Political Gold: Sarah Palin’s Facebook endorsements

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Taking a look at the endorsements Sarah Palin has made on Facebook, Daily Caller political reporter Alex Pappas found that a nod from the 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate can be the stuff of political gold. Such has been the case for Tim Burns, whose congressional campaign raised $80,000 in the 72 hours immediately following Gov. Palin's endorsement. Even a relatively unknown candidate like Sean Duffy saw his campaign coffers swell by about $40,000 after getting the Palin stamp of approval:

A review of Palin’s Facebook page shows that the former Alaska governor has endorsed 15 candidates on the social network. All but four are men, and all but one are Republican (Palin supported the conservative party candidate in the NY-23 congressional race).

For better-known candidates, a Palin endorsement carries the implied support of the grassroots Tea Party activists. Sometimes those endorsements come with personal appearances. Palin’s endorsement of Rick Perry in Texas, for example, helped attract 10,000 people to a rally earlier this year on Super Bowl Sunday for his campaign for governor. Perry defeated Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison several weeks later.

In the case of Sean Duffy, a small-town district attorney, Palin’s support may have been decisive. Duffy was challenging Rep. David Obey, a Wisconsin Democrat who is among the longest-serving House members. After Palin took to Facebook to endorse Duffy in February, his fundraising exploded. About 300 individual contributions arrived the first day. At the end of the first week, Duffy had raised $30,000, with thousands more arriving the following weeks. By the beginning of May, Obey had announced his retirement.

[...]

Here are the 15 candidates endorsed by Palin over the social networking website:

• Susana Martinez for governor of New Mexico, May 16
• Nikki Haley for governor of South Carolina, May 14
• Carly Fiorina for Senate in California, May 6
• Tom Emmer for governor of Minnesota, April 29
• Tim Burns for Congress in Pennsylvania, April 26
• Vaughn Ward for Congress in Idaho, March 29
• Adam Kinzinger for congress in Illinois, March 29
• Allen West for Congress in Florida, March 29
• Sean Duffy for Congress in Wisconsin, Feb. 17
• Rick Perry for governor of Texas, Jan. 20
• Michele Bachmann for Congress in Minnesota, Jan. 20
• John McCain for Senate in Arizona, Jan. 20
• Chris Christie for governor of New Jersey, Oct. 27
• Bob McDonnell for governor of Virginia, Oct. 27
• Doug Hoffman for Congress in New York, Oct. 22

The significant Palin endorsement of Rand Paul is missing from Pappas' article, but it wasn't made on her Facebook page. Instead, Gov. Palin let Dr. Paul's campaign make the official announcement, which it did formally on February 1, after Paul broke the news a couple of days earlier.

And although she didn't formally endorse Scott Brown before the fact, the Democrats and other leftists certainly did all they could to try to tie Brown to Sarah Palin in hopes that the effort would spoil his chances in Blue Massachusetts. The negative attack failed, and Gov. Palin posted a Facebook Note on January 19 congratulating Brown for his victory in the special election.

Also not included in Pappas' analysis is the "Take Back the 20" list of Palin targets issued by SarahPAC (and posted on Facebook Notes March 23) which constitutes virtual endorsements for the opponents of the 20 Congressional candidates named. Rep. Alan Mulhollan, a 14-Term incumbent Democrat, was defeated in the West Virginia primary race.

Just how well the Palin endorsements are working out for the endorsees will ultimately be judged when the ballots are counted. For two of those candidates, the first test comes today. In Kentucky, Rand Paul carries not only an endorsement from Sarah Palin, but a double-digit lead in the polls into the GOP primary showdown against Trey Grayson in the race for Jim Bunning's seat in the U.S. Senate. And Tim Burns goes into the Congressional special election against Democrat and former Murtha staffer Mark Critz in Pennsylvania with a one-point poll lead and confirmation from Gov. Palin.

- JP

Palin-endorsed candidates gaining momentum

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Two candidates endorsed by Sarah Palin are seeing their respective campaigns in blue states gaining some steam.

State Rep. Tom Emmer, who was endorsed just yesterday by Gov. Palin in the Minnesota race for governor, has secured the endorsement of the Republican Party as well at the state GOP convention:

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that Emmer's chief rival, state Rep. Marty Seifert, has conceded after two rounds of ballotting showed Emmer was the clear leader.

Seifert had said before the convention that he'd stand aside and not force a primary if he lost today in Minneapolis. That means Emmer will be able to start focusing on November while Democrats have to wait for the outcome of an August primary before they can start campaigning against Emmer.

Gov. Palin tweeted her Congratulations to Emmer just minutes ago and thanked Seifert for "unifying the party." CQ Politics is calling the general election race a toss up.

In Pennsylvania, Tim Burns has pulled ahead to a six-point lead over his Democrat opponent Mark Critz in the contest to win the U.S. House seat which was held so long by the late John Murtha, according to a survey conducted by Research 2000 for Daily Kos:

Critz, who served on Murtha's staff before the congressman's death, takes 40 percent of the vote in the poll compared with 46 percent for Republican businessman Tim Burns.

The poll shows President Barack Obama's favorability number in Pennsylvania's 12h Congressional District at a dismal 38 percent, with 55 percent of voters viewing the president unfavorably. The White House-backed health care reform law fares even worse: just 34 percent of voters say they would prefer to back a candidate who supports and wants to improve the law, compared with 48 percent who say they'd favor one who supports repeal.

The poll was conducted from April 26 -- the day Gov. Palin endorsed Burns -- through April 28, 2010. Though the Politico story doesn't mention the endorsement, Stacy McCain reported Thursday that Burns had raised more than $80,000 in campaign contributions in the 72 hours following the nod from Sarah Palin.

We believe that we're seeing the real "Palin Factor" at work now. It will be most interesting so see how the other candidates who have won her endorsement will be doing in their respective races.

- JP

Stacy McCain: Sarah Palin Lights Up Pennsylvania House Race

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At the American Spectator's AmSpec blog, Stacy McCain notes how donations to Tim Burns' campaign have soared in the three days since the candidate received Sarah Palin's endorsement:

Liberals can sneer at Sarah Palin to their heart's content, but the former Alaska governor's star power is a supernova for GOP congressional candidates. In the first 72 hours after Palin's Facebook endorsement of Tim Burns -- now less than three weeks away from a May 18 special election in the late Jack Murtha's district -- the Pennsylvania Republican raised more than $80,000, campaign sources told me Wednesday night in Johnstown, Pa.

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Some of Palin's supporters were deeply hurt by Quin Hillyer's recent criticism, but as for me, I still remember those Pennsylvanians standing in the cold October wind. Whatever Quin or anyone else says, the 2008 vice-presidential candidate has the kind of unequalled political star power that may prove to be the GOP's most valuable asset in key campaigns during this crucial mid-term election year.

It's good to see at least someone at the Spectator doesn't have a clouded vision. TAS needs more folks on staff like RSM. Ready Stacy's full AmSpec post here and a related post on his own blog, The Other McCain, here.

- JP