Will Palin backers vote 3rd party if she isn’t nominated? (Updated)

Something for the Vichy Republicans who attack her to consider
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According to the findings of a new Rasmussen Reports national survey, nearly half (46 percent) of Likely Republican Primary Voters who support Sarah Palin for president say they are at least somewhat likely to vote third-party if she isn’t nominated by the GOP. 22 percent of them say it is Very Likely:

That puts the GOP in a tight spot since one-third (33%) of all likely primary voters say Palin is the front-runner they least hope wins the party’s presidential nomination.

Among all likely Republican Primary voters, 35% say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for a third-party candidate if their favorite candidate doesn’t win the nomination, with 13% who are Very Likely to do so. Most GOP Primary voters (56%) still say they are unlikely to vote for a third-party candidate if their favorite does not win the nomination, with 27% who say it’s not at all likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

While the third-party feeling runs strongest among Palin supporters, 35% of those who support former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee feel that way, including 13% who say they are Very Likely to vote third-party if he doesn’t get the nomination. Among those who back former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 31% say a third-party vote is likely, but only nine percent (9%) say it’s Very Likely.

[More]

Update: Just for the record, Gov. Palin has said that she believes that the GOP, not a third party, is the best channel for Tea Party activists to use to accomplish their goals. Gov. Palin is a loyal Republican -- she always has been one. So she will most likely support whomever the GOP nominates for president if that candidate is not her.

Unlike Sarah Palin, however, your editor has never been a member of the Republican Party. The only political party I have ever registered under was the Democrat Party, back in my "New Democrat" days. When the New Democrats proved to be the Old Democrats with a different name, I changed my voter registration to independent. Although I have voted Republican for more than two decades, I've never trusted the GOP enough to sign up as a member. To this very day, the Republican Party has not shown me that it takes its own political platform seriously, and it continues to allow certain of its members to viciously attack good Reagan conservatives like Gov. Palin. When the GOP officially condemns such attacks and pledges to support its own platform, I may reconsider joining it.

So count me among those Palin supporters who "may" vote third party if the governor is not its nominee for president in 2012. If another Reagan conservative such as Sen. Jim DeMint is nominated, I'll support him. But I refuse to go into a voting booth and hold my nose again while marking the ballot for a Vichy Republican. If the nominee is a Conservative Lite or any other kind of Vichy Republican, I'll take a look at who the third parties have nominated. If there is a suitable Reagan conservative among those nominees, my support will go to him or to her. If not, I'll likely write in Gov. Palin's name on my ballot.

I'm a Reagan conservative, not a Republican. I owe the party of Bush, Dole and Frum nothing. That I am not a member of the GOP is the party's fault, not mine. And if some people are not happy with that attitude, then that's their problem, not mine.

- JP

New AK Poll: Joe 42, Lisa 27, What's-His-Name 25

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Results of a new Rasmussen poll just released this morning show most Alaska voters are neither impressed nor swayed by Sen. Lisa Murkowski's write-in bid to hang on to her U.S. Senate seat after being defeated in the Republican primary. The candidate backed by Sarah Palin has double-digit leads over both of his major opponents:

Republican Joe Miller attracts 42% of the vote in the first Rasmussen Reports poll of the Alaska Senate race since GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski announced her write-in campaign to try to keep her job.

The telephone survey of Likely Voters in Alaska shows Murkowski picking up 27% of the vote and Democrat Scott McAdams earning 25%. One percent (1%) say they’d prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

This race now moves from Leans GOP to Solid GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.

Miller, fueled by an endorsement from former Governor Sarah Palin and by strong Tea Party support, was the upset winner over Murkowski in the Alaska Republican Primary in late August. Despite pleas from the GOP national establishment to accept the primary’s verdict, Murkowksi announced a write-in campaign late last Friday.

Polling for write-in campaigns is always challenging, so results should be interpreted with caution. For this survey, Rasmussen Reports asked respondents about a choice between Miller and McAdams without mentioning Murkowski. That is the choice voters will see when they enter the voting booth. However, when response options were offered to survey respondents, Murkowski’s name was mentioned.

Miller picks up a solid majority of Republican voters, while McAdams wins most Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters, the three candidates are essentially even.

(More)

Full details at Rasmussen Reports.

