Zogby: Obama 41%, Palin 40%, +/- 2.2%

President's job approval lowest ever
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The findings of a new Zogby Poll indicate that Barack Obama and Sarah Palin are statistically tied in a hypothetical match up between the president (41 percent) and the former vice presidential candidate (40 percent). Just a single percentage point separates the two, and that difference is within the survey's 2.2 percent (plus or minus) margin of sampling error.

Results of the poll also indicate that President Obama's job approval rating has declined to 39 percent, the lowest point since he became president. Even worse for the president, his job approval rating among Democrats has dropped from 78 percent just a week ago to 72 oercent in this latest poll, which was conducted Nov. 19-22.

Zogby also found that the percentage of likely voters who say the U.S. is on the wrong track is now at the highest point of the Obama presidency at 69 percent.

- JP

Red Meat Conservative: Not all polls are conducted equally (KY Senate)

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Daniel at Read Meat Conservative explains how Survey USA's Kentucky Senate poll that rather conveniently was released this weekend illustrates how bogus party ID weightings can be used to distort a survey. After showing Palin-endorsed Rand Paul with a 15 point lead over Democrat Jack Conway only three weeks ago, now Survey USA purports to show Conway within two percentage points. Here's how S-USA fudged the numbers:

The poll taken earlier this month had a party ID breakdown of 47 D 10 I 42 R. That is actually slightly less favorable to the GOP than the disastrous 2008 turnout of 47 D 15 I 38 R (in which McCain still won). Remember that there is no doubt that there will be more Republicans turning out to vote in Kentucky this year. The only question is how much more? However, nobody disputes that the turnout figures will be much more favorable than those of the past two elections cycles.

This brings me to the most recent Survey USA poll that shows Paul leading Conway by a paltry 49-47 margin. The party ID weightings of the survey were as follows: 51 D 12 I 38 R! Does anyone really believe that a majority of the voter turnout in a staunch conservative state, in a staunch conservative year, in a state where Obama's approval ratings are in the toilet, will be Democrats? Is it really possible for voter turnout models in 2010 to be worse for the GOP than 2008?

Daniel cites Public Policy Polling (PPP) as another textbook example of how manipulating a survey's party ID weightings can make the poll results show anything an unscrupulous pollster wants them to show. Earlier in the election cycle, PPP polling showed Sen. Burr Richard (R-NC) virtually tied with his opponent, Democratic Elaine Marshall. This is because, Daniel argues, PPP was employing a similar turnout model to the one used by Survey USA in its latest survey. Since changing its methodology to employ a a more realistic turnout model, most PPP polls are showing the true advantage Republican candidates have over Democrats in an election cycle where voters are fed up with six years of a Congress under the control of radical leftist Dems.

The most recent survey by the more reliable Rasmussen Reports shows "Burr enjoying his best showing to date, with 54% support to Marshall's 38%." Likewise, Rasmussen's poll in the Kentucky Senate race conducted earlier this month showed Rand Paul with "his highest level of support since winning his party’s primary in May" -- leading Conway handily 54% to 39%.

As Daniel says, "The devil is always in the details." That's usually where you'll find a Democrat with a heavy thumb on the scales.

- JP

Andrew Malcolm on the Sarah Palin puzzle

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Our friend Andrew Malcolm at the LA Times' Top of the Ticket seems puzzled by a mixed bag of survey findings. Some polls have indicated that a plurality judge Sarah Palin as unapproved of and unqualified for the presidency, while another poll, the results of which were released Monday, find that a majority say that they Gov. Palin thinks like they do:

In a modern media age of images and sound bites, especially with so many feeling disappointed by another prominent pol, that's a powerful position to hold, even if she doesn't seek another political office.

Such an identification with voters, especially Republicans, independents and women, may help explain Palin's success endorsing primary candidates this year; about three out of four of her picks have won their race, including most recently Christine O'Donnell in Delaware and Joe Miller of Alaska. Very few of President Obama's high-profile endorsements have won, although voters in one poll claimed his endorsement outweighs Palin's.

A new Rasmussen Poll 23 months before the Republican nominating convention for 2012 finds that a majority of Americans (52%) now say their own personal views are closer to the former governor who didn't finish her first term than they are to the former senator who didn't finish his first term. You know, her down-to-earth talk about commonsense conservatism and reining in Washington's runaway spending and arrogance.

Only 40% say their views are closer to Barack Obama's and 48% now see his political views as extreme.

All part of the puzzling and polarizing political package that is Palin. Even her ardent detractors can't silently dismiss her as a nobody might merit. They must vociferously denounce her, which in politics is actually a sign of respect, the louder the better.

This is a puzzle that has a solution. There is a key to putting the right pieces in their proper places in the puzzle. First, you have to understand how and why the pieces were designed.

Comparing the results from different pollsters is like comparing apples, oranges and... rotten apples. There is a disparity in polling results because those who conduct these surveys do not use the same methodology to collect their data and evaluate it. A few pollsters, Rasmussen included, poll likely voters, while many survey registered voters, and some poll all adults. Different polling organizations use a variety of sample sizes from which to draw their conclusions. We've seen samples as small as 400 and as high as 20,000, but a sample of 800 to 1,000 is most common. A poll's margin of error is directly related to the size of the sample. The larger the sample, the smaller sampling error.

