply in the past 2 weeks, from 24% on 05/10/10 to 46% today 05/24/10. Fiorina’s support has more than doubled among women, seniors, Hispanics, the less educated, and in the Inland Empire. During these 2 weeks, Former Congressman Tom Campbell’s support dropped 12 points, from 35% on 05/10/10 to 23% today 05/24/10.

Overlooked, Fiorina, Paul, Emmer, and Haley all share a common bond: fiscal conservatism and staunch support for limited government policies with a de-emphasis of social issues. Indeed Paul and Emmer are explicitly libertarian Republicans. And Paul, Emmer and Halley al have strong Tea Party ties.

Gov. Palin's long held free market economics over divisive social issues libertarianism is finally triumphing much to the chagrin of her vitriolic critics on the Left, but even among her doubters - mostly establishment conservatives - on the Right.

- E.D.

Regular contributor Eric Dondero is a Texan and the Publisher/Editor of Libertarian Republican.

Quote of the Day (May 7, 2010)

*
CQ Politics:

"Republican Tom Emmer, who secured the GOP nomination for governor [of Minnesota] with a little endorsement help from Sarah Palin, now is leading all of his possible Democratic opponents, according to a Survey USA poll conducted for KSTP-TV."

- JP

Palin-endorsed candidates gaining momentum

*
Two candidates endorsed by Sarah Palin are seeing their respective campaigns in blue states gaining some steam.

State Rep. Tom Emmer, who was endorsed just yesterday by Gov. Palin in the Minnesota race for governor, has secured the endorsement of the Republican Party as well at the state GOP convention:

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that Emmer's chief rival, state Rep. Marty Seifert, has conceded after two rounds of ballotting showed Emmer was the clear leader.

Seifert had said before the convention that he'd stand aside and not force a primary if he lost today in Minneapolis. That means Emmer will be able to start focusing on November while Democrats have to wait for the outcome of an August primary before they can start campaigning against Emmer.

Gov. Palin tweeted her Congratulations to Emmer just minutes ago and thanked Seifert for "unifying the party." CQ Politics is calling the general election race a toss up.

In Pennsylvania, Tim Burns has pulled ahead to a six-point lead over his Democrat opponent Mark Critz in the contest to win the U.S. House seat which was held so long by the late John Murtha, according to a survey conducted by Research 2000 for Daily Kos:

Critz, who served on Murtha's staff before the congressman's death, takes 40 percent of the vote in the poll compared with 46 percent for Republican businessman Tim Burns.

The poll shows President Barack Obama's favorability number in Pennsylvania's 12h Congressional District at a dismal 38 percent, with 55 percent of voters viewing the president unfavorably. The White House-backed health care reform law fares even worse: just 34 percent of voters say they would prefer to back a candidate who supports and wants to improve the law, compared with 48 percent who say they'd favor one who supports repeal.

The poll was conducted from April 26 -- the day Gov. Palin endorsed Burns -- through April 28, 2010. Though the Politico story doesn't mention the endorsement, Stacy McCain reported Thursday that Burns had raised more than $80,000 in campaign contributions in the 72 hours following the nod from Sarah Palin.

We believe that we're seeing the real "Palin Factor" at work now. It will be most interesting so see how the other candidates who have won her endorsement will be doing in their respective races.

- JP