John Fund: Murkowski's own internal poll shows Miller closing the gap (Updated)

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The Wall Street Journal's John Fund reports that Lisa Murkowski's own internal polling shows Joe Miller is closing the gap. This confirms the finds of the RT Nielson poll which revels has Sen. Murkowski's lead has shrunk to 47% to 35%. Just a month ago, an independent survey by Anchorage-based Ivan Moore Research showed Murkowski leading Miller by 62 percent to 30 percent. Not only has much of Murkowski's lead evaporated, but she's now "underwater," below the 50 percent level of support where an incumbent can be considered safe:

Ms. Murkowski has outspent her rival by almost 20 to 1, but she has yet to demonstrate a secure grip on a seat that she was appointed to by her father Frank when he was governor in 2002. In 2004, Ms. Murkowski won only 58% against an underfunded challenger in the GOP primary and almost lost to a Democrat that fall.

Ms. Murkowski insists she has since accumulated political clout that Alaskans would be foolish to throw away. She has carved a middle-of-the-road path and has continued the tradition of lobbying for pork-barrel projects for her home state, a stance raising the hackles of many conservatives. In a posting on Facebook, Sarah Palin accused Senator Murkowski of becoming "part of the big government problem in Washington."

Fund says Miller will be able to tap into Gov. Palin's network of grass-roots supporters in Alaska in his efforts to increase turnout. Midterm primary elections have traditionally had low voter turnout.

Updates...

Erick Erickson agrees. Sure, Murkowski is the heavy favorite, but don't count Joe Miller out just yet. It's not like there haven't been major political upsets in Alaska politics before.

John Gizzi disagrees:

"Miller is impressive but this doesn’t look like his race or year."

If not this year, then perhaps 2014 in a challenge to Democrat Mark Begich, as was pointed out in the comments.

- JP

Quote of the Day (June 4, 2010)

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John Fund:

"Sarah Palin is clearly taking a political risk by backing an underdog challenger against a sitting GOP senator. Ms. Murkowski has $2 million in her campaign treasury, and her approval numbers among Alaska Republicans rival those of Ms. Palin herself. She also has the power of incumbency. But then not many election years have been more promising for outsiders seeking to overthrow established incumbents. Mr. Miller, a former judge, has a compelling campaign style and will be able to draw on Ms. Palin's network of grass-roots supporters in Alaska to turn out the vote in what is traditionally a low-turnout primary."

- JP

WSJ's John Fund: Speakers Bureau a big plus for Palin

The Wall Street Journal's John Fund says that Sarah Palin is getting the reputation of being a "no-show." We don't think that's entirely fair, but it has become the media narrative. Sarah Palin has few aides, and their plates are more than full. They simply don't have the time or resources to get on top of every story that is being pushed by the state-controlled media and every promoter who wants to use the former governor's image and her name to sell tickets to their events.

If what Politico is reporting is true, Fund says, all that is about to change:

"Last week, organizers for an Alaska initiative that would require that parents be notified before any child got an abortion reported that Ms. Palin had agreed to appear at their kickoff event but now wouldn't show. Ms. Palin's staff insists she wasn't invited, and that she was out of the state."

"Normally, such incidents can be put down to a 'she-said, they said' kind of dispute. But the Alaska no-show marked the fourth time in recent months that an anticipated Palin speech had fallen through because her staff insisted she had never confirmed it. Here's hoping Washington Speakers Bureau, which apparently already is booking events for her... will now be able to minimize the crossed signals."

Signing with the Speakers Bureau is a smart move by the 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate, and it doesn't come a day too soon, in our opinion.

- JP

Commentaries on the Liberation of Sarah - Pt. 2

This is the second in a series in which TX4P recommends some of the best writing which chronicles the liberation of Sarah Palin from the ball and chain of the Alaska governors office to her new role as a leading American conservative coalition builder.

In "Why Palin Quit: Death by a Thousand FOIAs" the WSJ's John Fund says Palin's resignation was not to get a head start on running for president in 2012:

Contrary to most reports, her decision had been in the works for months, accelerating recently as it became clear that controversies and endless ethics investigations were threatening to overshadow her legislative agenda. "Attacks inside Alaska and largely invisible to the national media had paralyzed her administration," someone close to the governor told me. "She was fully aware she would be branded a 'quitter.' She did not want to disappoint her constituents, but she was no longer able to do the job she had been elected to do. Essentially, the taxpayers were paying for Sarah to go to work every day and defend herself."

In "How Is Stepping Down Bad for Palin?" columnist and commentator Andrea Tantaros looks at the impact of the resignation and doesn't see much of a downside:

Whether Palin decides to become the conservative Oprah, a best-selling author, the country’s first female president (or all of the above) she is the next generation, the new guard, and the GOP’s MVP.

From a messaging standpoint Palin is perfect. She is also the only one who can reasonably argue that she hasn't been part of either the Republican or Democratic web of Washington politics.

No bailouts, big spending, or Buenos Aires lust romps.

Her fundraising potential is potent. Her support is solid from the right. She is poised to fill a leadership vacuum and there is no better time than now, when Obama’s numbers (especially with independents) are at the precipice of plunging. The iron is scalding hot and Palin, ever the shrewd politician, knows exactly when to strike.

In "Sarah agonistes" Washington Times columnist Tony Blankley warns against following the conventional wisdom in unconventional times or using it to judge unconventional politicians:

I have had the honor of working for two politicians before they rose to their heights (as well as during their heights) -- Ronald Reagan and Newt Gingrich. And though they were vastly different men, both were considered, for different reasons, to be beyond the political pale in their earlier political years. If only Mr. Reagan could behave more like George Herbert Walker Bush, and if only Newt Gingrich could behave more like Bob Michel, maybe they could succeed better at elective politics.

So, last weekend, the professionals were confidently sneering that Mrs. Palin had made a fatal mistake by giving up the governorship of Alaska, because everyone knows an aspiring candidate for higher office clings to his or her current office while running for the next one.

Well, I'm not so sure being an incumbent is an advantage if the world seems to be going to hell and government is seen to be at least part of the cause for that journey. And though many a conventional politician might be seen as a quitter if he resigned from office -- I have a very strong hunch Mrs. Palin is constitutionally incapable of being seen as a quitter. Because she is not. She is constantly taking on the biggest challenge on her horizon.

Other posts in this series:

Commentaries on the Liberation of Sarah - Pt. 1

- JP

Quote of the Day (July 7, 2009)

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The Wall Street Journal's John Fund:

"By sidestepping her critics, Sarah Palin is now moving to another playing field where she has more control over the rules of the game. Her friends say her critics may call her a 'quitter' now, but they should wait and see what new role she decides to fill. She may wind up having the last laugh."

- JP