According to The Hill, Beltway Republicans are very angry with Murkowski and have completely disowned her. Some, like Sen. John Kyl, were worried that her write-in campaign would split the vote, handing the seat to the Democrats. Others, including Rep. Mike Pence, were more perceptive, saying that the Murkowski bid would have no impact on the outcome and that Joe Miller would win in the general election.

- JP

Rasmussen Reports: 52% of Voters Say Their Views Closer to Palin’s Than Obama’s

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52 percent of Likely Voters say that their views are closer to Sarah Palin’s than they are to President Obama’s, according to a new Rasmussen Reports survey conducted September 18 and 19, 2010:

Just 40% say their views are closer to the president’s than to those of the former Alaska governor and Republican vice presidential candidate.

Among the Political Class, however, 68% say their views are more like Obama’s, while 63% of Mainstream voters describe their views as more like Palin’s.

Eighty-four percent (84%) of Republicans and 59% of voters not affiliated with either major party say their views are more like Palin’s. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats say they think more like the president.

[...]

Voters are fairly evenly divided in their views of Palin. Forty-eight percent (48%) view her favorably, while 49% hold an unfavorable opinion of her. This includes 21% with a Very Favorable view and 31% with a Very Unfavorable one. This marks little change from last November when Palin was on a national tour to promote her book, “Going Rogue.”

However, 76% of Republicans and 52% of unaffiliated voters now hold a favorable opinion of Palin.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of GOP voters said in November 2009 that Palin shares the values of most Republican voters throughout the nation. At the same time, 74% of Republicans said their party’s representatives in Congress have lost touch with GOP voters nationwide over the past several years.

The survey's sample was composed of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters, and the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

h/t: Don Surber

Update: Ed Morrissey takes a look at the internals:

"...on values, Palin clearly comes up aces against Obama. She beats Obama among both men (55/37) and women (48/43). She has majorities in every age demographic, even an 18-point majority among Obama’s core constituency of college-age voters (18-29YO, 52/34). Fourteen percent of Democrats choose Palin, and she wins handily among independents by more than 2-1, 59/27. She only loses in two income categories, both by pluralities: under $20K (40/42), and $60-75K (41/49)."

"How’s that Hopey Changey thing working out for Barack Obama? Apparently, rather poorly. As long as Palin’s on the stump — and she has been constantly in the public eye — she appears to trump Obama handily."

- JP

Raj: Sarah & Hillary smiling over Obama's low approval rating?

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Examiner Raj Rajagopalan cites the latest daily tracking poll results from Rasmussen and who besides Gov. Palin and other conservatives may be smiling over them:

President Obama’s job approval has dropped to historic low of 42%... An overwhelming majority of Americans, 57% of them, disapprove of the job President Obama is doing.

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These numbers should be extremely worrisome to President Obama.

These numbers should be music to the ears of Sarah Palin and Hillary Clinton.

Sarah Palin is fast emerging as the “Heir to Ronald Reagan”, and is one of the top favorites to win the 2012 Republican nomination. Conservatives see her as the “Next Ronald Regan”. Sarah Palin should be fastening her seat belts, given the downward spiral of Obama’s job numbers; she stands a good chance to move to the White House in 2012.

The Clintons may be rejoicing too, looking at Obama’s pathetic approval numbers. You never know, Hillary may challenge Obama in 2012 Democratic primaries. After all, Hillary lost the 2008 Presidential bid by a razor thin margin. After all, even Republicans would agree that Hillary would have made a better President than “Incompetent, Inexperienced Chicago Thug” Obama, any day, and any night.

While it's true that Hillary Clinton would be more competent than Barack Obama, she is every bit as much a radical leftist as he is, despite the centrist perception her image consultants labored to construct for her. Which, in our opinion, makes her even more dangerous than the man in the Oval Office. Just imagine how much farther down Karl Marx Highway Obama would have driven us if he actually knew what he was doing.

h/t: roy y

- JP

Barone: Palin running even with Obama?

Michael Barone, in his Beltway Confidential column in the Friday Washington Examiner, looks at recent polling results from Rasmussen. With a 3 percent margin of error, the poll essentially shows Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin each tied with President Obama in head to head matchups:

"I don’t think these numbers are anything like a reliable indicator of how the 2012 election cycle will unfold; they’re more like a referendum on Obama today, and not a particularly complimentary one. But it’s interesting that three Republican politicians, each with his or her own liabilities, are still running about even with Obama."

