Some predictions for 2010 from Race 4 2012

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The staff at political website Race4 2012 recently posted their predictions for the coming new year. We've excerpted those portions of their conjecture which pertain to Sarah Palin:

Adam Brickley - "Sarah Palin continues her recovery and cements herself as de-facto leader of the GOP after vigorously campaigning through 2010, after which she begins work on a second and more issue-oriented book."

Adam Graham - "Sarah Palin will continue to demur [on a presidential run] until early-to-mid 2011."

Alex Knepper - "Sarah Palin refuses to endorse Mark Kirk in the primary, but endorses him in the general." Knepper says that Sarah Palin will be more selective than Romney, Huckabee and Pawlenty on which candidates she will campaign for in 2010, and she will wait until the spring or summer of 2011 to announce her candidacy for the White House. He predicts that Mitt Romney's book will sell only moderately well, and pundits will make the expected comparisons between Romney and Sarah Palin. Finally from Knepper, "Sarah Palin endorses an anti-establishment candidate in hopes of using her power to sway an election. This will be a test of her influence. Marco Rubio will also gain her endorsement in the spring of 2010. Don’t rule out an endorsement of Peter Schiff in Connecticut, either."

Aron Goldman predicts that Rick Perry will defeat Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Texas GOP primary. Perry has Sarah Palin's endorsement, and she has pledged to campaign with him in the Lone Star State.

Bob Hovic - "Five serious candidates... will be ranked as follows by most observers at year-end: Romney, Huckabee, Palin, Pawlenty, Daniels – though there will still not be enough separation among the top three to declare a true front-runner."

DaveG - "Tea Partiers will divide between dueling revolutionary candidates in Sarah Palin and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson. The latter will appeal to many of the same groups that Ron Paul did, only on a broader scale, including social libertines and America First types." Also, "Sarah Palin will continue her ascent among Republican primary voters due to her status as a symbol of rebellion against President Obama and the present political establishment and economic and cultural elites. Pundits will begin to wonder whether anti-Palin Republicans will be able to coalesce around a single alternative to the Alaskan, or whether the rest of the party will fracture a dozen different ways, leaving Palin with a small but determined plurality in 2012."

Dustin Siggins - "Sarah Palin drops out of the running for the Republican nomination."

Kristofer Lorelli - "Aron Goldman will not warm up to the idea of President Sarah Palin."

Tommy Boy - "Sarah Palin will win the 'most admired woman' Gallup poll in 2010." Also, "Race42012 will score an interview with Sarah Palin." And, "A scientific poll will show Sarah Palin tied or leading Barack Obama in a hypothetical 2012 contest."

Read all of the 2010 tea leaves at Race 4 2012.

- JP

Adam Brickley on Sarahtarianism

Adam Brickley has posted an op-ed at Race 4 2012 titled Sarahtarianism, a word he's coined to refer to the classic, "pre-McCain" Palin political personna. That Sarah Palin, says Brickley, was much more libertarian than the social conservative political definition that the media applied to the former governor.

Brickley's arguments are as follows:

"1. The Huckabee Myth:  Sarah Palin is not, and has never been, competing for the same votes as Mike Huckabee."

Huckabee is something of a compassionate conservative/social conservative (think George W. Bush after a neoconectomy), while Palin is more focused on fiscal and energy security issues. 

"2. Palinistas = Fredheads"

Fred Thompson has indeed aligned himself closely with Palin, and his wife and talk show partner Jeri Thompson is a spokesperson for Team Sarah. Thompson and Palin both subscribe to the modern federalist view of a limited federal government with an emphasis on the rights and responsibilities of states and individuals.

"3. The Rudy Factor"

Rudy Giuliani has befriended and supported Sarah Palin, not Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney. Rudy and Sarah, who were both mayors and corruption fighters, have a kind of kinship that Hizzonor shares with no other major GOP contender for 2012. Brickley says that a Giuliani endorsement of Sarah Palin would likely give her a lock on the libertarian wing of the GOP. Combine the libertarians with the Frederalists, and you have a force to be reckoned with. 

"4. New Hampshire, Baby!"

Brickley doesn't agree with the conventional wisdom which holds that Sarah Palin will concede New Hampshire to Mitt Romney so she can concentrate on winning Iowa. He argues that New hampshire folks have much in common with Alaskans, and those are voters that Palin understands best and knows how to win over. He also believes that she stands a good chance of capturing the votes of Granite Staters who voted for McCain. Finally, Brickley cites Mitt’s "potential for last-minute implosion" as reasons for Sarah to invest in a strong New Hampshire effort, as a win or strong second-place finish there would give her great momentum.

While we agree wholeheartedly with Brickley's first three points we're not so sure about the fourth one. We recall this Hotline item from May:

Sources familiar with Romney's activities say the Republican, whose 2008 presidential campaign fizzled, intends to make his primary residence at the family vacation home in Wolfeboro, NH, which is also a favorite vacation spot of Romney's children and grandchildren.

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Romney has already established a beachhead in the Granite State; in March, his Free and Strong America PAC registered with the NH Secretary of State's office. The PAC made a $1,000 contribution to former GOP congressman Jeb Bradley, who won a special election for a state Senate seat that includes Wolfeboro on April 21. Bradley did not endorse in the 2008 GOP presidential primary.

Meanwhile, Romney supporters from the 2008 New Hampshire primary--which he narrowly lost to eventual GOP nominee, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)--continue to stay in touch with each other. His state campaign manager, Jim Merrill, keeps up a busy e-mail communication with Romney supporters in the state and occasionally meets with them. "We stay in close contact," said Merrill, who added that he performs this task "on my own" and not in coordination with Romney's PAC.

"No doubt in my mind that they are doing the necessary maintenance to keep their network in New Hampshire together," noted veteran Granite State GOP operative Mike Dennehy, who was a senior adviser to McCain's 2008 campaign.

Establishing residency in NH could raise expectations for Romney's performance in the state's 2012 primary, but the state is also flush with important contests in the upcoming 2010 midterm elections, where Romney could lend a hand.

It's not that we don't think former Governor Palin could make a credible showing in New Hampshire -- she did appear at well-attended and enthusiastic 2008 campaign events in Dover, Laconia and Salem -- but Romney has a very big head start on her there. She has yet to build a New Hampshire organization (or in any state other than Alaska, for that matter), but if she's interested in making a run, now is the time for Sarah Palin to organize in the key states.

- JP

Winning is the best revenge.

At Race 4 2012, Adam Graham looks at all the moonbat madness just since Sarah Palin resigned one week ago and makes a good point:

"The left has not ceased it’s relentless assault on Sarah Palin. She is more hated and more targeted than George W. Bush. This to me should eventually raise the chances of her running for President. If no matter what you do, there will be a concerted campaign of personal destruction headed your way, why not make it count for something?"

We don't want to pressure Sarah Palin to do anything she doesn't want to do. But Adam's common-sense reasoning is a good argument for an eventual Palin run for the White House, if she decides that she wants to do so.

Winning is the best revenge. But just by making a run for it, she would make some moonbat heads explode.  We have plenty of popcorn on hand.

- JP