Some polling firms, instead of using random samples, design their samples to reflect preconceived notions of what the electorate should look like. Several firms deliberately include considerably more Democrats than Republicans in their samples. They do this, they say, because there are more registered Democrats than there are Registered Republicans. Indeed there are, but how many more are there? Some pollsters are still using relative party registration proportions as they existed years ago, ignoring recent trends who have shown a decrease in the numbers of registered Democrats and increases in the number of registered Republicans. Once the data is collected, some pollsters then "weight" their samples by adjusting the relative proportions of Democrats, Republicans and independents for reasons they claim make their samples more representative of the wider electorate.

All of these ways of massaging data make us recall what dear old Dr. Phil Taylor, our Statistics professor in graduate business school was fond of saying, which is that you can use statistics to prove any point you wish to make, whether it is valid or not. This is why we prefer the methodology used by Scott Rasmussen, who polls only registered voters. Otherwise, his polling methods are completely random, and he doesn't manipulate the data after he's collected it.

Interestingly, we have found that Gov. Palin polls most poorly in Washington Post/ABC surveys. By some strange coincidence, those two media outlets have been among her most severe critics. Go figure...

- JP

Rasmussen Reports: 52% of Voters Say Their Views Closer to Palin’s Than Obama’s

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52 percent of Likely Voters say that their views are closer to Sarah Palin’s than they are to President Obama’s, according to a new Rasmussen Reports survey conducted September 18 and 19, 2010:

Just 40% say their views are closer to the president’s than to those of the former Alaska governor and Republican vice presidential candidate.

Among the Political Class, however, 68% say their views are more like Obama’s, while 63% of Mainstream voters describe their views as more like Palin’s.

Eighty-four percent (84%) of Republicans and 59% of voters not affiliated with either major party say their views are more like Palin’s. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Democrats say they think more like the president.

[...]

Voters are fairly evenly divided in their views of Palin. Forty-eight percent (48%) view her favorably, while 49% hold an unfavorable opinion of her. This includes 21% with a Very Favorable view and 31% with a Very Unfavorable one. This marks little change from last November when Palin was on a national tour to promote her book, “Going Rogue.”

However, 76% of Republicans and 52% of unaffiliated voters now hold a favorable opinion of Palin.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of GOP voters said in November 2009 that Palin shares the values of most Republican voters throughout the nation. At the same time, 74% of Republicans said their party’s representatives in Congress have lost touch with GOP voters nationwide over the past several years.

The survey's sample was composed of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters, and the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

h/t: Don Surber

Update: Ed Morrissey takes a look at the internals:

"...on values, Palin clearly comes up aces against Obama. She beats Obama among both men (55/37) and women (48/43). She has majorities in every age demographic, even an 18-point majority among Obama’s core constituency of college-age voters (18-29YO, 52/34). Fourteen percent of Democrats choose Palin, and she wins handily among independents by more than 2-1, 59/27. She only loses in two income categories, both by pluralities: under $20K (40/42), and $60-75K (41/49)."

"How’s that Hopey Changey thing working out for Barack Obama? Apparently, rather poorly. As long as Palin’s on the stump — and she has been constantly in the public eye — she appears to trump Obama handily."

- JP

Jim Putnam: 'Obama is still wailin' about Palin'

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The "lamestream" media frequently pushes the meme that Sarah Palin "doesn't poll well," but it rarely never compares her poll numbers to those of President Obama. They avoid doing so because poll numbers for the two are in a statistical tie, i.e., within the respective margins of error of the polls. Were the media to admit this, that would be tantamount to admitting that if Sarah Palin is "polarizing" (the favorite media meme), the beta male in the White House is equally polarizing.

Jim Putnam, publisher of The Coltons Point Times in Maryland, took note of this in a Friday commentary. He goes on to point out the difference between polls and performance by contrasting the value of a Palin endorsement with the lack of same that comes with a nod from the president. Putnam also makes the more important point that recent polling results demonstrate that Sarah Palin's positions on the issues are consistent with the opinions of the majority of Americans, while Obama continues to push an agenda which surveys show defies the wishes of the majority on almost every major issue:

Not a day goes by that the liberal media doesn't try to make Palin look bad going so far as to induce her son-in-law to tell lies about the Palin family which he recently admitted. Whenever any poll that shows Palin in a negative light comes out it is shouted from the media castles in NYC to Washington, DC to further prove she is not a legitimate factor in this election year.

[...]

Right now in national polls Palin and Obama have almost identical poll numbers. Obama's favorable rating has slipped 19 percentage points in the past year while Palin's have consistently gone up. Most recent polls show Obama with a 43-44% favorable rating while VP Biden has a 26% favorable rating. Sarah Palin has a 40-41% favorable rating as a political figure and she doesn't even hold a political office and is not running for anything right now.

On the negative side Obama and Biden have 48% disapproval, their highest negative numbers since being elected. Palin has about 50-51% negative which means Obama, Biden and Palin all are within the margin of error for the polls so they are virtually tied.

What has Obama wailin' about Palin is the public opinion on the issues and policies. Palin opposes Obama on the Arizona Immigration law and the federal efforts to block enforcement of the law. Most recent national polls show 61% of the public support Arizona's law while 56% of the public oppose Obama's efforts to block the law. Palin stands with Main Street America, Obama does not.

In issue after issue Palin agrees with the national mood of the electorate whether it is offshore oil drilling, a drilling moratorium, opposition to bailouts and stimulus, balancing the national budget, eliminating the national debt, creating a sensible comprehensive energy policy, even health care reform, yet the media tries to paint her as far outside the mainstream of American politics. They are fools.

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With four months until the election, she has chalked up victory after victory while Obama has lost the major races noted previously and is stunned that many Democrats don't even want him to campaign in their states. Oh yes, Obama's got the Wailin' Palin Blues...

Read the full opinion piece here.

- JP