 What seems most significant to us about the more recent polls is that the trend shows Obama in decline and Sarah Palin on the rise. There are many political variables which can change between now and 2012, but it's interesting to track the numbers along the way. The critical variable among them, in our opinion, is what the unemployment picture will look like when campaigning begins in earnest for the 2012 elections. If it is still in double digits, the president will be in a world of hurt.

- JP

Palin Favorables: 51%, Obama Approval: 49%

According to Rasmussen:

Overall, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) now disapprove.

Also according to Rasmussen:

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of Sarah Palin?

21% Very favorable
30% Somewhat favorable
14% Somewhat unfavorable
29% Very unfavorable
5% Not sure

A Washington Post-ABC News Poll taken in July pegged Palin's favorables at just 40%. Though there are some differences in methodology between Rasmussen and WaPo polling, they are close enough to see the trend. Sarah Palin's approval numbers are rebounding, while President Obama's are in decline.

h/t: The Admonition

- JP

Parsing Monday's Poll Results

A new Rasmussen poll released Monday showing President Obama tied with Mitt Romney and six points up on Sarah Palin in a hypothetical 2012 match up is already the buzz of the blogs.

Groups of political animals with different interests will be posturing all week long based on this poll. Romney backers, for example, will be crowing loudly over it, and we don't want to rain on their parade. After all, their guy made a good showing, and they should have some fun with it. While we don't think this merits a ticker tape parade, if they are looking for an excuse to party, this should qualify. 

Sarah Palin's backers can also find some encouragement in the latest Rasmussen numbers. Being just six points back of the president is nothing to sneeze at, especially after another poll -- one conducted by Democrat polling firm Public Policy Polling in mid-March -- showed Obama with a 20-point lead over Palin in the same hypothetical circumstances. If one were to say the PPP poll is as accurate as the Rasmussen survey (which Democrats always do; Republicans will argue the point in Scott Rasmussen's favor), then Governor Palin has made a 14-point improvement against Obama in just four months. An April PPP poll had Obama ahead of Palin 53 percent to 41 percent -- a twelve-point spread. Today's Rasmussen results indicate that Gov. Palin has cut that lead in half in less than three months. But the 2012 elections are still years away, and Sarah Palin has not even started to campaign actively for 2012, if indeed she intends to do so.

The only group which will find nothing to help them put a positive spin on Monday's poll news is the collective of Obama fans. These results tend to support other Rasmussen polling which shows the president at his lowest approval rating since taking the oath of office in January. This is what Obama's supporters have feared the most. This is why they and their media hounds have been ruthlessly attacking Sarah Palin 24/7 since the day John McCain introduced her to the nation last August. The attacks continued even after the election was over and done with, and -- if anything -- they have actually increased since she announced on July 3 that she intended to resign her office before the end of the month.

The attacks on Sarah Palin will continue. But look for Mitt Romney, who thus far has managed to make himself a very small target to the Obama forces, to start taking more of his share of the heat. Alas, that's one of the "joys" of being a front runner in the wonderful world of American politics.

Indeed the Rasmussen Poll is an enjoyable coffee break. But all coffee breaks come to an end, and people have to get back to work. If the mission is to take back the House and reclaim as many Senate seats and governorships as possible in 2010, then the crucial battle is health care. Regardless of what you think of Dick Morris, we believe he was pretty close to the target when he said last month that health care could be Obo's Waterloo. In the words of Patrick Stewart's celluloid character, let's "make it so."

Update 1 : PPP is out with poll results of its own. PPP finds Obama leading Gov. Palin in that hypothetical 2012 match by eight points and Mitt Romney by nine:

"The numbers from this poll also seem to indicate that Sarah Palin did not do herself any immediate damage with her decision to resign as Governor of Alaska. Her favorability spread of 47/45 is the best PPP has found it over the course of six surveys conducted in the last four months. Also, her eight point deficit against Obama is the first time it's been in single digits over the course of these monthly 2012 polls. She also continues to have easily the highest percentage of GOP voters holding a positive opinion of her."

Also, an ABC News/Washington Post poll released Moday shows an increasing number of Americans view Obama as an old style, tax and spend Democrat.

Update 2: Our way of saying thanks for the shout out is a tip of the Texas Stetson to Tom in Alaska.

- JP